Where's Votto?

Earlier this year I had the audacity to brush up against Superman’s cape and was bombarded with texts, tweets, ridicule, FB comments, etc. about how I hate Votto. I stand by what I said, and in fact, I believe I am currently being proven correct (the success of this team mirrors Votto’s offensive dominance). My last article inspired Votto to go on a terror in the month of May, batting .388 and sparking the Reds to a 19-8 May record (11 over .500). Well, Votto has dropped off and soooo, I am at it again (and hopefully this will spark another Votto and Reds outburst). I am again “tugging on Superman’s cape.” However, before you flood my inbox, phone, twitter, and facebook with accusations of hating Joey Votto; hear me out.

I do not think Votto sucks – I think quite the opposite – in fact, I have written articles making the argument that he the best hitter in baseball. By MLB standards, Votto is having a very good year. Here is the rub. Joey Votto is not your average very good MLB player. He is an all-time great MLB player. And, more importantly, this Reds team cannot win in October (or maybe even get to October) if Votto performs just ‘very good.’ This team needs Votto to perform like the Votto this league has come to know. They need Votto to bat .320ish. They need him to knock in 100+ runs. They need 25-30 HRs. They need the walks. They need top of the league in doubles. They can’t afford 140+ strikeouts (which Votto is currently on pace for) or 18 errors (which he is also on pace for). Not from Joey Votto.

Maybe it isn’t fair to expect Votto to have an MVP type year this year (or any year for that matter), but that is: 1) what this offense needs of him in order to make and advance in the playoffs, 2) it is what Votto has earned as his expectations, 3) quite frankly it is what he is paid to do (like it or not, when you have the richest contract in baseball, the expectation is that you will perform at a level which will at least put you in the MVP discussion – that does not describe Votto in 2013 so far), and 4) last and most importantly, it is what Votto expects of himself. Do you think Votto is satisfied with his play in 2013 so far? He is not. You can see it on his face and in his reactions. Look at him and his reactions when he strikes out or makes an error. He knows he is better than his performance right now.

Is it fair to ask Votto to bat .300? I think so. Is it fair to expect Votto to walk more often than he strikes out? I think so. Is it fair to ask Votto to have an RBI/K ratio of close to 1/1? I think so. Is it fair to ask your 2 time gold glove first baseman to make less than 18 errors? Again, I think so. Here are the numbers folks (don’t shoot the messenger):

Votto’s Average by Month

Month	Avg.
April	.291
May	.388
June	.297
July	.267

He has been over .300 for exactly 1 out of 4 months. Yes, he was amazing in May, but, for nearly a quarter of the season, Joey Votto is batting .289. Those are not Joey Votto numbers. A .289 average won’t get most players into the All-Star Game unless you have a name to carry you. And a .289 average from Joey Votto likely will not mean good things for the Reds in October.

Votto’s K/BB/RBI by Month

Month	K	BB	RBI
April	29	26	11
May	19	20	16
June	21	14	11
July	14	11	4

Again, only 1 month (May…and barely) where Votto had more BB’s or RBI than K’s. The walks/K ratio (.855) is just about at his average for the past 4 years (.820), but the K/RBI ratio is disturbing. The last 4 years, Votto’s K/RBI ratio is 1.25 K/RBI. This year? Nearly 2 K’s for every RBI (1.97 K/RBI)! Again, these are numbers are not reminiscent of the Votto we know. Beyond the numbers, watch Votto. In the past, you never felt like he gave away an AB. That can’t be said this year. This year he has had numerous AB’s where he has looked lost. Sure he is on pace for a career high in BB’s (121 to 110), but he is also on pace for a career high for K’s (142 to 129). I am more concerned about K’s than I am excited about BB’s. I can handle K’s if he is knocking in runs. The year he had 129 K’s, he had 103 RBI’s. This year he is on pace for 72 RBI’s with 142 K’s. That is a terrible ratio.

Votto’s 2B’s by Month

Month	Avg.
April	3
May	7
June	5
July	4

Last year, in an injury plagued 111 games, Votto had 44 2Bs. In 2013, he is on pace for just 32 in a full season.

Votto with Runners On

	Bases Empty	Runners on	RISP
2013	.333	.297	.318
2012	.326	.353	.370
2011	.287	.339	.383
2010	.278	.379	.369

Most would say his low RBI numbers are a result of no one being on. That is not necessarily true (see below). The problem is Votto is not hitting the way he used to with runners on. He is hitting 40-80 points lower with runners on in 2013 compared to the past 3 years and 50-75 points lower with RISP. That is a huge difference!

 

RBI’s

Votto is on pace for 72 RBI’s. Let that sink in for a second. 72. I know what you are thinking: “he has no one on in front of him.” Well, not really. In his MVP year of 2010, Votto had 130 AB’s with RISP (he had 113 RBI’s in 2010). He is on pace this year for 146 AB’s with RISP. In 2011, 146 AB’s with RISP and 103 RBI. In 2012, 73 AB’s with RISP and 56 RBI’s. So, he is actually hitting just as much (or more) in 2013 with RISP and yet is on pace for about 2/3 the RBI.

Votto’s Errors

He has 10 errors in 94 games (1 every 9.4 games). His previous high? 11…for a year!

 

Lastly, look at the numbers below:

	AB	R	H	2B	BB	K	RBI	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A	571	101	185	44	46	36	99	24	.324	.381	.534	.916
B	600	113	191	32	121	142	72	26	.318	.434	.506	.939

 

Player A is Sean Casey from 2004. 2004 was in Casey’s hey day and was one of his better years.

Player B is Votto’s projected 2013 numbers. I don’t think anyone would argue that Casey is/was a better player than Votto, but looking at these comparisons makes Votto (this year) look like a very expensive Sean Casey. In fact, Casey had 3 years very similar to the one above. Votto is on pace for 27 less RBI’s than Casey, 12 less 2B’s, and 4 times as many strikeouts…4 times as many strikeouts. So, what’s my point? My point is that no one would argue that Casey is the player Votto is, but, the guys around Casey in his years couldn’t hold a candle to the guys Votto has around him, yet Casey had better numbers. Votto is playing ok, but ok just won’t cut it this year. The Reds need great from him.

In reference to my earlier article on Votto, I stated that the Reds success very closely mirrors that of Votto. I was ridiculed. Chew on this for a bit…in May, Votto was on a terror batting .388, he had his most 2B’s (7), HR’s (6), RBI’s (16), and the Reds were 11 games over .500. On July 19^th they are still 11 over .500. Outside of May, Votto has been average (.289) – and so have the Reds (34-34). Coincidence? I think not.