The Bad and the Ugly...no Good

And that, my friends, is why they play the game on the field and not on paper. On paper, the Bengals are heads and heels better than the Browns. On paper, the Bengals destroy the Browns. On paper, this game had no business of even being close. On the field, the Bengals apparently thought their paper advantage was all they needed to win. On the field, the game wasn’t close…it’s just it was the Browns doing the beating and the Bengals taking the beating.

 

The Good

I try to always find a silver lining after every Bengals game. Regardless of how bad a game was, there is always something you hang your hat on and say that the Bengals did well. Something that showed promise.  Not Sunday. I can honestly say there was nothing this team did well in Cleveland. Even though the defense only gave up 17 points, they had 0 turnovers, had little pressure on Hoyer, and they still gave up 336 yards (including two 90+ yard scoring drives) to an offense led by Brian Hoyer at QB and fresh off the couch Willis McGahee at RB. 

 

The Bad

The Defense – Hard to put a lot of blame on a defense that was missing their two best secondary players and only gave up 17 points, but: 1) they still should have been able to manhandle the Browns offense (specifically the OL) and they did not; 2) they forced 0 turnovers from a team that was averaging more than 2 turnovers per game; and 3) they folded when they were needed most – down just 4 with the Browns pinned on their own 9 yard line, the defense allowed Hoyer to lead the Browns on a 91 yard, 6:37 4^th quarter drive to put the game out of reach (his 2^nd 90+ yard TD drive of the game.

 

The DL – Many have called this Bengals DL the best in the NFL (myself included). 3 sacks generally would be considered good, but not for this DL facing this Browns OL. The Browns were surrendering nearly 5 sacks per game, so to get just 3 is disappointing. More disappointing was the amount of time Hoyer had in the pocket for most of the day. The depleted secondary needed help from the DL and they did not provide enough of it.

 

Ball Skills of the Secondary – Does no one on this coaching staff teach these guys to find the ball? It seems as though every week, every year, I watch Bengals DBs have good coverage yet give up a reception (and miss an INT) simply because they didn’t turn to find the ball. This week it was Jones who allowed Gordon to literally catch a ball off of Jones’ head. If Jones just turns his head, he at a minimum knocks the pass down and he likely has an INT. It could have been a big play/non-play if Billy Cundiff wasn’t such a useless kicker.

 

Alex Smith Playing Time – With Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert on this team, I do not understand how Alex Smith played 10 snaps (or 15% of the snaps). In what is looking like a terrible roster mistake, the Bengals kept 3 TEs plus a converted TE as a FB (Charles), yet Charles is so bad at blocking, he is inactive on game days and they filled an actual TE (Smith) in as a FB on the train wreck 4^th and 1.  

 

 

The Ugly

Andy Dalton – I have been a pretty staunch supporter of Dalton over his 2+ years in Cincinnati and preached patience amongst Bengals fans. Many fans forget just how good his numbers have been in his first 2 years (1 of only 3 QBs with 20+ TDs in his first 2 seasons – Marino and Manning), just how far he has taken this team (first back-to-back playoff appearances since Ken Anderson - 1981-82; something Boomer never did; including a playoff appearance in 2011 with a team some picked to go 0-16), and just how young he is (3^rd year and 25 years old). With that being said, it is getting more and more difficult to defend him when the progression just doesn’t seem to be there. While Dalton was not the sole reason for the Bengals 2 losses, he was a big contributor (with poor decisions and turnovers), and in each loss, he had the opportunity to win the game and failed miserably. Worse yet, the reason the Pittsburgh and GB games were as close as they were is because of Dalton’s poor play at the start of the games. If not for the Steelers fumble and the defense returning a fumble for a TD last week, we might be sitting here talking about an 0-4 team. The sad part is, Dalton has more than enough weapons in Green, Gresham, Eifert and Bernard. Other QBs would kill for those weapons. Green is a top 5 WR that catches everything in his zip code and Dalton managed to complete just 7 of his 15 passes to Green on Sunday. Given the weapons he has, Dalton should not have to be just a “game manager,” but if he could simply “manage the game” and not turn the ball over, this defense is good enough to win games for Dalton. Unfortunately, Dalton has not been able to do that. In 2013, Dalton now has more turnovers (6 – 4 INTs, 2 fumbles) than TDs (5). He is on pace for 20 TDs, 15 INTs and 8 fumbles. That is not good and I don’t by the “it’s early” argument. It may only be 4 games, but 4 games in the NFL is ¼ of the season. That is the equivalent of 40 games in baseball. And after ¼ of the season, the Bengals sit at 2-2, tied for the division lead (but down a tie-breaker to Cleveland) and 2 losses behind the leading WC candidate (KC). I am not ready to pull the plug just yet on Dalton, but I am also not willing to resign him for big money either. The defense is playing lights out and the offense has the weapons to be dynamic, but without Dalton playing at a respectable level, this is what you get – close games and losses to teams you have no business losing to.

