Week 14: Bengals v Colts - What To Look For

The weather may not be fun for the fans at the game, but it should help the Bengals. When you get a dome team at your home in cold weather and elements, it always helps. Even more so when your team is the better running team. For a guy like Luck, who played in California and now in a dome, getting him out in the cold may be a huge benefit for the Bengals…not to mention it should cause Heyward-Bey to drop even more balls.

 

 

So, with the weather rolling in, here is What to Look For….

 

When the Colts Run the Ball:

Colts Running Attack: 20^th – 109.4 ypg

Bengals Run Defense: 8^th – 101.1 ypg

Richardson was benched last week in favor of 5^th year pro Donald Brown. While I have been surprised that the Richardson trade has not worked out, I can’t blame the Colts for tapping Brown as their new lead back. While he only has 71 carries in 2013, Brown has a 5.3 ypc average behind the same line that Richardson is getting just 2.8 behind. Despite Brown’s 5.3 ypc number, I do not expect this Colts 20^th ranked running attack to find much success on the ground at PBS. A career backup running back, on the road, going up against a top 10 run defense with a suspect o-line at best, is likely going to prove to be too much for Donald Brown and the Colts. Brown averaged 3.9 ypc last week against the 17^th ranked Titans run defense in the comforts of the Indy dome.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Colts Throw the Ball:

Colts Passing Attack: 20^th – 224.1 ypg

Bengals Pass Defense: 8^th – 213.8 ypg

Luck is going to be a great QB. However, he lacks the surrounding talent, and with the loss of Wayne, this has become even more apparent. In the 5 games since Wayne went down, the Colts have been blown out twice, barely won the other 3 against inferior teams, and Luck has just 5 TDs to 5 INTs. In the 7 games with Wayne, Luck had 10 TDs and 3 INTs. With the recent struggles of Luck, the lack of receiving weapons, the elements and the Bengals defense, I see this being a very difficult game for Luck. I believe the Bengals will be able to shut down the Colts run game and get pressure on Luck with just 4 guys most of the time, leaving 7 guys to cover a weak receiving corps.  That should be a recipe for success for the Bengals and a recipe for failure for the Colts.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

Bengals Running Attack: 18^th – 112.6 ypg

Colts Run Defense: 29^th – 128.6 ypg

The Colts run defense is bad and will likely be in for a long day tomorrow. While the Bengals run game has been a disappointment most of the year, they looked to catch fire last Sunday when Whitworth moved to LG and Collins took over at LT. With Zeitler back and bad weather predicted, I look for a big game on the ground for the Bengals.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Bengals Passing Attack: 12^th – 251.1 ypg

Colts Pass Defense: 17^th – 238.7 ypg

The Colts corners have 8 INTs on the year, not what you want to hear when Dalton has been spending a lot of his free time throwing to guys wearing the opposing jerseys. However, I don’t see the Colts secondary being equipped to cover all of the Bengals weapons. The Colts have only faced two teams with passing options like the Bengals (Den and AZ) and they surrendered 700 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT to those passing attacks. I see Green and Eifert having big days on Sunday, especially if the Colts have to bring an 8^th guy down into the box.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Special Teams:

Kickoff Returns: Colts - 12^th (24.2 avg); Bengals – 8^th (24.5 avg)  

Punt Returns: Colts – 14^th (9.3 avg); Bengals – 23rd (8.0)

Kickers: Adam Vinatieri is 26/29 (89.7%) and 22/23 inside 50 yards. While his 89.7% is just average (15^th), it is much better than Nugent’s 16/20 (80.0% - T-23^rd) and 13/16 inside 50. Hopefully this game does not come down to a FG kicking contest. With Vinatieri’s clutch kicking and ability to kick in bad weather (see the “Tuck Game”), the Colts would win.

 

Punters: Colts – 25^th (38.2 Net); Bengals – 5^th (41.6 Net); Punts inside the 20: Colts T-23^rd (17); Bengals T-9^th (23).

Kick Coverage: Colts – 19^th (24.2 avg); Bengals 14^th (22.9 avg)

Punt Coverage: Colts – 30^th (14.5 avg); Bengals – 8^th (6.9 avg)

 

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaches:

While the Colts made the playoffs last year, it was without Pagano. Pagano is basically a rookie head coach and the Colts have been struggling without Wayne. Lewis, on the other hand, has had to deal with the loss of the best DT in the game, the team’s best CB (Hall) and yet the defense seems not to have lost a beat. Likabiliy: Pagano > Lewis. NFL Coaching Experience: Lewis > Pagano

Advantage: Bengals

Key to the Game:

Turnovers. It sounds like a cop-out, but the Bengals are better than the Colts in every aspect of the game. The way I see it, the Bengals should be able to win this game handedly…as long as Dalton does not turn the ball over, something that seems very difficult for Dalton of late.

 

Prediction:

If the Bengals want the 3 seed, they have to get this win. A victory would also keep them in the running for the 2 seed. I think the Bengals realize this sense of urgency and will ride the fans and the weather to victory.

Bengals 27, Colts 17