The Bengals are 3-1 and tied atop the AFC North, so, it may
seem odd when I say Week 5 is another must win game for the Bengals. It is not
a must win because 3-2 would be catastrophic. It is a must win because the
Bengals are at home playing an inferior Dolphins team starting a rookie QB. As
I have stated before, wins in the NFL are tough to come by, so you have to win
the games against inferior teams, especially home games. The Dolphins are
inferior to the Bengals.
When the Dolphins Run the Ball
The Dolphins run game has been a surprise this year. 5th
in the NFL in rushing and Reggie Bush has begun to show an ability to run
between the tackles. Bush, behind a strong Miami offensive line, is 6th
in the NFL with 369 yards (including 172 against Oak), despite playing only
half the game against the Jets. The issue will be, is Bush’s knee healthy. If
so, he could cause problems. While the Bengals rush defense was a surprise last
week, holding MJD to 38 yds on 13 carries (less than 3 ypc). Maybe they turned
the corner, but I am not willing to put faith in them just yet. After all, it
was the Jaguars, Gabbert and Bratkowsk…not much to focus on other than MJD. The
Dolphins, on the other hand, do have other weapons. I look for the Dolphins to
try and get the run game going, control the time of possession, and then look
for some big plays to their playmakers.
When the Dolphins Throw the Ball
Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline both had breakout games
last week. 431 yds for Tannehill in the air and 253 for Hartline. While I
believe those stats are a bit of an aberration, I do believe Hartline is a
dangerous WR and Tannehill has the ability to exploit a Bengals secondary that
is still a work in progress. Hall and Clements should be back, and though the
secondary looked better last week with Crocker at SS, like the run defense, I
am not willing to put much faith in them until I see it on a consistent basis.
Hartline has 455 or Tannehill’s 1,046 yds, so look for the Bengals to double
Hartline and force the Dolphins to beat them with someone else. Bess is a
respectable slot receiver and Fasano a decent TE, but my biggest concern (if
healthy) is Reggie Bush. If Bush gets matched up against a LB (especially
Maualuga), the Bengals could have a long day.
When the Bengals Run the Ball
It could be a long day for BJGE and Bernard Scott. The
Dolphins come to town with the top rush defense in the NFL. While this stat may
be a little deceiving (3 of their 4 opponents are not good at running the ball –
Oak, NYJ, AZ), they did do a good job shutting down Arian Foster (79 yds on 26
carries – 3.0 ypc) in Week 1. Look for the Bengals to get cute and use screens
and short passes in place of the run game at time.
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
This is what the Bengals need to exploit. The Bengals enter
this game 7th in passing offense and possess arguably the best WR in
the game and a potent surrounding crew. While the Dolphins defense was able to
keep Fitzgerald in check last week, AZ still got 324 yds and 3 TDs from the
passing game. Green, Binns, Hawkins and Gresham will by far be the most dynamic
receiving corp the Dolphins have faced so far…and they have not handled the
others very well. Look for the receivers to have a big day and look for the
Bengals to use the pass to create some running room for BJGE and company. One
strength the Dolphins have on defense is their DEs. The Dolphins had 8 sacks
last week, 4.5 by Cameron Wake. Andre Smith will have a big job keeping Wake
off of Dalton. Look for the Bengals to use Wake’s rush against him by running a
few screens to try and neutralize the pass rush.
Conclusion
Because of the Dolphins ability to run the ball, stop the
run, and rush the passer, this game could be closer than many think and could
turn on who can turn the other team over. BJGE will have to get past his recent
fumbling issues (3 in last 2 games) and the Bengals secondary will have to
force Tannehill into mistakes (he does have 6 INTS and 1 fumble to just 2 TDs).
Overall, I think the Bengals are the better team and their defensive line will
be able to put enough pressure on Tannehill to force him to make more mistakes
than Dalton. I see the Bengals taking this one in a close, but entertaining
matchup.
Prediction
Bengals 27, Dolphins 21
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