When the Jets Run
the Ball:
The Jets have established a nice running attack (11th
124.3 ypg) with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell but will be running up against the
stout Bengals #8 run defense (97.9 ypg). Powell is the leading rusher (366
yards and 4.1 ypc), but only got 3 of the Jets 52 carries last week, meaning
the coaches still see Ivory as their top back. The wild card in the Jets
successful run game is Geno’s Smith ability to run. The Bengals will limit the
Jets RBs, but they need to make sure Smith stays in the pocket. I expect the
Bengals defense to keep the Jets running game in check.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Jets
Throw the Ball:
Geno Smith has been better than most thought, and much
better than I thought. But, lets’ not get carried away here – his completion
percentage is under 60% (58.3%), he has a rating of 74.3, a QBR of 35.8, more
INTs (11) than TDs (8), 6 fumbles and is on pace for 39 turnovers (25 INTS, 14
fumbles). Expect the Bengals to focus on
the Jets running game, contain Smith in the pocket, and force Smith to beat
them in the air. With Smith’s propensity to turn the ball over, combined with
the Jets underwhelming receiving options (Kerley, Hill, Cumberland), I expect
this to be a recipe for success.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
Running against the Jets is not going to be easy, but will
be necessary to keep the defense honest. The Jets possess the #2 run defense in
the league (giving up just 77.7 ypg) and the Bengals have a below average
running attack (18th – 102.7 ypg). Look for the Bengals to
substitute some screens and swing passes in place of the traditional run game.
The Bengals have struggled moving the ball on the ground against far less
opponents this year, and I expect the same today.
Advantage: Jets
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
The Jets have a top 10 defense against the pass as well (10th)
and are 3rd in the league with 24 sacks, so throwing against this
defense isn’t going to be much easier than running. However, despite their
lofty rankings, the Jets are tied for last with just 2 INTs and the Bengals
receivers are much more talented than the guys that will be covering them. Look
for the Bengals to utilize a lot of 2 TE sets to not only neutralize the Jets
pass rush, but also to create mismatches getting their TEs on a LB. Because of
the 2 TEs, I like the Bengals in this matchup.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching:
If you didn’t know any better, you would be starting to
think that I am a staunch Lewis supporter. That couldn’t be further from the
truth! However, despite the fact that Ryan has a better winning percentage
(.535 to .506) and a 4-2 playoff record to Lewis’s 0-4 (including a win over
Lewis at PBS), I am giving Lewis the nod because I believe the current Lewis is
a better coach than the current Ryan. Since 2010, the Jets are 18-21 with 0
playoff appearances and endless meltdowns. In that same time period, Lewis and
the Bengals are 24-15 and made the playoffs both years. Rex has seemingly lost
the team and his mind, and despite some early season overachieving, I believe
this Jets team is one game/one play/one situation from a season meltdown.
Advantage: Bengals
Prediction:
This is going to be a defensive game, and likely not a
pretty game. Overall, the Bengals are more talented, more experienced and
playing at home.
Bengals 24, Jets 13
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