Welcome to the worst week in sports, kicked off last night
by the worst announce in sports (Berman). Btw, someone needs to put Berman with
his back facing a cliff and let him walk “back, back, back, back, back, back,…..”
until he is gone! But I digress.
While not the literal halfway point, the All-Star game is the
proverbial ‘halfway point’ in baseball and is a perfect time to hand out grades
and evaluate a team’s 1st half performance and analyze their playoff
chances. So, lets’ hand ‘em out for our Redleggers.
The Reds hit the proverbial halfway point at what most would
consider a disappointing 53-42; on pace for 90 wins. Most disappointing has to
be the 3rd place position they currently hold in NL Central. If the
season would end today, the Reds would play in Pittsburgh for a 1 game play-in with
a reward of playing the best team in baseball, the Cardinals. Say what you want
about injuries etc., but if you told me at the beginning of the year that this
team would be the 2nd wild card team, I would consider that a failed
season of epic proportions. I will concede that the Reds have had a lot of
injuries, and some big ones (Ludwick and Cueto have basically missed the entire
season), but who hasn’t? The Cardinals lost Carpenter for the year and Garcia
for most of the season; they have the best record in baseball and have
outclassed the Reds in each head-to-head meeting. Here are the 12oz grades at
the break - broken down by player and position (warning – they ain’t pretty!):
Starting Pitching (A+)
All 5 starters (6 if you include Cueto) have ERA’s under
3.85. In fact, the Reds have all five starters in the top 31 in ERA. That is
amazing. What is more amazing is that a team with that good of pitching is in 3rd
place (we will get to that issue later).
Johnny Cueto (N/A)
4-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 9 games. Good numbers, but he can’t
stay on the field, and therefore Cueto has been disappointing. He has now been
on the DL 3 times this year, 4 times since the playoffs last year, and mostly
with the same issue. That is concerning to me. What else is concerning to me is
Cueto’s fitness level. He has put on a bunch of lb’s since coming to the majors
(and not good lb’s…not the BALCO or Biogenesis type, the Krispy Kreme type) and
now he is having issues staying healthy due to muscle issues. To me, that
screams fitness level and I am not sure I see Cueto as dedicated enough to fix
the issue and take care of himself. Maybe a change in delivery would help, but
that is a tall mid-season order, and even if he were to make the change, would
he be the same Johnny Cueto? Eventually maybe, but it would be doubtful that
would occur this season.
Mat Latos (A)
8-3, 3.53 ERA, and leads the team in strikeouts (127). Despite
looking shaky his past few starts, Latos, for the most part, has been an ace
this year. If not for being victimized by a stretch of shaky bullpen pitching,
you would be looking at a guy with a 13-3 record and the most wins in the NL.
My concern with Latos is his ability to go deep in games consistently.
Bronson Arroyo – aka Frisbee (A)
Arroyo does what Arroyo does. He consistently gives you
quality starts, lots of innings, and gets banged around 1 in every 10 or so
starts. He is tied for the team lead in wins (8), leads the team in IP (123.2),
and is sporting a 3.42 ERA. Arroyo is the most underappreciated player on this
team, and probably the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball. I will take
these numbers from a “#3” any day.
*NOTE: This grade does not take into account any singing or
commercials done by Arroyo. If we average that in, he gets a C-.
Homer Bailey (C+)
Tough grade for a guy who just threw a no hitter, but the no
hitter just shows why Bailey drives me (and many) nuts. He shows how good he
could be if he could get things situated between his shoulders. His 3.82 ERA is
solid, but his record is 5-8 and is a result of the Jeykl and Hyde which is
Bailey. He throws a no hitter, then shows his continued maturity issues by
taking a shot at the Reds announcers, declining an interview with 700wlw, and
worst of all, follows it up with a total of 11.2 IP, 20 H, and 8 R over his
next two starts. In 8 of Bailey’s 19 starts, he has given up 4+ runs, including
3 times 6+ runs. And 5 of his 19 starts he has failed to make it to the 6th
inning. He may not be #5 in the order, but Bailey is the #5 starter on this
team, and in all likelihood, should be the #6 when/if Cueto rejoins the
rotation.
