Week 9 Thursday Night Football: Bengals vs Dolphns - What to Look For

When Halloween falls on a Thursday night, I think it is only appropriate that the Bengals play on Thursday Night Football. In between stuffing your face full of “ever shrinking sized candy bars”, here is what to look for….

 

When the Dolphins Run the Ball:

Despite having 2 capable backs (Miller and Thomas), one of which averaging 4.5 ypc (Miller), the Dolphins are in the bottom 10 (23^rd) averaging just 89.1 ypg. The reason? The Dolphins run the ball just 34% of the time. Only 3 teams run the ball less. Whether it is because of scheme, philosophy, the line, or a lack of confidence in the young backs, the Dolphins clearly do not have a commitment to the run, thereby putting a lot of pressure on their 2^nd year QB. However, despite the fact that the Bengals are 8^th in the NFL stopping the run (97.3 ypg), look for the Dolphins to run the ball more than normal tonight. Why? To protect Tannehill from the Bengals pass rushers. Tannehill has been sacked 32 times in just 7 games, has been sacked 4+ times in 6 of the Dolphins 7 games, and is on pace to be sacked 73 times in 2013! To make matters worse, the Dolphins have issues with their line that go beyond the field (see below). Overall, the Dolphins can commit to the run all they want tonight, I don’t see it working.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Dolphins Throw the Ball:

Can the Dolphins OL give Tannehill time to take advantage of a vulnerable secondary and LB situation? That is the question. With Hall and Mays out for the year, and Maualuga and Boley out for at least this game, the Bengals are vulnerable in pass coverage, especially when matching up against a TE. The problem for the Dolphins is that they only have 1 TE available for this game (3^rd year man Charles Clay) and he will likely be needed to help the Dolphins terrible line protect Tannehill. Despite Tannhehill’s recent struggles, and they are bad (54.5% comp, 7 TDs, 7 INTs during their 4 game losing streak), if he is given time by his line, he can still take advantage of the Bengals in coverage. However, good thing for the Bengals, there may not be a team in the league less capable of exposing this weakness than the week 9 Dolphins squat. With a LT that has been with the team just 10 days, a backup RT (Clabo) starting (because of Martin going AWOL), and a center that was just subpoenaed for the Aaron Hernandez saga 4 days ago, to say the Dolphins line is in disarray may be an understatement (hence why I expect more run plays than their average). The Bengals DL is likely licking their chops at this matchup. If Clay has to stay in to block, that is a double win for the Bengals pass defense.

Advantage: Bengals

  

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

Though the Bengals have a stronger commitment to the run (43% run plays – 12^th), they aren’t necessarily having success. The Bengals rank just 19^th in rushing ypg and BJGE and Bernard are averaging just 3.1 and 3.9 ypc respectively. Fortunately for the Bengals run game, the Dolphins are equally unsuccessful at stopping the run (19^th – 109.9 ypg) and the Bengals use the run more as a way to simply keep the defense honest.  Huge success in the run game is not paramount for the Bengals, but some success is necessary to keep the defense honest and open up the field for the passing game.

Advantage: Bengals

  

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Dalton’s recent hot streak has seen the Bengals passing game climb to 7^th overall (269.9 ypg) and Dalton now is 4^th in the league in yards and TDs. With a Miami defense ranked just 20^th against the pass and no secondary players that can matchup 1-on-1 with Green (or maybe even Jones), Dalton will get plenty of favorable matchups. Jones showed teams last week what can happen if they focus on just Green. Look for plenty of opportunities for the Bengals TEs, RBs and Hawkins (hot off the IR). As long as the Bengals can keep the Dolphins off of Dalton, and all indications are they can (8^th in the NFL allowing a sack on only 5.42% of drop backs), he should be able to continue his hot streak.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaching:

Call the Press! I am taking Lewis again. Philbin seems like a good guy, but I have never been impressed with him as a HC and was surprised he was the Dolphins choice. Lewis, on the other hand, is on some sort of a role this year. It seems as though he has finally figured out this whole challenge flag thing and started to play call more aggressively.

  

Key to the Game:

The key to the game is clearly going to be the ability of the Dolphins OL to keep the Bengals DL off of Tannehill. If Tannehill gets time, the Bengals are vulnerable in coverage. If Tannehill cannot get time, it will be a long night for the Dolphins. After being outscored 24-0 by a far inferior Patriots offense and surrendering 6 sacks (with Martin) to a far inferior Patriots DL, I don’t see that happening.

 

Prediction:

Given the recent struggles of the Dolphins and plethora of on and off field issues with their already poor OL, I just don’t see how this one stays close.

