Reds 1st Round Playoff Roster

With the Reds now knowing their seeding, opponent, and schedule, their next big decision is who makes the 25 man playoff roster. Based on what Mark Sheldon said on 700wlw tonight, and what he has put on his blog (http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/), the Reds will travel to SF with 28 players. It looks like those players will be: Hanigan, Navarro, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce, Ludwick, Heisey, Valdez, Paul, Mesaraco, Cairo, Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Arredondo, Hoover, Leake, Simon and Ondrusek. Keep in mind, they can reset their roster after the first round. In 2010, the Reds kept 14 position players and 11 pitchers. I think they do the same this year. Here are my predictions:

Position Player - Locks - (13)

Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Frazier, Ludwick, Heisey, Stubbs, Bruce, Hanigan, Navarro, Paul, Valdez.

 

Pitcher – Locks (9)

Starters – Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey

Relievers – Arredondo, LeCure, Marshall, Broxton, Chapman

Last 3 in:

Hoover (RP) – The guy has been great this year. 31.2 IP, 17H, 7ER, 2HR, 13BB, 31K, 0.98 WHIP, 2.05 ERA. In the 11 games since returning from Louisville, Hoover’s stats are 12.2 IP, 1R, 6H, 5BB, 12K. Those stats are worthy of a spot on this roster and add to an impressive Reds bullpen.

Leake (RP/SP) – This is a tough one. I like Leake here, but would not be shocked if the Reds go with Simon or Ondrusek. I prefer Leake for his versatility. He can start should something happen to one of your starters. He can also be a long reliever with LeCure. He can also be a pinch hitter or pinch runner. He is a career .274 hitter (164 Abs), with 2HRs and good speed. He also has a 1.00 ERA against SF this year thanks to a complete game in AT&T Park. 

Mesoraco (C) – This would be my choice, though it seems to go against what most think. Mesoraco seems to be in the Reds doghouse since his suspension and has played little since. He was sent to Louisville and only has 3 ABs with the Reds in the whole month of September, so he is likely beyond rusty. BUT, he provides the Reds great flexibility. Other than Paul, Navarro is the second best option coming off the bench to hit. Navarro has been great since being called up (.290 BA, .306 OBP), not just offensively, but defensively as well. He is also a switch hitter. However, you rarely use your backup catcher in the fear of your starter needing to come out. Keeping Mesoraco frees up Dusty to use Navarro’s bat when it is needed. I think this is a darkhorse choice, but I think it would be the wise choice.

First 3 Out:

Simon (RP) – This just comes down to a numbers game. Simon has been great this year. 2.66 ERA, 52 Ks, 22 BBs, in 61.0 IP. If they keep 14 pitchers, I think Simon makes it, but I don’t see them keeping 14. Simon has been used mainly as a long relief guy. LeCure can fill that role, as can Leake if you keep him. Even though his ERA is lower than both Leake and LeCure, I just get the sense that Simon is the first man out.

Cairo (IF) – I would be surprised if Dusty leaves him off the roster, but he should. The only argument for Cairo is his postseason experience, but, he is batting .187 in 150 ABs this year, he is slow, and his defensive range and ability is limited. The guy is a true Pro’s Pro, but he isn’t producing. Leake’s bat and speed would make him a better pinch hit option off the bench than Cairo. I would leave him off, but I think Dusty keeps him on over Mesoraco. I hope I am wrong. 

Ondrusek (RP) – Never would have guessed this at the beginning of the year. He started the year with an incredible scoreless innings streak and was a top notch reliever for much of the year. His ERA is still good (3.46), but that number is deceiving. He looked shaky before being sent to Louisville, and he has been shaky since his return. Prior to tonight, in his last 3 appearances: 2.2 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 R. Early in the year, he would have been a lock, now though, he just doesn’t look comfortable on the mound.

On Friday we will take a look at the Reds/Giants series preview as well as the roster.