Mike Leake (A+++)
Where would this team be without Leake? The supposed “#5”
starter this year; the guy who everyone wanted Chapman to replace (myself included)
at the start of the year; and the guy who everyone wanted sent to AAA when
Cueto came back the first time (including yours truly again - good thing I have
a blog instead of a talk show, because it is much easier to type with your foot
in your mouth than talk with your foot in your mouth!). All Leake has done is
lead the team in ERA (an amazing 2.69 – good for 7th in the NL) and tied
for the team lead in Wins (8). Numbers I believe any team would take from a #5.
Tony Cingrani (A+)
The rookie has been good. With 10 starts under his belt, he
is 3-1 with an impressive 3.23 ERA, good for 2nd best ERA amongst
starters. He has certainly earned a spot in the rotation, but will likely be
the victim of the numbers came when Cueto comes back. Cingrani strikes out a
lot of batters (10.83 k/9, 3rd only to Chapman and Parra), but he
also walks a lot (a whopping 2.6 per start). Both contribute to his inability
to pitch late into games (4 IP with just 1 ER in his last start), which will
ultimately cost him a spot in the rotation when Cueto comes back.
Relief Pitching (B)
The bullpen has epitomized the inconsistencies of this team.
At times they have been an A+ and at other times an F. No in between with this
unit.
Manny Parra (B+)
A very pleasant surprise. Did not deserve a spot on the team,
but was likely awarded one based on being a lefty and not having options. After
a rough start, Parra has earned his spot and been invaluable to this pen as the
sole lefty. With a 3.86 ERA and 15 straight appearances without giving up an
ER, Parra has been great.
Alfredo Simon (B+)
The most overlooked guy in the pen, but overlooked because
he usually doesn’t do anything bad for you to notice. With a 2.92 ERA, he has
put together another solid year.
Sam Lecure (A-)
Aka, the Magic Moustache! With the exception of about a 2
week streak where Lecure seemed to go all Mitch Williams on us, the Moustache
has been up to his normal magicianery! Another guy that gets little recognition
because he doesn’t have noticeable stuff, Lecure just gets the job done. With a
2.23 ERA, Lecure, like Simon, is putting together another good year.
Sean Marshall (N/A)
The bullpen has really missed Marshall and this team could
really benefit from his return in the 2nd half.
Ondrusek/Partch (B-)
They have filled in admirably when called upon. However,
neither has shown anything to make me feel comfortable if the team needs them
for long stretches during the season.
JJ Hoover
Hoover has more losses (5) than all but Bailey and Arroyo.
He was the goat at the beginning of the year but seems to have really settled
in after a rough start. With a 3.69 ERA and nearly 10 k/9, Hoover is a
legitimate contender for the setup roll.
Jonathan Broxton (D)
He signed believing he would be the closer and then had it
taken from him because Chapman didn’t want to start. Maybe that threw him off.
Either way, with 3 blown saves and a 4.33 ERA, Broxton has been brutal this
year…and those numbers don’t even tell the story of how bad he really has been.
Now on the DL with elbow issues, it seems like Broxton’s disappointing season
could get worse.
Aroldis Chapman (C)
I still believe he should have been a starter. The only way
I like this move is if Chapman is dominant in the closer role. He has been
anything but this year. As the closer in 2013, he has been good, but not great.
His ERA is nearly double that of last year (1.51 vs 2.79), opponents OBP is 60
points higher (.225 vs .285), he already has 3 BS in just 24 chances, and his
save percentage is a pretty average (87.5%).
Choo (B)
A great addition and tremendous upgrade offensively. After
cooling off from his blazing start, Choo has settled back in and wrapped up a
solid 1st half. The only keeping him from a higher grade is his
putrid numbers against lefties (.175 vs .342 against righties). It is so bad
that Dusty needs to think about moving him down against lefties.
Cozart (D)
His offense has been very disappointing this year. After a
decent rookie year, Cozart is batting a measly .233 and killing this offense in
the 2 spot. Cozart has made 295 outs! Only 2 players in the NL have made more
outs. Having him in front of Votto is killing this offense. Oh yeah, he is also
7th in the NL for Double Plays Grounded into.
