Bengals v Steelers Preview

This game will be played in Cincinnati, which means the Steelers have a better chance of winning than if it were played in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a staggering10-1 in their last 11 trips to the Queen City, and only 6-4 in Pittsburgh during that same stretch - essentially making PBS their home away from home. No surprise, with the Steelers dominance in Cincinnati and the Bengals back to back losses to Cleveland and Miami, the Steelers are favored yet again in PBS. Many (including NBC) thought this game would be a big game. Well, it is a big game, but probably not for the reason everyone expected. At the start of the season, this game had the making of potential AFC North implications - now it looks like a game merely to keep a season alive. A loss by the Steelers would drop them to 2-4 and in danger of missing the playoffs, while a loss by the Bengals would drop them to 3-4 and 1-3 in the division. At 3-4, with all the mediocrity in the AFC, the Bengals would still be alive in the wildcard picture, but it would end their chances at a division title. Here’s what to watch for in Week 7 Bengals v Steelers:

 

When the Steelers Run the Ball

The Steelers have built a reputation on hardnosed, old school, ground and pound football. It used to be when you played the Steelers, you knew what to expect. They were going to run it right at you and bet that you couldn’t stop them. Most of the time they were correct. Even when teams knew it was coming, the Steelers would run the ball straight down their throat (and the Bengals had the largest throat of them all – insert joke here). Not this year’s team. Somewhere Jerome Bettis (who is from Detroit by the way) is cringing watching this paltry, 31^st ranked run offense. The problems in the Steelers run game is twofold: 1) Rashard Mendenhall has been hurt and will be out again (and Redman (also out), Dwyer and Rainey are not NFL caliber starting RBs; and 2) this Steelers OL, even healthy, is not as good as Steelers O-Lines in the past. Lucky for the Bengals, the Steelers line is still not healthy. RT Marcus Gilbert is expected to miss Sunday’s game, and C Maurkice Pouncey is questionable. The Bengals run defense, though ranked 21^st, has looked much better the past three weeks, holding MJD, Reggie Bush, and Trent Richardson to a very impressive combined total of 123 yards on 46 carries (2.7ypc) and 1 TD. MJD, Bush, Richardson > Steelers RBs, therefore, I think the Bengals will be able to stop the Steelers run game and make the Steelers one dimensional.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Steelers Throw the Ball

I believe the Bengals can make the Steelers one dimensional. I also believe the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger could care less about that. In fact, they will probably thank them. The 17^th pass ranking the Bengals defense owns is grossly deceiving. The Bengals secondary (and LBs) are high on first round picks and names, low on productivity. This secondary has 1 INT in 6 games. This secondary has been lit up by Flacco, RGIII, Weeden (2x), and Tannehill. This secondary has faced 4 rookies and Blaine Gabbert, yet still has only 1 INT. Ben Roethlisber > Flacco, RGIII, Weeden, Tannehill, and Gabbert. The Steelers receivers (Brown, Wallace, Miller) > all the receivers the Bengals have faced so far…combined. Maybe the Bengals secondary will surprise me. Maybe the Bengals D-Line can get enough pressure on Ben to help the secondary. I’m not counting on either. Ben vs this secondary makes me cringe.

Advantage: Steelers

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball

Ok, stop laughing. The Bengals will try running the ball. That will likely make the Steelers laugh. The Steelers are currently ranked 20^th in the rush, that is likely to improve. The Bengals have struggled mightily in the run game of late. In the offseason, the Bengals picked up BJGE to help improve their run game and short yardage situations. That hasn’t happened so far. At 3.4 ypc, 2 TDs, and 3 more fumbles in 2 games than he had in his previous 580 touches, BJGE has been slightly disappointing. In defense of BJGE, it is not all his fault. He has been running behind a young, patch work OL, that has BJGE dodging defenders before getting to the line of scrimmage. Look for the Bengals to use the run game just enough to try and keep the Steelers defense honest.

Advantage: Steelers

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

Despite the Steelers defense being ranked 4^th, look for the Bengals to put the ball in the air. This ranking is a bit deceiving, as the Steelers, like the Bengals, have faced 1 competent passer – Manning - and Manning, with new receivers and a new offense, went for 253 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs in his first game in 15 months. While Dalton has made some mistakes in the past two weeks, he has also put up impressive numbers and Dalton > Sanchez, Palmer, Vick, and Hasselbeck combined. The key will be Dalton protecting the ball. With Dalton this year, that has been easier said than done. Dalton has been picked off in every game this year, including 3 last week and 3 pick 6’s on the season. Dalton will benefit from Polumalu’s absence, and I look for Gruden to get back to his creative offense, which disappeared during this 2 game losing streak. Despite Dalton’s INT issues, he has AJ Green, therefore, I like Dalton in this matchup.

Advantage: Bengals

Coaching

Not much of contest here. Tomlin is 62-31, 8-2 vs Lewis, 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 Super Bowl ring. Lewis is 72-77-1, 5-14 against Pittsburgh, and 0-3 in the postseason. This could be a close game, and if so, it may come down to crucial game strategy and game/clock management. When it comes to clock management, game strategy, and overall winning, Tomlin > Lewis.

Advantage: Steelers

 

Conclusion

This is a big game. Not for the team that wins, but for the team that loses. The team that loses is out of the division race and is in a tough scramble for the wild card. Both teams come into this game with their backs against the wall and needing the win. The Steelers are 2-4, beat up, and looking very beatable. The Bengals are coming off back to back losses to bad teams. Unfortunately, these are the types of games the Steelers win and the Bengals lose. The Steelers usually play their best in must win games – Tomlin and this team have a history of it. The Bengals and Marvin Lewis, on the other hand, have a history of failing (often miserably) in big must win games, i.e. ’12 MNF opener, ’11, ’09, ’05 playoffs, last game of ’06, etc. Tomlin and his teams have shown the ability to win big games. Lewis and his teams have yet to show they can win the must win games. Until they do, I will pick the Steelers.

Prediction

This pains me, but I believe the Steelers win in a shootout. I really hope I am wrong.

Steelers 34, Bengals 31