Epic Collapse

In sports, there is a winner and there is a loser. Sometimes the "better team" wins (2012 Kentucky Wildcats), sometimes they don’t (1990 A’s). Sometimes a team hits a hot streak that cannot be explained (2011 - St. Louis Cardinals, UConn Huskies). When that happens, you tip your cap. 

Make no mistake, the 2012 San Francisco Giants are not better than the 2012 Cincinnati Reds, and the 2012 San Francisco Giants did not hit an unexplainable hot streak. That is what makes this 2012 NLDS loss to the Giants so infuriating. There is no way around it. This 2012 Cincinnati Reds team choked. Historical choke. No NL team in Major League Baseball history had ever lost a best of 5 series when being up 2-0. Worse yet, the Reds were up 2-0 coming home for 3 straight games! The Reds gave up 1 H in the first 9 innings of those 3 games….yet, the Reds lost all 3. That, is a chokejob. That, is a collapse of epic proportions. And that, my friends, is the end of what was a great season for Reds fans.

 

This Reds team won 97 games (99 if you count the playoffs). This Reds team was one of, if not the most, fun, enjoyable, and likable Reds teams that I can remember rooting for. This Reds team had the ability to do some damage in the Post Season. And yet, this Reds season, was a failure. Sure, there are things to be proud of - 97 wins, Homer Bailey’s progress, Todd Frazier’s emergence, Ryan Ludwick’s season, winning 22 of 25 when Votto went down – all of those things were great. But, let’s not kid ourselves, years down the road, when we talk to our friends, our kids, our colleagues, the only thing we will talk about, the only thing we will remember about the 2012 Reds, will be the historical collapse in the playoffs. Do you ever sit around with your buddies and talk about how good the 1988 Bengals were? Of course you don’t. But you do talk about Krumrie breaking his leg and Billups dropping (what would have been) a game winning interception in Super Bowl XXIII. Do you ever talk about how good the 2000 Bearcats basketball team was? They were the odds on favorite to win the 2000 NCAA tournament before the conference tournaments started. Then Kenyon Martin broke his leg/ankle in the conference tournament game against St. Louis. I bet you talk about that. Do you talk about how good the 2005 Bengals were? Of course you don’t. But I bet you talk about Kimo Von Oelhoffen (or maybe you only know him as F@#%ing Kimo Von Oelhoffen) and how he rolled up on Carson Palmer’s knee. Ever hear anyone talk about how bad the 2011 UConn Men’s Basketball team was? And how they barely got into the NCAA tournament? I bet you don’t. I bet you hear people talk about how they won the 2011 NCAA Championship. Good, bad, or indifferent, teams are talked about and remembered for what they do (or don't do) in the post season, not what they do in the regular season. A great regular season earns you the right to play for a memorable season. To play for a historic season. When you win 97 games and go up 2-0 in a best of 5 series, bigger things are expected of you. Post season advancement is no longer wished for, it is expected. That expectation is what you earned as a team. And that, is what the 2012 Cincinnati Reds earned with their 97 wins and 2-0 NLDS lead coming home for 3. And that, is why this team will be remembered as having failed. They earned the expectation we gave them, and then they failed to meet it.

For weeks, maybe months, we will be debating who deserves the blame for this collapse, but lets’ first take a look at the bright spots of this series (there were a few):

The Good

Brandon Phillips (Hitting and Defense)

BP had an incredible series at the plate and in the field. Phillips hit .375 with 7 RBIs, 1 HR, and countless defensive gems. If it weren’t for a glaring play (which we will discuss later), I believe he would be your series MVP.

 

Bronson Arroyo

Frisbee was phenomenal in Game 2, going 7 innings and giving up just 1 ER. Would have been nice to see what would have happened had the Reds put Latos on the mound in Game 4 and Arroyo in Game 5 (if needed). Arroyo can go on 3 days rest, but especially after throwing only 91 pitches.

 

Homer Bailey

As much as I have beat on him over the years (and I have done plenty of it), Bailey was great at the end of the year and finally started living up to his potential. Despite his recent run, I was concerned having him in the rotation in the playoffs, but, he proved me wrong and deserved a better outcome for his Game 3 performance (7 IP 1H 1R). Hopefully he has turned the corner this year and begins to live up to his potential on a consistent basis.

Ryan Ludwick

Where would the Reds have been without him this year? After a slow start to the year, Ludwick took off right when they needed him (when Votto got injured) and filled the power role in the playoffs. If you would have told me Ludwick would hit .333 in the series with 3 HRs and 4 RBIs, I would have bet the Reds would win. Unfortunately, the guys around him couldn’t match his success.

