With the trade deadline 3 days away, Reds fans are
clamoring for information on IF or WHO the Reds will trade for. I have news
folks, the Reds have nothing to offer at the minor league level as far as bats
go (look at the minor league hitting stats…brutal!), and they aren’t going to
trade Cingrani or Stephenson. If they want an impact player, they are going to
have to give up major league talent, and, despite what many fans think, you
cannot trade crappy players for good players. That is not how it works. The
Marlins aren’t going to take Heisey for Stanton no matter how much you want
them to. News flash Reds fans, if you don’t think a guy is good, why the hell
would someone else.
IF the Reds make a trade, it is likely going to be an
unexpected one (from a fan and media perspective). Look at the past. Raise your
hand if you saw the Rolen trade coming. How about Broxton? So who might it be
this year? Where is the surprise trade? I have my money on Homer Bailey or
Chapman. Here are my trading chips (in order) if I am Walt Jocketty:
Homer Bailey
You read this correct. Like I said, if you want a good
player, you are going to have to part with a good player. Bailey fits the bill
and nothing has more value than pitching (especially starting pitching). Bailey
has a 3.84 ERA, leads the team in strikeouts, and also has 2 no-hitters in the
past 9 months.
Why teams would want him: 1) He is a good SP (see stats
above); 2) He is 27; 3) He is affordable; 4) He is not a FA for 2 years; 5) He
has 2 no-hitters in the past 9 months; 6) He has #1 type stuff; 7) Many believe
he still has untapped potential
So, why would I trade him? 1) The Reds have depth at SP
(Cueto (assuming he is healthy), Latos, Frisbee, Leake, Cingrani, and
Stephenson in the pipeline) – Cingrani can take his place in the rotation right
now and the team doesn’t lose a beat (may actually be slightly better – and he
is younger and cheaper); 2) Despite his potential, I still don’t trust him – he
is now 27 yet he still seems immature, seems to have problems between his ears,
and is still wildly inconsistent and tough to count on; 3) If the Reds make the
playoffs, he may not even start – assuming they are all healthy, the Reds top 4
pitchers this year are Cueto, Latos, Frisbee, Leake. So, if he isn’t going to
start for you in the playoffs, why not trade him?
Caveat: Arroyo is a FA after this year. The Reds may not
resign him (though I would like them to). Were they to trade Bailey and lose
Frisbee, that would leave an opening in their rotation and I am not sure
Stephenson would be ready to fill that just yet (though maybe Chapman does…if
they don’t trade him).
Aroldis Chapman
Yup. He is next on my list of trading chips.
Why teams would want him: Not sure this needs to be
explained, but: 1) He is a dominant closer; 2) Left handed; 3) Throws 100mph+;
4) He is 25; 5) He is affordable; 4) He is not FA eligible until 2017; 5) He
could potentially start.
So, why would I trade him?: 1) He is a luxury – dominant
closers with high price tags are luxuries; luxuries the Reds cannot afford.
When he does become a FA (assuming he wants to stay in the closer role), the
Reds can’t, and shouldn’t, resign him. If he wants to start, this may change my
opinion; 2) If you aren’t going to resign him, why not get something good for
him? He may never have more trade value than he does now – sell high; 3) Closer
is the most overrated position in baseball (maybe all of sports). Don’t believe
me? As dominant as you think Chapman is, his WAR is 1.2. Yup. Meaning if the
Reds replaced him with an average closer, it would cost them 1 win. His career
save percentage is 84%. Remember how bad Coco was (and no I do not miss Coco)?
Coco’s save percentage for the Reds was 86%. You read that right too. Would I trade
Chapman for Coco? Hell no. But my point is, he is not as dominant of a weapon
as we like to think. I would roll the dice with Broxton. It is a bit of a
gamble, but the Reds signed Broxton this year to be the closer, so they thought
he could do the job.
Caveat: You could be getting rid of a game changing pitcher
(if he does start) or an all-time great closer (the Reds have done this before –
see Trevor Hoffman). This is the chance you take when you make a trade.
Chris Heisey
Not a ton of trade value, but could be used as an additional
chip (see my proposed trade below).