 

Jay Gruden –  For all the praise Gruden gets and all the discussion amongst media types that he is a potential HC candidate, his lack of production seems to be conveniently forgotten. I could listen to the guy talk all day (he and his brother are phenomenal in interviews, etc), but right now I can’t stand watching his offense for 3 hours every Sunday. In his three seasons in Cincinnati, his offenses have ranked 20^th, 22^nd, and 21^st respectively. I would give him a pass in 2011 with no mini camps and a rookie QB and rookie WR, but that was his best year! Gruden has weapons that would make any OC in the NFL jealous yet the offense looks completely dysfunctional. The offense I saw against Chicago was dynamic and exciting. Since then, I haven’t seen anything other than a Bratkowskiesque offense.

 

3^rd Down Conversions – The Bengals failed on both sides on 3^rd downs. The offense was a brutal 4-14 (28.6%) and the defense was an equally brutal 9-18 (50%). It is tough for an offense to establish any flow when they can’t stay on the field on 3^rd downs and a defense giving up a 50% conversion to an offense featuring Brian Hoyer and Willis McGahee is embarrassing.

 

4^th and 1 Failure – I actually liked the balls it took to go for the 4^th and 1. I despise the play call. Everyone in the world knew BJGE up the middle was coming. Hell, the Browns wanted that to be the case. That plays right into their strength. If the running game was working, I’m ok with it. If defending the run was not the Browns strength, I would be ok with it. But the run game wasn’t working (at least not with BJGE) and the defending the run is Browns strength. I would have liked to see something more creative. If the huge failure of a play wasn’t bad enough, according to Whitworth, a bunch of the players did not know what play they were running – which means Dalton is at fault for not calling a timeout.

 

Messed up Snap – The inability of the Bengals to complete one of the most fundamental aspects of a football game (the snap) may have cost the Bengals the game. At the end of the 3^rd quarter, the Bengals had pulled within 4 (10-6), the defense gets a huge 3 and out (yielding -9 yards), the Bengals get good field position and convert a huge 3^rd and 13 with a nice catch from Gresham taking them down to the Cleveland 41, just a first down out of FG range. Then Cook and Dalton screw up a snap like I have never seen before, leaving the Bengals an insurmountable 2^nd and 24. The Bengals would stall, punt, and the Browns would take it 91 yards to take a 17-6 lead with less than 5:00 to play. Game over.

 

Marvin Jones – Rule #1 as a receiver: catch the ball with your hands, not your body. Apparently Jones is unaware of this rule. It may not have mattered, but it just goes to show the lack of discipline by this team and shows why Jones doesn’t play more. One of Dalton’s better passes of the day would have left the Bengals with a little hope if Jones catches it with his hands. Instead, he used his body and had it knocked loose. Sanzenbacher may not have the pure skills as some of the other WRs, but I trust him to make smart plays and would like to see him play more.

 

Preparation – It is a topic every week, so I am not going to harp on it, but the 3^rd down conversion rates, poor execution, poor play calling, etc are all just parts of the poor preparation we seem to see week in and week out with this 2013 Bengals team.

 

Lost Opportunity – True, they are still tied at the top of the division at 2-2, but with Baltimore and Pittsburgh losing, they had the opportunity to take a 1 game lead on the Ravens, a 3 game lead on the Steelers, a 2 game lead on the Browns and get a second division win. Separation is great. Early separation is really great.