Sean Marshall

4.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R. Not much I can add to that.

Sam LeCure

One of the most underrated relief pitchers in the majors (even on this team). 4.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 4 K, 1 W. He was the guy that filled the most important role in Game 1, coming in and bridging the gap to Latos.

Game 1 Mat Latos

What Latos did in Game 1, coming in after 3 days rest in a chaotic situation, and giving this team 4 important innings and shutting the Giants down, was legendary and endeared himself in Reds fans hearts. Unfortunately, his Game 5 meltdown may have tarnished some of that sentiment.

The Frustrating

 

Jay Bruce

He was vintage Bruce. Great defense and wildly inconsistent at the plate. He was great in SF, 3-9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 0 K. Then he came back to GABP and goes 2-10. Most frustrating had to be in Games 6 and 7, when this team desperately needed him most, Bruce goes 1-7, 0 RBI and his only 2 Ks of the series.

 

Mike Leake

He was put in a tough spot, but to be left off the roster, and then get a chance to start in Game 4 and be a hero, Leake laid an egg. After a demoralizing Game 3 loss, the Reds needed a fast start in Game 4, instead, Leake gave up a HR on the second pitch of the game, and followed it up with a 2 run shot in the second, effectively  deflating the team and the crowd.

Drew Stubbs

Did we expect anything from him? No. But that does not make him any less frustrating. His .211 average essentially was another pitcher in the lineup. But hey, he was fast.

The Bad

There was plenty bad and plenty of blame to go around for this debacle. I will put them in the order of who I blame the most.

1) Dusty Baker – I am not one of the Dusty bashers that blame him for every loss and give him zero credit for wins. I will give him his due when he deserves it (as I did for Game 1 the way he handled the Cueto situation) and give him the blame when he deserves it (if you follow me on twitter @12ozProSpective you are aware of this). Say what you want about this series, but I do not believe the Reds were outplayed, they were out coached. I will lay out the situations below, but take a look at these stats from the series:

	SF	CIN
Runs	18	22
Hits	32	47
BA	.194	.261
HR	5	5
Starter's ERA	5.16	4.30

Yet, the Giants won. What these stats don’t show is the reason the Giants won: 1) The timeliness of the hits (in 3 home games the Reds were 3-24 RISP and 28 LOB), and 2) Coaching. Look, Dusty Baker is a good coach. You don’t get to 1,581 wins if you aren’t a good coach (1,432 losses and a .525 W%). His players love him and never have anything bad to say about him (though some may argue they love him because they can suck and yet continue to play…but that’s for another day). But, ultimately, you get measured on your post season successes or failures. Dusty Baker has not had much post season success. Only one manager (Gene Mauch) has more wins than Dusty without a World Series ring (1,902). But, Mauch had an overall losing record (.483) and only 2 playoff appearances. I believe Dusty is a good regular season coach, where his calm, steady, ‘stick with ‘em’ demeanor is beneficial over a 162 game marathon. I believe Dusty is a terrible playoff manager, where that ‘stick with ‘em’ attitude gets you burned in a short series against good teams. I thought Dusty did a great job in the 2 games in SF, however, when they came home, they couldn’t close the series, something Dusty led teams have struggled with in the past (see 2002 World Series and 2003 NLCS – up 3-2 and 3-1 respectively, lost both 4-3). I believe the biggest reason the Reds lost, was Dusty being out coached:

a)     Exhibit A – Game 3

Some will rip Dusty for pulling Bailey after pitching lights out for 7 innings and only throwing 88 pitches. I think that is unfair. The Reds have the best bullpen in baseball. You get 7 IP out of your starter and hand it to the bullpen. Had he not pulled Bailey, and they lost, we would have crucified him for not handing it to the bullpen. So, I am fine with that. What I am not fine with is his 10^th inning decision to pitch to Joaquin Arias with a base open and the Giants closer on deck. There were runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 2 outs. Romo, the Giants closer, owning 4 plate appearances in 2012 was due up next. If you walk Arias, Bochy has to either: 1) take out his closer or 2) use his last bench player. If Bochy elects to take out Romo (1.76 ERA) and the Giants score, you have a better chance of scoring off someone other than Romo. If he leaves him in, the Giants likely don’t score. If, he pinch hits for Romo and they score, again, you hit off someone not as good as Romo. If he takes him out and the Giants don’t score, now Bochy is stuck in extra innings, with no one to pinch hit, no closer, and a severely hobbled right fielder (Pence). I like those chances. Instead, Dusty elects to pitch to a .273 hitter with good speed. Rolen bobbles the ball, run scores, Reds go quietly against Romo. Should Rolen have made the play? Sure. But, that doesn’t excuse the Brain Cramp by Dusty. Advantage: Bochy