Bengals 34, Dolphins 13

Week 9: Bengals vs Dolphins Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarter Back:

Many think Ryan Tannehill is the Dolphins QB of the future. I ask, “what makes you so sure?” If Bengals fans rip Dalton, imagine what they would do to Tannehill? For all the hoopla surrounding his rookie year, his numbers weren’t very good:

TD's		Rating		INTs		Comp %		Yards		YPA
TD	Rank	Rat	Rank	INTs	Rank	Comp %	Rank	Yards	Rank	YPA	Rank
12	T-27th                    Less than Ponder, Weeden, Sanchez	76.1	27th                           Lower than Gabbert, Vick, Ponder, Freeman	13	T-15th     Most	58.3%	T-23rd           (Gabbert)	3,294	20th	6.81	22nd

 

While his TDs are improving, his numbers aren’t much better this year:

TD's		Rating		INTs		Comp %		Yards		YPA
TD	Rank	Rat	Rank	INTs	Rank	Comp %	Rank	Yards	Rank	YPA	Rank
11	13th	79.5	19th	9	T-4th      Most	59.4%	22nd	1,769	17th	6.78	23rd

 

While some of his issues may be the imbalance in the play-calling (66% pass plays) and his league leading 32 sacks, some of this is on Tannehill. Dalton, on the other hand, comes in red hot as only the 9^th QB in history to have 3 straight games with 3+ TDs and 300+ yards. Despite all the criticism, Dalton is now 9^th in Cmp %, 4^th in yards, T-4^th in TDs and 6^th in rating. Dalton has 11 TDs in his last 3 games. Tannehill has 11 TDs all season.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Running Backs:

Lamar Miller is having a very disappointing year (343 yards, 2 TDs) averaging just 49.5 ypg, but it is not for a lack of production. Miller has been very productive (4.5 ypc). It is a lack of use. Only 3 teams are running the ball less than the Dolphins (34%) and as a result, Miller has just 77 carries in 7 games. Against a potent offense like the Bengals (9^th), look for the Dolphins to try and balance their attack a little more. Though the Bengals have a more balanced attack (43% run plays – 12^th), BJGE and Bernard’s production has been disappointing as well, averaging just 3.2 and 3.9 ypc respectively. However, the Bengals have gotten more TDs out of their top 2 backs (7-5), they have a stronger commitment to the run, and Giovanni Bernard offers the Bengals an added dimension in the passing game (26 catches, 242 yards, 2 TDs). The Dolphins backs, on the other hand, are non-existent in the passing game (17 catches, 94 yards, 1 TD). Because of the lack of commitment to the running game and the lack of contribution in the passing game, the Bengals get the advantage here.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Wide Receivers:

Week 9
	Bengals	Dolphins
QB	ü
OL	ü
RB	ü
WR	ü
TE	ü
DL	ü
LB		ü
CB	ü
S	ü
K	ü
SPT	ü
Coach	ü
Overall	ü

AJ Green has 734 yards and 5 TDs. The Dolphins top 2 WRs (Hartline and Wallace) have 834 yards and 3 TDs combined. Now with the season ending injury to Brandon Gibson (3 TDs), Green may be better than all 3 of the Dolphins WRs combined. Now with the emergence of Jones and Sanu (and possibly the return of Hawkins), the Bengals are heads and heels above the Dolphins WRs. The Dolphins don’t have a “true #1” WR - Brian Hartline is a quality WR but not a true #1, and Wallace is paid like a #1, but does not play/produce like one. Part of Tannehill’s minimal progress in his second year may be the result of his new and less QB friendly supporting crew. Wallace may have a big price tag and lots of speed, but he is a poor route runner, has questionable hands, and a poor attitude. In 2012, Tannehill had Hartline, a sure handed and good route running WR (Bess) and an explosive check down option (Bush). Tannehill’s shiny new toy has just 2 more catches (30), 137 more yards (398) and 1 more TD (1) than the bargin toy he replaced (Bess). Now with the loss of Gibson (ACL), Tannehill will have little NFL experience in the passing game outside of Hartline and Wallace.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Tight Ends:

Charles Clay is having a solid year (29 catches, 341 yards, 3 TDs) and could cause matchup problems for a Bengals team that has been depleted at the LB and Safety position due to injuries. However, the Dolphins backup TE (Sims) has just 2 catches for 5 yards (though he does have 1 TD). The Bengals on the other hand, feature 2 big TEs that can catch the ball (Eifert and Gresham) and have combined for 54 receptions, 581 yards and 2 TDs. The Bengals TEs are having an outstanding year and are often on the field at the same time.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Offensive Line:

