Week 6: Bengals versus Bills - What to Look For

I see this as a must win game for the Bengals…not because a 3-3 record would kill their season, but because wins are hard to come by in the NFL (especially road wins) and when you have the opportunity to play a practice squad QB, you have to take advantage and get that win. So, here’s what to look for on Sunday when the Bengals visit the Bills….

 

When the Bills Run the Ball:

With all due respect to Mario Williams and his 7.5 sacks, the strength of this Bills team is their two-headed running attack (Spiller and Jackson). Despite CJ Spiller having a very disappointing year (compared to expectations), the Bills are still ranked 3rd in rushing ypg and have two backs (Spiller and Jackson) who both have more rushing yards (16^th and 13^th respectively) than either Bengals RB. With the Bengals ranked 10^th in rushing yards allowed pg, this will be a matchup of strength versus strength. With Thad Lewis starting, I would expect the Bengals to try and shut down the Bills running game and force Lewis to beat them through the air. I would expect 8 guys in the box for most of the game and a lot of tight coverage on the outside to try and take away the quick hits for Lewis. When an offensive strength goes against a defensive strength, the defensive strength usually wins. I will stick with that theme.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bills Throw the Ball:

Even with EJ Manual and Stevie Johnson, this Bills passing attack is ranked just 28^th. The Bills will be without Manual for sure (knee) and possibly without Johnson (funeral). In Manual’s place will be a relatively small QB (6’2” 200lbs) fresh off the practice squad (Thad Lewis) with 32 passes in his NFL career and playing behind a line that has already surrendered 15 sacks. The Bengals pass defense is ranked 11^th and possess the best and deepest DL in the NFL. In 2 of the last 3 weeks, Zimmer’s defense has completely shut down 2 of the best QBs the NFL has to offer (Rodgers and Brady). However, while the Bengals defense has a huge advantage in this matchup in terms of talent and experience, they best not overlook Lewis and the Bills, because the QB between their dominance of Rodgers and Brady – the immortal Brian Hoyer - made them look like a very pedestrian defense. Hopefully the Bengals have learned their lesson of overlooking lesser named QBs and bring the same intensity against Lewis as they brought against Rodgers and Brady. The Browns got Hoyer comfortable with a lot of quick hits and bubble screens, and I would expect the Bills to look to do the same. Expect to see Zimmer put 8 guys in the box for most of the game and a play his corners tight on the line in an effort to not only shut down the run game, but to take away the quick hits for Lewis. I don’t see Zimmer and this defense messing up 2 times in 3 weeks against a less than NFL caliber QB.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

The Bengals are ranked 19^th in the running game, but last week they finally committed to, and had success with the run game (162 yards – 4.2 ypc). With Daltons struggles this year, establishing the run game is very important had helps Dalton by putting less pressure on him. The Bills run defense has played better the past two weeks against the Ravens and Browns (57.5 ypg), however, the Ravens and Browns running games are ranked 24^th and 26^th respectively. This is a Bills defense that surrendered 153 ypg to the Patriots, Panthers and Jets in weeks 1-3 (ranked 14^th, 7^th, 11^th). The good performances against poor rushing teams is not selling me on this Bills run defense suddenly being improved and therefore I expect the Bengals to establish the run, and to be successful in doing so. Look for the Bengals to try and take pressure off Dalton and neutralize Mario Williams by establishing a strong run game on Sunday.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

This is a classic average versus average matchup. The Bengals passing attack ranked 18^th and the Bills pass defense is ranked 18^th as well. The Bills will get back two of the better secondary players in the NFL (Stephon Gilmore and Jarius Byrd), however, neither have played all year and some rust would be expected.  Given the Bengals have AJ Green, Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham and they will be matched up against either a player playing for the first time this year (Gilmore or Byrd) or an average corner back (McKelvin) or safety (Williams), I give the Bengals a big edge in this matchup. The key will be keeping Mario Williams and his 7.5 sacks off of Dalton and I believe the Bengals will accomplish this by utilizing some screens to Giovanni Bernard. I look for Dalton to snap out of his funk and throw 3 TDs this week.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaching:

In the last few weeks, Marvin has been very un-Marvin like and therefore has gained some points in my book (GB challenge on the spot, 4^th and goal last week). And, while Doug Marrone has done better than I thought he would, we are talking about a guy that had a 25-25 record (including an 11-17 league record) in one of the worst college football leagues in the country (the former Big East). Therefore, I give Marvin the advantage.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Key to the Game:

Bengals ability to shut down/limit the Bills running game. If the Bills get their running game going and allow the Bills to establish and effective play action passing game, they could be in trouble. Without a dominant running attack, I don’t see Lewis doing any damage. I believe the Bills will have some success in the running game and short passing game, but not enough to overcome the Bengals.          

 

Prediction:

I see this as a must win game for the Bengals…not because a 3-3 record would kill their season, but because wins are hard to come by in the NFL (especially road wins) and when you have the opportunity to play a practice squad QB, you have to take advantage and get that win. I think the Bengals will.

Bengals 30, Bills 16