b)    Exhibit B – Game 4

While Dusty may not have been the only one making the decision to pitch Leake, he is the Manager, therefore the decision ultimately falls at his feet. I understand the reasoning, you pitch Leake, maybe (big maybe) he squeaks one out and you win, if not, you get a fully rested Latos in Game 5; afterall, Leake threw a complete game against them last time giving up just 1 run. Didn’t work. Leake was shelled. I didn’t like this decision for 2 reasons: 1) Leake’s complete game was a bit deceiving. He scattered 9 hits and 1 walk in AT&T Park - those numbers would not have got him a complete game or 1 run in GABP. 2) A Game 5 win was no guarantee (as we saw). Go with Latos in Game 4 with the thought you may need to go to your bullpen early (like Bochy did), and if you lose Game 4, go with Frisbee in Game 5 with all hands on deck. I don’t believe the Reds lose that series if Latos goes Game 4 and Frisbee Game 5. Advantage: Bochy

Exhibit B.1 – Decision to Leave Leake In

It was clear from the outset, Mike Leake was not up to the task. He gave up a HR on the second pitch of the game, and then a 2 run shot in the 2^nd. At this point, Leake has to come out. You need to play this game as if there is no Game 5. Bochy did. He pulled Zito after 2.2 IP and 2 ER. He had guys warming up before the game started. Dusty, didn’t pull Leake. In fact, he left him in there long enough (4.1 innings) to give up 5 runs! Dusty managed Game 4 as if a victory in Game 5 was a guarantee. It was as if he saw Game 4 as a throw away game. Huge mistake in the handling of the pitching in Game 4. Advantage: Bochy

Exhibit B.2 – Pinch Hitting Cairo?

Down 5-2 in the Bottom of the 6^th, Stubbs on 2^nd with 0 outs, and Dusty brings out Cairo (.187) as the first guy off the bench? Really? On the mound was a righty (Lincecum). On the bench is Xavier Paul, a lefty, hitting .314, or Heisey (hitting .262 against righties), or even Rolen or Valdez for god’s sake! Did it end up mattering? Maybe not. Cairo got Stubbs to 3^rd and he scored on a sac fly. But it is the principle. Yes, the Reds don’t have a strong bench, but Cairo is the weakest link on the weak bench. In 150 ABs he had 13 RBI, 10 extra base hits, 1 HR, a .212 OBP and a .280 Slg%. He had better options to pinch hit with. Maybe they get an actual hit and you get more than 1 run in that inning. Advantage: Bochy

c)     Exhibit C – Latos Game 5

Did Dusty throw any pitches that lost the game? Nope. But, did Dusty go out to the mound when he could see Latos clearly flustered? Nope. Did Dusty get someone up in the bullpen when Latos gave up the 2^nd run and still looked to be coming unglued? Nope. With Game 5 on the line, down 2, 1 out, bases loaded, the potential NL MVP (Posey) coming to the plate to face an unnerved pitcher, did Dusty bother going to the best bullpen in the majors to try and keep the damage at a minimum? Nope. Did the Giants make him pay? Yep. That is the problem with Dusty in the playoffs. He manages as if it is a 162 game series. If that were the regular season, there is nothing wrong with what he did. When you are in Game 5 of a 5 game series, with your team faltering, you cannot afford to ‘stick with ‘em’ and worry about player feelings, you have to manage with urgency. Bochy did. He seemingly had guys warming up from the first pitch on in Games 3-5. He understood that. Dusty did not, and it burned him. You think the way Latos feels now, he wouldn’t trade that for getting pulled? Now Latos really feels bad. Dusty is responsible to 25 guys in that locker room, and his decision to leave Latos out there, let those guys (all 25 of them) down. Advantage: Bochy