Why teams would want him: 1) Solid starter (career .255
hitter with some power, some speed, and good defense); 2) Great bench player;
3) Good locker room guy; 4) Hard worker; 5) under 30 (28).
So, why would I trade him?: He could be a piece to a trade
that gets you what you want and he is not a guy you can't afford to lose…Paul
and Robinson would be adequate replacements.
Caveat: None really.
Here would be my #1 trade attempt:
Homer Bailey and Chris Heisey for Carlos Gonzalez (Cargo)
Why this makes sense for the Reds: The Reds have a plethora
of starting pitching and could afford the loss of Bailey. If the Reds make the
playoffs, Bailey is their 4th starter at best (though if they go
with 4 starters, Leake should be the guy since he leads the team in ERA).
Trading Bailey opens a spot in the rotation for Cingrani the rest of this year
and Cingrani has been pitching as well, if not better than Bailey. What the
Reds do need is a left fielder, a cleanup hitter (BP is better suited at #2),
and a reliable right handed bat. Cargo addresses all of these needs. Cargo is
hitting .298, .367 OBP, .965 OPS, .597 SLG, 67 RBI, 26 HRs 19 SB. He would lead
the Reds in HRs, 3Bs, SBs, SLG, OPS, and WAR, and be 2nd or 3rd
in 2Bs, RBI, Avg, OBP, Runs, and Hits. I think that would help. Imagine the
following lineup and rotation entering the playoffs:
1) Choo 1) Cueto
2) Phillips 2) Latos
3) Votto 3) Arroyo
4) Cargo 4) Leake
5) Bruce 5) Cingrani
6) Frazier
7) Cozart
8) Mesaraco
I like my chances with both of those. Cargo is 27 and is signed through 2017. One issue is his salary ($7.5M in 2013, $10.5M, $16M, $17M, $20M in the years to follow). Keep in mind, Arroyo’s salary ($11.5M) comes off in 2014 if they do not resign him (which I do not think they will). My plan would be to let Arroyo walk, move Chapman to the rotation, and move Broxton to the closer role (I know Reds fans are uneasy about this, but see my stats above about closers). The other question is what to do with Ludwick then? Look, don’t expect too much of Ludwick. A torn labrum is not an easy injury to come back from, especially in regards to hitting and hitting with power – and even tougher for a 35 year old. Have him come off the bench this year – doing so would strengthen the Reds bench – and if he plays well trade him in the offseason (this would free up the money as well for Cargo’s salary - $8.5M). If he doesn’t play well enough this year to trade, worst case scenario is that he comes off the bench next year (and that isn’t a bad option either). If he plays well next year, he is trade bait at the trade deadline – the Yankees love collecting old players with borderline talent and production.
Why this makes sense for the Rockies: The Rockies are still
in the hunt for the NL West (5 back) and they need pitching…particularly
starting pitching (they have Jeff Francis and Roy Oswalt starting games for
gods sake!). The Rockies don’t have a problem scoring runs (3rd in
NL), they have a problem keeping other teams from scoring runs (12th
in ERA – 4.10). Bailey would immediately
be one of their top 3 pitchers (something he is not with the Reds this year and
may not be next year either). He would lead the Rockies in K’s, K’s/9, IP, WHIP
and be 2nd in QS. He would give them a young (27) pitcher with good
stuff, good potential, 2 no-hitters (including 2 in his last 25 starts), and a
guy they can control for a few more years at a reasonable cost (FA in 2015 –
currently $5.3M).
Why this trade makes sense all around? A good trade leaves
both teams better off. The Rockies with Bailey and Heisey are in a better position
than the Rockies with Cargo and whomever their #5 starter is. The pickup of Bailey
moves their 4 starter to their #5 spot, and their #5 starter to AAA. The Reds
are better off with Cargo in their lineup than they are with Bailey and Heisey
in their lineup – after losing 2 games by a total of 6-2, it is easy to see
pitching is not the problem, the bats are the problem.
Will it happen? I wouldn’t hold your breath (unless Walt
follows my blog or my twitter posts). But I see this as a great trade and great
opportunity for both teams to better themselves short term and long term.
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