The Dolphins have given up a league high 32 sacks; Tannehill has been sacked on 10.92% of his drop backs and has been sacked 4+ times in 6 of their 7 games; and their LT (McKinnie) joined the team about 1 week ago. If their play wasn’t bad enough, now they have off the field issues as well. Just after their devastating loss in Foxboro (their 4^th in a row), their center (Pouncey) was served a subpoena for the Aaron Hernandez trial and may be facing gun-trafficking charges (speculation). If that was not distraction enough, word comes down today that their starting RT (Martin) blew up and went AWOL after the OL played a prank on him. As a result, the Dolphins will be starting a new LT, a backup RT and a center who has to have other things on his mind. Sounds like a line (and team) that is in disarray. The Bengals are 9^th in sacks allowed (16), 8^th in sacks per drop back (5.42%), they have zero AWOL linemen throwing childish tantrums, and no lineman tied to the Aaron Hernandez debacle. I believe that gives the Bengals OL the on and off field advantage.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Defensive Line:

After finishing 7^th in the NFL in 2012 with 42 sacks, the Dolphins have more sacks (20) than just 11 other teams (T-18^th). However, the issue with getting to the QB is not on the DL. The DL is actually getting to the QB (16 of the team’s 20 sacks) and the Bengals OL will have their arms full with 3 lineman with 3+ sacks (Ordick, Starks, Vernon). Missing from that list is Cameron Wake. After a 15 sack campaign in 2012, Wake has just 2.5 sacks in 2013 and is on pace for a disappointing 7 sacks. Perhaps even more disappointing than Wake, would have to be the Dolphins 1^st round pick (3^rd overall) Dion Jordan, who in 7 games has just 1 sack and 8 tackles. The Bengals DL, features one of the deepest rotations and brings a wave of lineman that have combined for 17.5 sacks – led by Atkins 5. Pouncey will have his hands full with Atkins as will Clabo and McKinnie with Dunlap and MJ respectively. Along with their ability to rush the passer, the Bengals also feature a DL ranked 8^th in rushing yards against – compared to the Dolphins 19^th ranked rush defense.  

Advantage: Bengals

 

Line Backers:

If not for injuries to Maualuga and Taylor Mays (who was playing some cover LB), the Bengals would have the advantage here as well. After spending $61M on free agent LBs Ellerbe and Wheeler, the Dolphins have gotten very little for their money spent – a total of 0.5 sacks, 0 INTs and 0 FF. However, given the injuries at the LB position for the Bengals, I have to give the Dolphins the advantage.

Advantage: Dolphins

 

Corner Backs:

Quick, name the Dolphins CBs! If you said Brent Grimes and Dimitri Patterson, you are correct. If you said “I don’t know,” you are also correct. The Bengals will have a clear size advantage on Thursday with both CBs standing just 5’10”. Grimes has 1 INT and Patterson 3 – but 2 of those came week one against Brandon Weeden , so those may not technically count. As a whole, the Dolphins (20^th in passing) pale in comparison to the Bengals pass defense (11th), even without Hall. Terrence Newman is having a solid year, Adam Jones is coming off one of his best games, and Kirkpatrick played well in his most action since being drafted. I believe the Bengals CBs can hold their own against the Dolphins WRs, I can’t say that about the Dolphins CBs.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Safeties:

While the Dolphins safeties (Jones and Clemens) have more tackles (84-51), sacks (0.5) and interceptions (1), you don’t want your safeties making as many tackles as the Dolphin safeties are. The safety is the last line of defense, and therefore, I give the Dolphins safeties a lot of blame for the team’s 20^th ranked pass defense and conversely, I give the Bengals safeties a lot of credit for the Bengals 11^th ranked pass defense. Not a big advantage for the Bengals, but an advantage nonetheless.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Kickers:

The Dolphins have a rookie kicker (Caleb Sturgis) who is just 11/15 (73.3%), including just 1 for his last 4 and 4 for his last 8. Nugent, though he has a couple misses himself (10/13 – 76.9%), also has 2 game winning kicks over the last 3 games. With his experience and game winning record, Nugent gets the advantage here.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Special Teams:

The Dolphins and Bengals rank 11^th and 7^th respectively in kickoff returns and 27^th and 21^st in punt returns. When it comes to defending the kicks, the Dolphins and Bengals rank 8^th and 21^st in kick coverage and 12^th and 20^th in punt coverage. However, I believe Huber makes a big difference, therefore I give a slight edge to the Bengals.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaches:

Call the Press! I am taking Lewis again. Philbin seems like a good guy, but I have never been impressed with him as a HC and was surprised he was the Dolphins choice. Lewis, on the other hand, is on some sort of a role this year. It seems as though he has finally figured out this whole challenge flag thing and started to play call more aggressively.  

Advantage: Bengals