Exhibit C.1 – Hit and Run with Hanigan

Don’t get me wrong, Hanigan has to swing at that pitch. So that part is on Hanigan, but, the Reds ran the hit and run the pitch before and Hanigan fouled it off. The Giants were ready for it. We barely ever saw Dusty do any hit and run in the regular season, and he picks a risky time in Game 5 with 0 outs, 2 men on and 1 run already in, still down 6-3 to try and pull it off? Hanigan had grounded in to1 double play on the day, so if Dusty was worried about that, fine, have him bunt. If he didn’t want to bunt Hanigan because he didn’t trust Stubbs to get a hit or sac fly after Hanigan? Then that goes to the point of why bother playing Stubbs. Dusty tried to get crafty here. It didn’t work. In fact, it blew up in his face. Fail. Advantage: Bochy

d)    Exhibit D – Motivation

I get it. These are professional players. They shouldn’t need a coach, or anyone for that matter, to get them motivated to play; especially not in a playoff series. But, this team was shaken after Game 3. To have your pitchers throw 9 innings with 1 hit and then lose, on a series of mistakes nonetheless, they were demoralized. You could see it in Game 4. Probably the same way the Giants were after Game 2, the difference being, the Giants had a day to get over it and a player (Pence) with the fire to pump them up. The Reds didn’t have a day off (although it looked like they took one anyways) and they don’t have a fiery guy like Pence to get the team going. Votto isn’t a vocal guy. Rolen isn’t a vocal guy. Phillips is not that type of vocal guy (he has swag, he doesn’t have leadership). Bruce, Arroyo, Cueto, Latos, etc aren’t vocal guys. If you have a vocal leader on your team (i.e Ray Lewis, Derek Jeter, Hunter Pence?, etc) the manager doesn’t need to be that voice. However, when you have a team of ‘lead by example’ guys, and they are down, the manager has to read that situation and be the vocal leader. Get the team back up. Pump them back up. Remind them that they won 97 games. That they haven’t lost 3 in a row at home this year. That they are better than the Giants, etc. A manager has to feel that out. You can’t do it every game in a 162 game season, but in a short series, you may have to. Dusty clearly didn’t read the psyche of this team and did not get them back on track until late in Game 5. Too late. Advantage: Bochy

e)     Exhibit E – Rolen Playing 4 of the 5 Games

He is a veteran 8-time Gold Glover with playoff experience, so Dusty loves him. But, as good as Rolen’s career has been, he looks to have come to the end of his road. Rolen knows it. Dusty knows it. But Dusty is loyal to his veterans to a fault. He had a more productive replacement in ROY candidate Todd Frazier. Frazier likely makes that play in Game 3. Frazier likely gives you better at bats than Rolen did most of the season (looked old and overmatched at times). And, Frazier gives you the energy and fire this team was desperately lacking in their 3 home games. Would this have made the difference? I don’t know, but, given the way Rolen played, I don’t think it would have hurt. Advantage: Bochy

 

2) Brandon Phillips – Was he the best day-to-day player for the Reds in this series. Absolutely. But, BP has had a penchant for bad base running blunders, many of which revolve around him thinking he is faster than he is. In Game 3, his decision to try and go from 1st to 3rd on a passed ball in the 1st inning cost the Reds at least 1 run (maybe more), and ultimately, cost the Reds that game. A game that caused the downfall of this team. I appreciate aggressive base running, but there is a difference between smart aggressive, and stupid aggressive. That was stupid aggressive. You have a pitcher (Bumgarner) who has been struggling of late, a team that is demoralized after losing 2 at their park, 0 outs, a full count on the current batter, and your 3,4,5 hitters coming up. There is an old rule BP needs to remember: you don’t make the 1st or 3rd out of an inning at 3rd base. I believe this play (while it seemed nominal at the time), cost the Reds this series. Hence, why I would not give BP the MVP for the series.

3) Joey Votto – Look, I understand Votto was not 100%, that was clear. And, I understand it seems a bit harsh to put this much blame on a guy that hit .389 in the series and had an OBP of .500. But, those numbers are misleading. What tells the story is 0 RBIs and 0 extra base hits. Votto is the franchise. Joey Votto is paid to drive in runs, and to drive in runs when it counts. This team will go where Joey Votto leads them, and in this series, he did 0 leading (vocal or by his play). I realize he is not a rah rah guy, but when you see your team sinking (and the Reds were sinking after Game 3), and you are Joey Votto, you have to step up and carry them, regardless of how many legs you do or don’t have. Votto did not. Votto had ample opportunities to make a difference, and he didn’t. I don’t know how many guys he left on base, but it had to have been a lot. It seemed like every time he came to the plate with runners on, he struck out. While he has been one of the most clutch hitters in the regular season, Votto, in 28 plate appearances in the playoffs, is now hitting .250 with 1 RBI. While I appreciate a good OBP, I need more from a $250 million franchise player than 0 RBI and 0 extra base hits in a 5 game playoff series. I need RBIs and I need a tenacity and fire that Votto did not show. Believe me, when Joey Votto walks, or gets a single with no one on, the other team feels like they have won.

