Quarter Back:
I don’t think Geno Smith will be a good NFL QB and I certainly
would not want him as my QB. However, I have to eat a little crow when it comes
to Geno Smith. So far, he has been better than most thought, and much better
than I thought. But, lets’ not get carried away here – his completion
percentage is under 60% (58.3%), he has a rating of 74.3, a QBR of 35.8, more
INTs (11) than TDs (8), 6 fumbles and is on pace for 39 turnovers (25 INTS, 14
fumbles). On the other sideline is Dalton with a 24-15 career record, 2 playoff
appearances and 709 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 INT in his last 2 games. Advantage,
Dalton.
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Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs:
While the Jets are 11th (124.3 ypg) and the
Bengals 18th (102.7 ypg), the teams are actually much closer when it
comes to their backs – the Jets stats are a little skewed by Smith running. The
Jets top 2 backs (Powell and Ivory) have accounted for 585 yards on 158 carries
(3.7 ypc), nearly a mirror image of the Bengals top 2 backs (BJGE and Bernard) -
583 yards on 166 carries (3.5 ypc). However, where the Bengals have the
advantage is: 1) TDs from their backs (7-1), and 2) the receiving game –
Bernard has 25 receptions for 233 yards and 1 TD, or 9 receptions, 98 yards,
and 2 TDs more than Powell and Ivory combined. Because of the receiving
capability, the Bengals backs get the edge.
Advantage: Bengals
Wide Receivers:
AJ Green alone is better than all of the Jets WRs combined. The
Jets top 2 WRs (Kerley and Hill) have combined for 43 receptions, 636 yards and
3 TDs. AJ Green alone has 43 receptions, 619 yards and 5 TDs. The Jets top 3
WRs (Kerley, Hill and Holmes) have combined for 53 receptions, 879 yards and
just 4 TDs – and Holmes is unlikely to play. The Bengals top 3 WRs (Green,
Jones, Sanu) are fairly healthy (Jones shoulder) have combined for 83
receptions, 1,096 yards and 8 TDs.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
Kellen Winslow was having a pretty good comeback year (17
receptions, 169 yards and 2 TDs)…until he got busted for PE drugs. Note to
Winslow, cheating is not very “SOLDIER” like. In his absence, Jeff Cumberland
has stepped in and performed well (14 receptions, 239 yards, 17.1 ypc and 2
TDs). Cumberland is the Jets only TE threat - the other TE on the Jets roster
(Reuland) has 1 catch for 7 yards. The Bengals on the other hand, feature 2 big
TEs that can catch the ball (Eifert and Gresham) and have combined for 50
receptions, 544 yards, and 1 TD. Outside of the lack of TDs from the TE
position, the Bengals TEs are having an outstanding year.
Advantage: Bengals
Offensive Line:
The Jets O-Line has been successful run blocking (11th
– 124.3 ypg), however, their pass blocking leaves something to be desired.
Whether it is the rookies fault, or the line’s fault, or a little bit of both,
the facts are that the Jets have allowed 25 sacks in 7 games. Not a stat you
want to see if you are a Jets fan (or QB) and you are facing a defensive line
featuring Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson. The Bengals O-Line on
the other hand, has been average at run blocking (18th – 102.7) and
pretty good protecting Dalton (15 sacks – only 8 teams have yielded less).
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
While the Jets are 3rd in the league with 24
sacks, only 10.0 of those have come from the D-Line (6.5 from Wilkerson). The
Bengals, on the other hand, have statistically had a slow start to the year (18
sacks – T-16th), however, the disappointing sacks numbers are more
the result of teams mass protecting their QBs and throwing quick routes to get
the ball out of the QBs hands quick – thereby neutralizing the Bengals strong
pass rush. As a result, the Bengals are top 5 in the NFL in pass ypa, 13th
in ypg, 13th in opposing QB rating and 5th in opposing QB
completion %. And, of the 18 team sacks, 15.5 have come from the D-Line.
Advantage: Bengals
Line Backers:
While the Bengals will have the best LB on the field Sunday
and the NFL tackling leader (Burfict – 74), the Jets have the better line backing
unit. The Jets play a 3-4 and have gotten 8 sacks and 3 FF from their LB corps,
most notably Calvin Pace (4.0). The Bengals, on the other hand have gotten just
2.0 sacks and 1 INT out of their 3 starting LBs. Maualuga is playing well, but
the Jets 4 LBs are better as a whole than the Bengals 3.
Advantage: Jets
Corner Backs:
Despite their #4 overall ranked defense, the Jets are tied for
last with just 2 INTs on the year, none of which have been by a CB. The Bengals
CBs have accounted for 3 INTs this year alone, and while Hall is out, the
Bengals trio of 1st round CBs are still better than the Jets
receivers they will be tasked to cover. That cannot be said for the Jets CBs.
The Jets have yet to face the number of passing threats they will on Sunday.
Though the Falcons have threats, White was hobbled, Jones left mid-game, and
Gonzalez is old. While Cromartie does a good job, he also does a lot of
holding, and if he doesn’t get away with it on Sunday, the Bengals receivers
and TEs should have a good day.
Advantage: Bengals
Safeties:
The Jets safeties (Landry and Allen) have 2 sacks to the
Bengals 0, but that is more a product of Rex Ryan’s penchant for blitzing. With
the pressure the Bengals generate from their front 4, they do not blitz nearly
as much as the Jets. The Jets, however, also have 2 INTs from their safeties
compared to the Bengals 1. With that being said, Reggie Nelson is a top 15
safety and the other three are nowhere close. Therefore, I give the Bengals the
advantage again.
Advantage: Bengals
Kickers:
Nugent has a slight advantage in career FG percentage (80.8%
to 79.8%), however, Nick Folk is 16/16 in 2013 and Nugent is just 10/13
(including 1 miss from just 32 out). While has had back-to-back game winners in
the clutch, let us not forget, he missed a FG earlier in each of those games resulted
in a need for the game winning attempt.
Advantage: Jets
Special Teams:
The Jets have the advantage at kicker, but the Bengals have
the advantage at punter. Only 5 teams have more punts downed inside the 20 than
Kevin Huber (13) while the Jets are tied for 17th with just 11. More
telling is that Huber is having 39% of his punts downed inside the 20 compared
to Quigley’s 25%. As far as covering punts, the Jets are yielding 9.4 yards per
return while the Bengals just 7.6. When it comes to the kickoff return game,
the Bengals rank 13th with a 24.4 yard average return and the Jets
rank 27th with a 20.0 yard average return. When it comes to defending
the kickoff, it is a push – Jets give up 23.5 and the Bengals 23.3.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaches:
If you didn’t know any better, you would be starting to
think that I am a staunch Lewis supporter. That couldn’t be further from the
truth! However, despite the fact that Ryan has a better winning percentage
(.535 to .506) and a 4-2 playoff record to Lewis’s 0-4 (including a win over
Lewis at PBS), I am giving Lewis the nod because I believe the current Lewis is
a better coach than the current Ryan. Since 2010, the Jets are 18-21 with 0
playoff appearances and endless meltdowns. In that same time period, Lewis and
the Bengals are 24-15 and made the playoffs both years. Rex has seemingly lost
the team and his mind, and despite some early season overachieving, I believe
this Jets team is one game/one play/one situation from a season meltdown.
Advantage: Bengals
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