My Objectively Bi Polar Take on the Dusty Baker Re-Signing

Like it or not, Dusty Baker is coming back. Earlier this week, the Reds brass decided to bring Dusty back for two more years and see if he can finish what he started. While I believe it is was time to move on, I can’t fault the Reds for going this direction.

Full disclosure, I am not a big Dusty Baker fan - never was when he was in SF, never was when he was in Chicago (except for when the Cubs were sucking, then I was). I didn’t like when they hired him in the first place, but, they could have done much worse. I will give Dusty credit for what he has done with the Reds since taking over in 2007. With the exception of 2011, the Reds have improved each year under Dusty. This year, they won 97 games…that is pretty good. Despite that, Dusty took a lot of crap from fans and media. Always has. Some deserved, some not. The reason I would have moved on has nothing to do with Dusty’s regular season success. The reason I would have moved on is due to the lack of his postseason success.

First, let’s look at the Facts:

Good

• The Reds have improved each year (except 2010) under Dusty.
• Dusty is the first manager to take the Reds to multiple playoffs since Sparky Anderson
• Dusty has 1,581 wins
• Dusty ranks 19^th all-time on the wins list.

Bad

• Dusty has 0 rings.
• Only one manager has more wins than Dusty without a ring (Gene Mauch – 1902 wins).
• But, Mauch had a losing record (.483) and only 2 playoff appearances in 26 yrs – Dusty has 6 in 19 yrs.
• Of the top 20 managers (in terms of wins), Dusty and Mauch are the only ones without a ring.
• Only 2 managers have 6+ playoff appearances and 0 rings – Dusty Baker 6 playoff appearances in 19 years and Ron Gardenhire 6 appearances in 11 years.
• Last 4 postseason series:

o    2012 NLDS v SF– Up 2-0. Lost 3-2 (lose 3 in a row at home).

o    2010 NLDS v Phi – Swept 0-3 (including being no hit).

o    2003 NLCS v Fla – Up 3-1. Lost 4-3 (including game 6 and 7 at home).

o    2002 WS v LAA – Up 3-2. Lost 4-3

Dusty’s history with the Reds

The reason I would have moved on is because I believe Dusty has taken this team as far as he can take them. I have no doubt he can coach them to regular season success. His loyalty and calm, steady demeanor works well over the long grinding season. However, it doesn’t work well in the playoffs. In the playoffs, you don’t have the luxury of ‘staying with’ things. You have to coach with urgency. Look at the 2012 NLDS for example. Dusty’s calm demeanor helped in game 1 when Cueto went down. But, when the Reds came home, and lost game 3 in heartbreaking fashion, the team didn’t seem to have any urgency. It seemed as if they played game 4 as if a win in game 5 was guaranteed. Three times in that series, Dusty needed to coach with more urgency and three times he did not: 

1.     Latos should have pitched game 4, not Leake. 

2.     If Leake did pitch game 4, he needed a short leash. That is exactly what Bochy did with Zito (he basically had guys warming up on the first pitch). Once Leake gave up the 2^nd HR in the 2^nd inning to put the Giants up 3-1, Dusty needed to pull him. 

3.     Dusty needed to pull Latos. In the 5^th inning of game 5, Latos unraveled. It was clear to the announcers, fans and anyone watching/listening that the ump had gotten to Latos. The only one who didn’t seem to realize, was Dusty. Latos should have never faced Buster Posey with the bases loaded. If the Reds get out of that inning only giving up 3 runs instead of 6, they likely are playing right now in the NLCS. 

In 2010, the Phillies had a better team and home field advantage. While I don’t like losing 3-0, no sane person thought the Reds would win that series and no sane person can blame Baker for that series. But, in 2012, the Reds had the better team, home field advantage, and a 2-0 lead coming home for 3 straight – when you lose in that situation the manager takes a lot of the blame. Even up 2-0, you have to coach with urgency; the close out game is always the toughest to win. Down 2 games to none, Bochy coached with urgency, Dusty did not. Dusty went home, Bochy did not.

Past Postseason Collapses

In Dusty’s last 4 postseason series, he has overseen 3 collapses (2012 up 2-0, lost 3-2; 2003 up 3-1, lost 4-3; 2002 up 3-2, lost 4-3) and a sweep (2010). Is that all Dusty’s fault? Of course not. Dusty didn’t give up any HRs in 2002, he didn’t make any errors in 2003, he didn’t get no hit in 2010, and he didn’t fail to hit in the clutch in 2012. But, he was the manager of the teams that did. He is the manager that in all 4 situations, could not turn his team around when things started going downhill in a short series. And as the manager, a good portion of that failure has to stick to you.

But, Let’s Not Get Silly….

Dusty is a good coach. You don’t coach for 19 years, make 6 playoff appearances, and win 1,581 games if you are not a good coach. I ask all you Dusty bashers, who would you bring in if you didn’t bring Dusty back? Ron Oester? I admit, though I personally would not have brought him back, I don’t have an answer to that question. Sure, I would have liked Francona, but who says he would come here. There aren’t a lot of World Series caliber coaches just sitting out there waiting to be hired. While I think this roster could have lured a great coach, I don’t know that for sure. Let’s just say they could have done much worse than bringing back a coach with 1,581 wins whom the players like playing for. How quick Reds fans (myself included) forget what things used to be like (remember Bob Boone? Dave Miley? Jerry Narron?) .

So, like it or not, we have Dusty for 2 more years. Let’s just hope the Reds front office gets him a legit leadoff man and takes Stubbs off the roster for him, that way we can stop having our intelligence insulted by Dusty telling us the Stubbs is a legitimate major league ball player (let alone a leadoff man).