Week 15: Bengals v Steelers - What To Look For

Certain teams seem to have a mental edge over other teams. Certain stadiums are harder to play in than others. And certain situations make teams more dangerous. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Steelers fit all three of these characteristics. First, Ben Roethlisberger is 14-5 against the Bengals, the Steelers lead the overall series 52-34, and ever since I can remember, the Steelers have seemed to have a mental edge over the Bengals and the Bengals seem to be aware of this – whether they believe it or not. Second, while their 3-3 record at Heinz Field may not make it apparent, beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh is a tough task. Mike Tomlin has a 39-15 home record since taking over the Steelers. Lastly, we all know how “dangerous a wounded animal” is. Especially a wounded animal with nothing to lose. The Steelers, slight as it may be, still have a shot at the playoffs if they win out, and after this game, they have winnable games against Green Bay and Cleveland. While some may see that as pressure, I see that as a giving them the ability to play loose. The Bengals have all the pressure in this game and come in favored. The Steelers are going to throw everything they can at the Bengals and capitalize on anything and everything that goes their way….oh yeah, this is also a 2-time Super Bowl winning quarter back we are talking about. 2 game lead in the division or not, this is a very big and very dangerous game for the Bengals.

 

 

So, here is What to Look For….

 

When the Steelers Run the Ball:

Steelers Running Attack: 31^st – 77.4 ypg

Bengals Run Defense: 5^th – 98.2 ypg

It’s hard to believe we are talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers being ranked 31^st in the NFL in rushing and averaging a paltry 77.4 ypg. The Steelers took Le’Veon Bell in the 2^nd round to help improve the run offense, and though he has 5 TDs, Bell is the only Pittsburgh RB with a TD (rushing or passing) and is averaging just 3.4 ypc. In fact, there is not a RB on the Steelers averaging 4.0 ypc. Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Bengals bring the #5 ranked rush defense to the Steel City and provide and extremely tough test for the Steelers. 4 weeks ago in Pittsburgh, against the 6^th ranked rushing defense (Detroit), the Steelers racked up 40 rushing yards and in their last two games combined, the Steelers have 156 yards rushing. The Bengals have 164 and 155 rushing yards in each of their last two games. With the Steelers having the 7^th ranked passing offense and throwing the ball 64.33% of the time (more than all but 3 teams), the Bengals will certainly key on the passing game and invite the Steelers to run the ball. With this weak Steelers O-Line going against a strong Bengals front 7, I see the Steelers struggles in the run game continuing Sunday night.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Steelers Throw the Ball:

Steelers Passing Attack: 7^th – 266.8 ypg

Bengals Pass Defense: 8^th – 222.4 ypg

With the 7^th ranked passing attack combined with the injuries the Bengals have in the secondary and the issues the Steelers have running the ball, expect the Steelers game plan to involve lots of passing plays. In their first matchup, the Steelers clearly saw something they liked in their matchups with Adam Jones – and they exploited it. In that matchup, Jones was the 3^rd CB. On Sunday night, the Bengals are going to be leaning on Jones as their top CB with Kirkpatrick on the other side and Ghee or Crocker in the slot. With the Steelers showing how they could exploit Jones, I cringe at what they may do with Jones as the top CB and Kirkpatrick and Ghee as #2 and3. If Kirkpatrick and Ghee don’t prove they can hold their own, it could be a long night for the Bengals secondary – and the Bengals.  Pressure is always key to shutting down a potent passing attack, with the injuries in the Bengals secondary, it will be imperative for the Bengals to get pressure on Roethlisberger. With 36 sacks on the year, and going against a line that has allowed 40 sacks, the Bengals should be able to get to Roethlisberger. If they can, they can hide the inexperienced secondary. If they can’t, the Bengals may need a lot of points to win. While I would still be concerned and give the Steelers the edge in this matchup, I would feel a lot if Newman was healthy. Without him, the Steelers have a huge opportunity.   