Votto (C-)
I will get into this deeper later this week, but it seems
like a very tough grade. However, I am grading him against my expectations (and
I am sure Votto’s as well). While his average and OBP is good for a normal
player, Votto is not a normal player, and therefore they are subpar for Votto.
He is also on pace for a career low in 2B’s and RBI’s and a career high in K’s.
On top of that, Votto has just looked lost at the plate this year for long
stretches at a time. I’ve said it before, and I will say it again, fair or not,
but for this team to win come October, they need more than what they are
getting from Votto right now.
Phillips (B)
Phillips has benefitted from his move to the 4 spot. Leading
the team in RBI’s (74) and on pace for his first 100+ RBI season (126). Prior
to being hit by a pitch on the arm, BP would have been an A. However, since
that time, he has been in a bit of a slump. The team could really benefit from
BP getting back into his early season groove.
Bruce (B)
Started painstakingly slow, but has picked it up since. Up
to .277, leading the team in HRs (19), and back on pace for another 30+ HR
season. Though still frustratingly inconsistent, he seems to have been more
consistent (or less volatile) so far this year.
Frazier (D)
Frazier would have to be one of the biggest disappointments
so far. After having a legitimate shot at ROY last year, Frazier has definitely
taken a step back this year. The Reds don’t need him to hit .300 or hit 30 HRs,
but they do need him to hit about .260 with 20-25 HRs. He is currently hitting
a pedestrian .239 and on pace for 17 HRs and 140 K’s. The Reds could use the
Frazier of 2012.
LF (C)
Paul and Robinson did a decent job while Heisey was hurt,
and since coming back, Heisey has been very good. However, overall the LF
position has been disappointing and the Reds could really use Ludwick back.
Catcher (D-)
The Reds need more from their catchers. Hanigan and Mesaraco
are batting .193 and .234 respectively. That just is not good enough.
Defense (C+)
While still 8th best in the majors (in terms of
errors), this team is better than the way they have played. Tops on this list
is Votto. Votto now has 10 errors in just 94 games. His previous high is 11…for
an entire season! At times, he (and others) just don’t seem mentally into the
game. The Reds need better defense in the 2nd half.
Bench (F)
Does this team have a bench? They have basically 0
production coming from the bench.
BaseRunning (F)
Man does this team shoot themselves in the foot on the base
paths. It seems like they run themselves out of innings more than any team I
can remember (BP being the biggest culprit).
Fundamentals (F)
How hard is it to get a bunt down, or get a guy in from 3rd
with less than 2 outs, or get a hit with RISP? For this team, it seems damn
near impossible, and damn frustrating.
Baseball IQ (F)
Again, frustrating. How many times do you see a guy (or 2)
strikeout with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs? Or ground into a
double play in the same situation. Or not hitting behind a runner. Or being
picked off. It just seems like this team is walking around with their head in
the clouds.
Coaching (F)
This team is on pace for 90 wins and the 2nd wild
card. This team is better than 90 wins and the 2nd wild card. If
your team finishes below expectations, I put some of that (though not all) on
the manager. Baker’s refusal to move Cozart from the 2 spot or use Chapman for
an occasional 4 out save or bring him in for a hold has cost this team at least
6-8 games this year (remember when he used a hurt Broxton rather than a healthy
and rested Chapman in Chicago…and Broxton went on the DL the next day?). Raise
your hand if you think those 4-6 games won’t matter. Has he won some? Probably.
But I am comfortable saying he has lost more games for this team than he has
won.
Front Office (D)
This team has 0 bench help, has played shorthanded on
numerous occasions, and is not hitting at any level of the organization…yet all
the hitting coaches remain. These are shortcoming that fall in the lap of organization.
Mid-Season Awards
MVP: Mike Leake
Offensive MVP: Phillips
Defensive MVP: Phillips
Play of the Year: Phillips double play on his knee
Rookie of the Year: Cingrani
Biggest Surprise (good): Mike Leake
Biggest Disappointment: Johnny Cueto
No comments:
Post a Comment