 

4) Game 5 Mat Latos – Mat Latos, after his Game 1 performance and first 4 innings of Game 5, was well on his way to claiming legendary status in Reds fans hearts. His meltdown in inning 5 shattered that. As a younger player, Latos was known for maturity issues and letting umpire calls get under his skin. We hadn’t seen a whole lot of that this year. Unfortunately, we saw it Thursday, in Game 5, the most crucial game of the Reds 2012 season. Latos felt the umpire made a bad call, lost his focus, and never recovered. After that call, Latos gave up a single, a triple, ground out, reach on error, walk, single, grand slam.  6 runs later: game, set, series, match. To Latos’s credit, he admitted to letting the umpire get to him and he shouldered the blame. As we discussed above though, the coaching staff shoulders some of the blame as well for not coming out and calming him down or taking him out. He was clearly flustered (at least from what the announcers said – because, though you may not believe it, I have a job and am not able to watch 1pm weekday baseball games, thank you MLB). He never should have been left in to face Posey with the bases loaded. 

5) Ryan Hanigan – I think Ryan Hanigan is one of the best and most underrated catchers in the league. He does an amazing job calling games and handling the pitching staff and he lead the majors this year throwing out 48.5% of base stealers (not sure if that is proper English, but oh well, you get the point). But, in Game 3, his passed ball was critical as was his strike out looking in Game 5 with the hit and run on. Ryan Hanigan had 3 passed balls all year, yet, with no one out, 1^st and 2^nd, top of the 10^th in a 1-1 game, he lets a Jonathan Broxton pitch get away from him, allowing the runners to advance to 2^nd and 3^rd. 2 huge strikeouts later, Rolen makes the infamous error. Without that passed ball, that error loads the bases with either Sergio Romo (4 ABs in 2012) coming to the plate, or the Giants last bench player. Critical. Then, in Game 5, 1^st and 2^nd, 0 outs, full count, Dusty (I believe inexplicably) has a hit and run on. Hanigan took the pitch and Bruce was gunned at 3^rd for a strike ‘em out throw ‘em out double play. Threat over. Was the pitch a ball? Probably. But, when you have a hit and run on, you MUST swing if the pitch is close, even with a full count. Hanigan is a smart baseball player. He knows that. For him to make that mistake, is inexcusable. That pitch was close enough, swing.

6) Scott Rolen – I put Rolen last in the blame game. Was his error in Game 5 critical? Absolutely. Was it a play he should make? Yes. It was a tough play, but he is an 8-time Gold Glover, he needs to make that play. Was that the reason the Reds lost the game? No. It was one of many reasons, it just happened to be the last mistake and the most obvious, therefore it is the one we point to. Had Phillips not tried to go 1^st to 3^rd on the wild pitch in the 1^st, I don’t believe Rolen’s error matters. Had Hanigan not had the passed ball earlier in the inning, I don’t believe Rolen’s error matters. Had Dusty walked Arias to get to Romo or force Bochy to empty his bench, I don’t believe Rolen’s error matters. So, while I will not excuse Rolen for the error, and he still shoulders a good portion of the blame for Game 3, I am not willing to point to him as the sole reason for the loss. I will, however, complain about his strikeout to end the series, representing the winning run, on a pitch right down the middle.

A Game of Infamous Firsts

First NL team up 2-0 to lose a 5 game series

First 3 game home losing streak of the year for the Reds

First SF sweep in Cincinnati since 1999

First career grand slam allowed by Mat Latos

A Closing Word

When I look back on this 2012 Cincinnati Reds team, I will remember how much fun it was to watch and listen to this team. How resilient they were and how impressive it was to win 97 games and the feeling of invincibility when Chapman would enter in the 9th. For that, I am happy. Unfortunately, those memories will be a bit muted. Always being followed by the 'but' or 'what if' cloud. Unfortunately, what I will remember most about this 2012 Reds team, is the hollow feeling with which they left me and thousands of Reds fans after completing an epic 3 game playoff collapse ... all at home, and extending a painful streak of 17 years and counting since the great Queen City hosted a playoff game won by the hometown team. Unfortunately, this is a loss that won't go away anytime soon. It is the type of loss that will forever hang over every successful Reds season. This is the type of loss that can only be erased in October; no amount of regular season success can wash this down. This is the type of loss that taints fan bases and drives pessimism in an already pessimistic fan base. This is the type of loss, that you don't want to have follow you into the off season. And, this is a loss that occurred to a city, a franchise, and a team, that deserved better.