Advantage: Steelers

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

Bengals Running Attack: 14^th – 115.8 ypg

Steelers Run Defense: 24^th – 120.2 ypg

The Bengals run game has been significantly better since Whitworth moved to LG and Collins to LT (159.5 ypg). Thanks to the Clint Boling injury, the Bengals now have the best and most athletic LG in the NFL. I like this new line and they should find continued success going up against a bad Steelers run defense (24^th). The Steelers will be without RE Brett Keisel (foot) Sunday night and his backup, Ziggy Hood, has been a big disappointment as a 1^st round pick. Along with Keisel, NT Steve McLendon, the only Steelers lineman with a forced fumble (2), is questionable with an ankle injury and hasn’t practiced all week.  Another encouraging sight for Bengals fans was the 140 all-purpose yards last week for Giovani Bernard. Maybe Jay Gruden is finally starting to realize the weapon he has in Bernard. The last time these two met, Bernard had 2 TDs, but only 9 touches. I would expect to see a lot more touches for Bernard in this second matchup, and given the new Bengals line and the Steelers poor run defense, I would expect good results. On a cold, and possibly sloppy night in Pittsburgh, look for the Bengals run game to continue its’ recent success.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Bengals Passing Attack: 12^th – 252.9 ypg

Steelers Pass Defense: 7^th – 221.8 ypg

The strength of the Steelers defense is their pass defense. Ike Taylor and Dick LeBeau have always had success shutting down the Bengals top receivers and in week 2, it was no different. Despite 14 targets, AJ Green caught just 6 balls for 41 yards and 0 TDs. Some of this was the result of terrible passes by Dalton and some was the result of good defense by the Steelers. In their week 2 matchup, Dalton had 280 yards and a respectable 81.7 rating, but he was terribly inaccurate (55.6%) – especially in the 1^st half – and had a QBR of just 39.5. The difference in this game and their first matchup is the emergence of secondary weapons. In week 2, the Bengals had yet to find a #2 receiver and Bernard and Eifert had yet to establish their role in the offense. The Steelers will see a Bengals offense on Sunday night that spreads the ball around much more than they did in their first matchup and one thing is for sure, Green will not receive 1/3 of Dalton’s passes. While I would expect Taylor and LeBeau to continue their success on Bengals #1 receivers, the Bengals secondary options (Jones, Bernard, Eifert, etc) should be able to expose the Steelers as a result of the attention paid to Green. As much success as Taylor and LeBeau have had against the Bengals #1 receivers in the past, the Bengals #2’s (see Houshmanzedah) have found success against LeBeau. As long as Dalton has time – and with this new line, he should - the Bengals should have opportunities. Since Whitworth took over at LG, the Bengals have surrendered 0 sacks. This will be a tough matchup, but with the plethora of weapons the Bengals have at the skill positions, combined with the advantage they have on the line, I give the Bengals the advantage in this matchup.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Special Teams:

Kickoff Returns: Steelers – 22^nd (22.3 avg); Bengals – 10^th (24.9 avg)  

Punt Returns: Steelers – 11^th (10.8 avg); Bengals – 15^th (9.1 avg)

Kickers: Shaun Suisham is 24/26 (92.3%) and ranks 7^th in the NFL. At 16/20 (80.0%) Nugent ranks 23^rd.

 

Punters: Steelers – Net 35.6 – 31^st; Bengals – Net 41.6 5^th; Punts inside the 20: Steelers 33^rd (9); Bengals T-8^th (24).

Kick Coverage: Steelers – 6^th (20.8 avg); Bengals 11^th (22.4 avg)

Punt Coverage: Steelers – 15^th (8.4 avg); Bengals – 6^th (6.6 avg)

The Bengals have a big advantage in the punting game which could lead to a victory in the field position battle. In what I would expect to be a tough and close game, field position could be big.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaches:

Stop the press! I am giving Marvin Lewis a “Push” with a Super Bowl winning coach! 2 years ago, it would be a disgrace to consider Lewis on the same level as Tomlin. Lewis is 4 games over .500 for his career and 0-4 in the playoffs, while Mike Tomlin is 27 games over .500, has a 5-3 post season record, a Super Bowl ring and another Super Bowl appearance. However, Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game in 4 years, he is 13-17 in his last 30 games, has a team that seems to be going the wrong direction, a locker room that seems dysfunctional, an aging team that is tuning him out and now he is trying to cheat to win games. Lewis on the other hand is 19-11 in his last 30 and his team is young and seems to be getting better. I almost convinced myself to give Lewis the straight up advantage! Almost.

Advantage: Push

Key to the Game:

Pressure on Roethlisberger. The Bengals are vulnerable to the Steelers passing attack and are going to need pressure on Roethlisberger to mask the vulnerability. If they let Roethlisberger extend plays, bad things will happen. If they can get pressure on him but keep him in the pocket while doing so, they can help their secondary and take away the one advantage the Steelers have in this matchup

 

Prediction:

This game scares me and I don’t think it will be easy. However, when push comes to shove, the Bengals are the better and more talented team and I believe their talent and depth will win out in a tough and close game.

Bengals 21, Steelers 17