Bengals Sign Dunlap – 6 years $40 million

 

This is a great move. For those that want to bash Mike Brown for not signing MJ to a long term deal, stop. Mike Brown has done a lot wrong over his tenure. He has made a lot of bad decisions over his tenure. We can rip him for a lot over his tenure. Not on this one. Would I like MJ signed to a long term deal? Absolutely. Could they still sign him to a long term deal? Absolutely.  However, I am in the camp that believes the Bengals could only sign 1 of the 2. They couldn’t reach a deal with MJ long term, so they struck a deal with Dunlap (much like when Hall and Joseph were up at the same time). Dunlap is just as talented, if not more talented, he is younger, and because of some injuries and having 1 year left on his deal, he was more affordable. That is good business. That is how winning organizations operate. I know most of us are not used to how winning football organizations work, but if you want to be like the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, Ravens, etc, this is how it works. Build through the draft, sign the players you can, and realize that you will have to let some good (but expensive) players go.

 Play GM for a moment (most of us have the same qualifications as the Bengals’ GM anyways). Between this year and next, here are the Bengals FA’s: Andre Smith (signed this year), MJ (franchised), Dunlap (signed this year), Atkins (FA next year), Gresham (FA next year), Dalton (FA next year), Green (FA in 2 years). The 2013 cap is $123 million. Rank them in order of importance. Mine looks/looked like this:

1)      Geno Atkins
1a)  AJ Green
2)      MJ/Dunlap
3)      Andre Smith
4)      Dalton
5)      MJ/Dunlap
6)      Gresham

Atkins will get $10M+. Green will likely get close to $15M (based on contracts of Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald). A top DE is $10M+ (MJ’s franchise tag is $11M – he also turned down 5yrs $40M). Smith is getting $6M. Dalton will likely garner $6-10M depending on his play in 2013. And, like it or not, Gresham is a 2 time Pro Bowl TE, so to sign him will cost $4-$6M (the TE franchise tag number is $6M+ and his agent would have an argument that Gresham is worth that or more). It is simple math folks. With a salary cap of $123 million, you cannot sign them all – doing so would be $61-$67M (add in Whitworth’s $6.75M and you are looking at $68-$74M)! You cannot have more than half of your cap wrapped up in 7 players when you have to field a team of 53. You especially cannot wrap up nearly $20 million between 2 guys in one position (how has that worked for the Jets at DB?).

If you want to say MJ is going to be the better player of the two. I disagree with you, but I think it is a valid argument. If you want to say MJ has better character and is a better guy to have in your locker room – I will agree with you on that. But even if you like MJ better, what you cannot say is that signing Dunlap is not one hell of a backup plan. The writing has been on the wall that the Bengals were unlikely to sign both MJ and Dunlap to long term deals. That is why they have filled the DE position with solid (but less expensive) guys of all ages (Gilberry, Geathers, Harrison and drafting Margus Hunt). If I were a betting man, the drafting of Hunt was based on the thought that they wouldn’t sign both – it gives Hunt (who is a project, but a freak) one year to develop. Personally, I would have let them both MJ and Dunlap play out their deals this year and make a decision based on their performance – probably sign one and tag the other. But here is why I like Dunlap better:

1)      Dunlap is younger (24 vs 26)

2)      MJ has more sacks, Dunlap causes more disruption

-          Take a look at these numbers (percentages courtesy of 12oz – rest of the numbers courtesy of cincyjungle and PFF).

-          Johnson and his agent are pointing at sacks (and I don’t blame them). I look at the percentages though, and based on the percentages, Dunlap causes more havoc more often.

-          In fact, I believe the havoc Dunlap causes, also causes an inflation of MJ’s sack numbers.

 

	Games	Rushes	Total Pressures	Total Pressures / rush	Sacks	Sacks / rush	QB Hits	QB Hits / rush	QB Hurries	QB Hurries / rush
Carlos Dunlap	26	726	100	13.77%	10	1.38%	27	3.72%	63	8.68%
Geno Atkins	32	1,045	135	12.92%	25	2.39%	29	2.78%	81	7.75%
Michael Johnson	32	997	83	8.32%	20	2.01%	14	1.40%	49	4.91%

  

3)      I believe Dunlap’s numbers are legit and independent of anyone else.

4)      I believe MJ’s numbers (though good), are a product of the attention paid to Dunlap and Atkins.

a.       Dunlap was injured the 1^st 2 games in 2012. MJ had 1 sack in those 2 games. In the game Dunlap returned (Washington), MJ had 3 sacks. Watch that game and you will see that it is Dunlap’s pressure that gets MJ his sacks. Remember coming into 2012 MJ had 11.5 sacks in 3 seasons and then ballooned to 11.5. I am weary of paying big money to guys that have a big jump in stats like that in contract years (see Reinard Wilson and Robert Geathers ….yes, I just brought up Reinard)

5)      I like Dunlap’s size. At 6’7” 265ish, MJ seems pretty lean on the DL. Dunlap is 6’5” 280 and just as quick.

6)      I don’t believe Dunlap has reached his potential (mostly due to injury)

7)      I believe the season MJ had last year is the best season he will have as a pro

8)      Dunlap is more affordable – because of his injuries and not having a breakout year like MJ

Don’t get me wrong, I am not knocking MJ. I think he had a great year and I would love to keep them both. But, I think the signing of Dunlap is nothing but a great move and knocking the Bengals for the signing (or the not signing of MJ long term) is ignorant.