Quarterback:
Lewis may have been on the practice
squad at this time last week and may only have 1 NFL game to his name,
but in said game, he played for a terrible Browns team, on the road, against a
good Pittsburgh defense, and completed 68.8% of his passes for 204 yards, 1 TD,
1 INT and a respectable 83.3 rating. Marvin
Lewis has proven over the years that QBs like Thad Lewis can be dangerous if
not properly prepared for, and the Bengals shouldn’t need any reminders (see
loss to Hoyer). However, Andy Dalton is head and heels above Lewis. Dalton may
not be having a great year, but regardless of how you feel about Dalton, the
facts are that Dalton has as many TD passes since the start of 2012 (32) as
Lewis has pass attempts in his NFL career.
Advantage: Bengals
Offensive Line:
The Bills center Eric Wood (Elder and Louisville) is one of
the better centers in the league and leads one of the best run blocking
offensive lines in the league (3rd in rushing ypg – 152.6). Two
weeks ago, the Browns held the Bengals to just 63 rushing yards (3.2 ypc). Last
week, facing the same Browns defense in Cleveland, the Bills gouged the Browns
for 155 yards (5.0 ypc). However, pass blocking is not this line’s strength. In
5 games, the Bills have yielded the 6th most sacks in the league
(15) despite having only 170 passing attempts (19th) – or 8.11% of
their pass attempts (20th). The Bengals, however, have the opposite
issue. They are pass blocking well (T-8th with 11 sacks – 5.91% of
pass attempts), but not doing a great job run blocking (19th rushing
ypg – 99.4). The Bengals did find success last week against a good NE defense (162
yards – 42 ypc), and therefore, overall, I give the edge to the Bengals.
Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs:
As I have said before, the Bengals backfield has one of the
best 1-2 punches in the league. One team that has a better one? The Bills.
Spiller and Jackson, despite both being banged up, have combined for 600+ yards
rushing, 5 TDs, and nearly 4.4 ypc. While Bengals RBs have also found the end
zone 5 times, they have only combined for 418 yards and – thanks to BJGEs
putrid 2.9 ypc - are averaging just 3.6 ypc. Expect the Bengals to key on the
Bills run game, keep 8 in the box and make Lewis beat them. Because of
this, don’t expect the Bills RBs to have
a big game, but when it comes to skill and production, I still give the Bills
the advantage.
Advantage: Bills
Wide Receivers:
With AJ Green, it is rare when the Bengals do not have an
advantage at the WR position. This Sunday will be no different. The Bills top 2
WRs (Robert Woods and Steve Johnson) have combined for 36 catches, 519 yards
and 4 TDs. AJ Green alone has 31 catches for 361 yards and 3 TDs. If Johnson
doesn’t play Sunday (family funeral), that will leave Robert Woods as the #1
and 5’11” TJ Graham as the #2 (he of 6 catches for 66 yards). Not a good
combination to begin with, very bad if you are starting a practice squad QB
with 1 career game.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
Scott Chandler is a legitimate NFL TE (18 catches, 204 yds,
1 TD). Jermaine Gresham is a 2-time Pro Bowl TE and Tyler Eifert is a star in
the making. Gresham and Eifert are by far the best 2 TE set in the NFL this
year and while they have yet to account for a TD (pretty shocking), the have
combined for 39 receptions and 417 yards. No disrespect to Chandler, but on
this Bengals team, he would be the 3rd TE at best.
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
With 18 sacks, the Bills can get after the QB (T-3rd).
Mario Williams is a pass rushing stud and appears to be back to himself with
7.5 sacks in just 5 games, however, this defensive line is nothing special as a
unit. A team with tied for 3rd with 18 sacks should not be ranked 18th
against the pass, and against the run, they are worse 22nd. While
the Bengals will have their hands full with Williams, they should be able to
throw and run against this Bills front. The Bengals also have studs on their
line, but unlike the Bills, the Bengals line is better as a unit than they are
individually. While their sack numbers are down (13; T-14th), this
Bengals line has the best rotation in the NFL and excels as a unit. Even if MJ
is out again, the Bengals can get after the QB, are ranked 8th
against the pass, and they can stop the run (10th). Expect the
Bengals to load the box and dare Lewis to beat them.
Advantage: Bengals
Line Backers:
The Bills LB corps is led by an impressive rookie from
Oregon, Kiko Alonso, who is 10th in the NFL with 44 tackles and tied
for the league lead with 4 INTs. Unfortunately for the Bills, their other two
LBs (Manny Lawson and Nigel Bradham) have combined for just 43 tackles - or 1
less than Alonso himself. Bengals fans are all too well aware of Lawson’s
ability to stay off the stat sheet and the Bills appear to have an even more
invisible LB in Bradham. The Bengals will need to account for Alsonso, but
Lawson and Bradham will likely account for themselves. The Bengals on the other
hand have been getting great LB play from 2nd year stud Vontaze
Burfict, surprisingly good play from Rey Maualuga, and though Harrison’s
numbers may be down, he is still dangerous and requires attention.
Advantage: Bengals
Cornerbacks:
The Bills have one of the better young CBs in Stephon
Gilmore and a serviceable CB in Leodis McKelvin, however, Gilmore has yet to
play in 2013 due to a wrist injury and Gilmore is questionable for Sunday as
well. Even if Gilmore does play, one would expect there to be rust and getting
stuck on Green, Gresham, Eifert or Sanu would definitely be an advantage for
the Bengals. The Bengals on the other hand look to be getting healthy at CB and
have one of the deepest CB groups in the league with Newman, Hall, Jones and
Kirkpatrick.
Advantage: Bengals
Safeties:
Iloka has played well in his first year as a starter and
Nelson is a Pro Bowl caliber safety, but, if Jairius Byrd plays, and all
indications are that he will, the Bills have the advantage at safety, both in
experience and playmaking ability. In 5 years, Byrd has 18 INTs and 10 forced
fumbles, including 5 INTs and 4 FFs in 2012.
Advantage: Bills
Kicker:
Carpenter has the better career stats by a slight margin and
the bigger leg by a large margin. However, he had enough issues in 2012 that he
was released by 3 teams in 1 month (Miami, Arizona, NYJ) before being signed by
the Bills. That gives me enough doubt to at least give Nugent a push with
Carpenter.
Advantage: Push
Coach:
In the last few weeks, Marvin has been very un-Marvin like
and therefore has gained some points in my book (GB challenge on the spot, 4th
and goal last week). And, while Doug Marrone has done better than I thought he
would, we are talking about a guy that had a 25-25 record (including an 11-17
league record) in one of the worst college football leagues in the country (the
former Big East). Therefore, I give Marvin the advantage.
Advantage: Bengals
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