Week 5: What to Look For - Patriots

Despite their 4-0 record, I think this is the most beatable a Brady/Belichick team has looked since their dynasty began in 2001. This is also the most talented team the Bengals have fielded since 2001 as well. The question is, can the Bengals find a way to stay out of their own way and keep the Patriots from doing what they do (finding a way to win)

 

What to look for….

 

When the Patriots Run the Ball:

With the Patriots ranked 11^th in rushing ypg and the Bengals 11^th in rushing yards allowed pg, this is a matchup of two relative strengths. However, the Patriots numbers are a little misleading. Shane Vareen (Out), contributed 101 yards in his only game on just 14 carries. The two RBs that will visit PBS on Sunday have not been nearly as effective:  Stevan Ridley is averaging just 3.7 ypc (47 for 174) and has 1 more fumble (1) than TDs (0). LeGarrette Blount (yes, he is still apparently in the league), is averaging 4.6 ypc (34 for 155), with 1 TD, however, Blount had a 47 yard TD run against the Falcons, meaning his other 33 carries have gone for just 108 yards (3.27 ypc) and 0 TDs. I don’t see this running attack posing much of a threat to the Bengals run defense.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Patriots Throw the Ball:

Tom Brady is arguably the best QB of this era, but he doesn’t have his normal plethora of weapons…and it is showing. With no Welker, no Hernandez, no Gronk and no Loyd, Brady is not having a “Brady” season. It is stunning that Brady is completing less than 60% of his passes (58.9%), has a rating of 87.4 and is on pace for just 28 TDs – not bad, but for a guy that once threw 50 in a season and has thrown 34+ his last 3 years, that would be a significant drop off. The issue is not Brady, but his young receivers. With the glass man Amendola injured (surprise, surprise), Edelman has been his safety outlet and filled the Welker role, and while Edelman is good, he is no Welker. Rookie Aaron Dobson is injured (Questionable) and Kenbrell Thompkins, though talented, is still young and not always on the same page with Brady. But don’t be fooled, this is still Tom Brady, and with the injury issues in the Bengals secondary, Brady could have a great game if given time – and getting to Brady is tough (only 7 sacks in 4 games). As it usually is, the ability of the Bengals DL to pressure the QB will be key. If the Bengals were healthy in the secondary and on the line, I may be tempted to give them the edge due to the young and injured Patriot receivers (and TEs). The Bengals are not healthy. Therefore Brady could have a field day.

Advantage: Patriots

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

Despite a nice one-two punch in BJGE and Bernard, the Bengals have struggled to run the ball. However, a lot of that has to do with the fact that Gruden has been getting way too pass heavy (148 passes to 86 rushes – or just 36.7%). With Dalton’s struggles throwing the ball, Marvin’s desire to be more balanced on offense, and the Patriots missing Vince Wilfork, look for the Bengals to run more this Sunday. The Patriots were ranked 14^th against the run with Wilfork. Without him the Bengals should find some running lanes.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

The Bengals have the talent at WR and TE to expose a weak secondary (ranked 17^th against pass) talent wise, but that assumes Dalton can be accurate and Gruden can outfox Belichick. I do not trust either of those to occur. Belichick has given fits to Peyton Manning and Dalton has been confused by the Cleveland Browns. I would expect there to be opportunities on Sunday, but I don’t trust Dalton or Gruden to capitalize on them.

Advantage: Patriots

 

Coaching:

It would be an insult to Belichick (and coaching in general) to even debate this issue. Belichick > Lewis.

Advantage: Patriots x 10

 

Key to the Game:

Andy Dalton vs Bill Belichick. The Bengals should be able to run the ball, they should be able to stop the Patriots running game, and Tom Brady is likely to get his. That leaves Dalton and the Bengals passing attack as the key. If Dalton can start fast and be accurate, I like the Bengals chances. If, however, Dalton starts slow (as he has 3 of the first 4 games) and fails to protect the ball, I don’t see how the Bengals can win.    

 

Prediction:

Over the years, Belichick has caused issues for QBs far more experienced and dangerous than Andy Dalton, with secondary’s far less talented than this 2013 bunch. I hope I am wrong, but I haven’t seen enough from Andy Dalton to make me think I am.

 

Patriots 27, Bengals 20