Throw out the records when these two teams meet. Generally speaking, the games are close and home field advantage is important in this matchup. 4 weeks ago, these two hooked up in Cincinnati for an unexpectedly close game, 34-27. Bengals fans (and Browns fans) believed it was going to be a blowout. Ultimately the difference in the game turned out to be a punt return TD by Adam Jones on Cleveland’s first punt of the game. Despite Cleveland’s 0-5 record, like Miami, I believe this team is better than their record indicates and I expect another close game that will hinge on turnovers.
What to Look For:
When the Browns Run the Ball
Look for the Browns to try and establish Richardson early
and often in this game in an effort to alleviate pressure off Weeden and
neutralize the Bengals pass rush. And why not? In game 1, Richardson went for
109 yds on 19 carries. However, the Bengals run defense has improved since the
last time these two met. In the last two weeks, the Bengals have been matched
up against a top RB each week in MJD and Reggie Bush, and the last two weeks
they have done very well (MJD: 38 yards to MJD on 13 carries and Bush: 48 yards
on 19 carries). While I don’t believe
they hold Richardson to similar stats, I do believe they hold him to less the 109
he got in game 1 on just 19 carries.
When the Browns Throw the Ball
In the first game, the Browns had success throwing the ball.
Weeden had 322 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs on 70% completion. In fact, that is the
only game Weeden has not thrown a pick. In games against teams not named the
Bengals, Weeden has 3 TD to 9 INTs. Lucky for Weeden and the Browns, the
Bengals defense has not improved at forcing INTs (just 1 through week 5).
Despite his success in week 1, I still expect Cleveland to try and lean on
Richardson and try and pick chose when they throw. If they get Richardson
going, I expect Weeden to play well against this secondary. However, if the
Bengals run defense can play like they have the past 2 weeks and stop
Richardson early, I expect the Bengals pass rush to effect Weeden and force him
into turnovers. Keep an eye on Carlos Dunlap. In the Week 2 matchup, the
Bengals did not get much pressure on Weeden (2 sacks). With Dunlap back, I
expect that to be different this time around.
When the Bengals Run the Ball
In the Week 2 matchup, the Bengals and BJGE had marginal
success running the ball (75 yards on 21 carries – 3.6 ypc). This time around,
I expect the Bengals to try and force the run. May seem odd with the lack of
success they have had the past 2 games in the running game, but, that is
exactly why they will try and establish the running game early and often in
this one. Gruden himself said they abandoned the run too early last week – in coach
speak, that means they are going to force it this week. And why not? The Browns
are coming off a week where they saw their defense give up 243 yards rushing to
the Giants for a whopping 7.1 ypc. If the Bengals can get some early success in
the run game, and I think they will, look for some big plays to open up in the
run game.
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
In Week 2, Dalton had a good game (318 yds, 3 TDs, and 1 INT)
and was able to spread the ball around (6 players with 2 or more catches). The
difference is this week the Browns get Joe Hayden back. Hayden is arguably one
of the top CBs in the league and has done a good job in previous matchups (in
both college and NFL) against AJ Green. The question is, will Hayden be rusty?
This is a tough matchup to come back to after 4 weeks off. I expect the
presence of Hayden to present 2 opportunities for the Bengals passing game: 1)
with Hayden covering Green, the Bengals, like Week 2, will need production from
other receivers, and 2) with Hayden covering Green, there will be times where
the Browns do not provide him safety help, therefore giving the Bengals the
opportunity to try and let Green beat Hayden one-on-one. I believe Green will
take advantage of at least one of those opportunities and beat Green deep and I
believe the other receivers will step up.
Conclusion
This is the type of game that scares me, for the following
reasons:
- This is a classic ‘Trap game.’ A winless team, on the road, with what could be a crucial Sunday night matchup with the Steelers next week.
- The Browns have lost 11 straight games dating back to last year.
- The Browns have lost 11 straight division games, dating back to 2010.
- Marvin Lewis is 14-5 against the Browns, 3-0 against Shurmur.
- This is a game the Bengals should win.
- This is a game the Bengals need to win.
- This is a game that most every stats points to the Bengals winning….
…..that, is exactly why this game scares me. That and the
fact that
- Marvin Lewis is 11-10 against rookie QBs….?
- The Browns are starting a rookie QB.
- The Browns are better than their record indicates.
- The Browns have hung around or lead in each game.
- And, the Browns are ‘Due’ for a win, and a division win, at some point, right?
With that being said, this is a game the Bengals must win,
especially after giving up a must win last week. I believe it is close, maybe
closer than it should be, but I believe we see a reemergence of the Bengals
offense, the run game in particular, and the Bengals pull off the win in
Cleveland.
Prediction
Bengals 27, Browns 20
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