What to Look For - Week 7: Bengals v Lions

This is a big game for both teams. 5-2 vs 4-3. Sure, it is just one game, but it feels miles different. With the Ravens in Pittsburgh and the Browns in Green Bay, the Bengals have a very good chance of gaining another game on each. For the Lions, they look to keep pace with the Bears and Packers who both have favorable matchups against the Redskins and Browns respectively. Here’s what to look for on Sunday when the Bengals visit the Lions….

 

When the Lions Run the Ball:

Reggie Bush has pretty good stats - averaging 4.8 ypc, is on pace for only his second 1,000 yard season of his career and has 637 all-purpose yards - and Joique Bell has filled in admirably in his absence. However, the Lions rushing game as a whole is only 21^st in the NFL and is averaging a meager 95.4 ypg and when you get into the stats, Bush’s stats are misleading. 364 (or 57%) of his 637 yards, and 2 of his 3 TDS, have come in just 2 of his 5 games (40%). Outside of those 2 games, Bush is averaging just 91 all-purpose ypg in the other 3 games- exactly half of the 182 he is averaging in the other 2 games. To make matters worse, they are playing a Bengals team that is 11^th in the NFL in run defense. Good run defenses usually shut down good rushing attacks. Good run defenses almost always shut down below average running attacks. I would expect Sunday to be no different.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Lions Throw the Ball:

If Nate Burleson was playing and Calvin Johnson were completely healthy, I would be giving the Lions the edge. However, Burleson is out with a broken wing and Johnson is clearly not 100% healthy with his knee – just 3 catches for 25 yards in Cleveland. With the Bengals secondary finally healthy, they should be able to effectively double up on a gimped Johnson and the other secondary players should be able to match-up well against Durham and Pettigrew. The biggest concern in the passing game may be how the Bengals elect to deal with Bush. Bush is the Lions #2 receiver and is very dangerous out of the backfield. Expect to see the Bengals in a lot of nickel packages (meaning few Harrison sightings) and try and get a DB on Bush. If Bush gets on a LB (or Taylor Mays), bad things could happen for the Bengals. Because the Lions are not healthy, I give the edge (slight) to the Bengals.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

The Bengals may only be ranked 16^th in the running game, but they are coming off back-to-back 160+ yard games (162-NE; 165-Buff). While neither of those defenses is stout against the run (26^th and 28^th), the Lions are worse (29^th). Suh and Fairley have the big names, but they like to get after the quarterback and are surprisingly bad when it comes to stopping the run. Look for the Bengals to take advantage of this and establish the run early and often. The Bengals can run on this Lions team, and I think they know it. Bold prediction: The Bengals will get their first 100 yard rusher on Sunday.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Detroit isn’t much better against the pass (21^st), and for a DL that likes to rush the QB and a team that only likes to bring 4 rushers, they aren’t very good at getting to the QB – 12 sacks (26^th). However, with only bringing 4 rushers, they drop 7 guys into coverage and they do have 10 picks. For the 3^rd week in a row, the Bengals will face a player tied for the NFL lead in interceptions, LB DeAndre Levy (4). Individually, the Bengals WRs and TEs should be able to exploit their match-ups, and if the Bengals can hurt the Lions early with the run game, they should have more openings in the passing game.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaching:

Rarely do I give Marvin the advantage, but with Schwartz having a 26-44 career record and a history with discipline problems (himself and players), Lewis gets the advantage. If the Lions miss the playoffs, Schwartz could find himself polishing his resume.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Key to the Game:

Turnovers. It sounds like a cop out, but as you can see, I give the Bengals the advantage in every aspect of the game. I believe this Bengals team has more talent, is better coached and is more disciplined than this Lions team. This Lions team reminds me of the talented but out of control ’05-’07 Bengals. If the Bengals win the turnover battle (or even keep it even), I believe they win this game.

 

Prediction:

Bengals 27, Lions 24