 

Marvin Lewis’s Record Against Backup and Rookie QBs – Over his 10 year tenure, Lewis has lost 22 times to a rookie or backup QB…or 2+ per year. Add Brian Hoyer to the list that includes: Jeff Blake, Anthony Wright, Ben Roethlisberger (2), Billy Volek, Kelly Holcomb, Bruce Gradkowski (2 - 1 as a rookie, 1 as a backup), Jay Cutler, Derek Anderson, J.P. Losman, Shaun Hill, Joe Flacco (2), Mark Sanchez (2), Seneca Wallace, T.J. Yates (2), Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and now the elite passer Brian Hoyer. That is embarrassing.

 

 

2013 Battle of Ohio: Part I

Over the last 10 years (since Marvin Lewis became the Bengals coach), the Bengals have dominated the Battle of Ohio 15-5. During those 10 years, the Bengals have an overall record of 81-81-1 and just 2 seasons of double digit losses. In that same time period, the Browns are 53-110 and have 9 seasons of double digit losses. However, no matter how lopsided the game looks on paper, the game itself if rarely lopsided. In those 10 years, the Bengals have outscored the Browns 516-402, or by an average of just 5.8 ppg. The last 20 meetings have only seen 3 games decided by more than 14 points (2004-Browns 34-17; and 2006-Bengals 34-17 and Bengals 30-0). In fact, take out 2006, and the Bengals have outscored the Browns by a less than 4 points per game (452-385). In the last 6 matchups, the Bengals are 4-2 but have only outscored the Browns by 9 total points. So what does this all mean? Nothing really. But chances are, the game will be closer than we think.

 

What to Look For….

 

When the Browns Run the Ball:

This isn’t a joke. The Browns will try and run the ball at some point Sunday. On the year, the Browns have a total of 215 rushing yards – 105 of which were traded to Indianapolis (Richardson), 34 of which have come from a DB (Aubrey), 22 of which have come from a WR (Gordon) and 5 of which have come from a QB (7 – Weeden, -2 Hoyer). That leaves 49 yards from actual RBs. Their started for Sunday (McGahee) just joined the team last week and has 9 yards on 8 carries. So while the Browns “technically” have a run game, I am going to say the Bengals (like all 3 teams before them), make the Browns run game a non-factor.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Browns Throw the Ball:

Hoyer has 150 career passes…54 of which came last week. With that said, Hoyer was much better than I expected last week. 321 yards, 3 TDs and a win against a playoff team from 2012 (Minnesota). However, it took him 54 passes to get there, he only completed 55% of his passes, he had a 68.5 rating and threw 3 picks. He was also facing a defense ranked 29^th overall - 28^th against the pass and had just 1 sack going into the game. Suffice it to say, the Bengals 11^th ranked defense (13^th against the pass) and their stout DL should provide a much more difficult challenge. However, the Bengals must get pressure on Hoyer, something that shouldn’t be a problem against a line that has allowed 14 sacks in 3 games. If they don’t, the Browns and Hoyer have the weapons in Gordon, Little, Bess and Cameron to take advantage of an injury riddled Bengals secondary. Ultimately, with an inexperienced QB and a weak OL going up against a defense that had 51 sacks in 2012, the Bengals have a clear advantage again.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

The Browns have a very good defense, and it starts with the run defense. Despite playing Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, the Browns are ranked 7^th against the run and held Rice and Peterson to 36 and 88 yards respectively (3.26 ypc) and 1 TD combined. In week 1, the Browns held the Dolphins to just 20 yards on the ground! The Bengals have not exactly lit the world on fire with their ground game either. In 3 games, the Bengals are ranked just 21^st in rushing with 272 yards. However, what the Bengals have that the Browns other opponents did not, is 2 backs with distinctly different skill sets (BJGE and Bernard). The Bengals will try and use 2 TE sets and a decent dose of Bernard and his quickness to throw the Browns run defense. If the Bengals cannot at least establish some sense of a run game, it could cause issues for Dalton in the passing game. I think the Bengals establish enough of a run game to keep the Browns honest.

Advantage: Push

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Dalton has had success against the Browns with a 3-1 record and 8 TDs to just 4 INTs, but he will be facing a good Browns pass rush (12 sacks) and Joe Hayden will be blanketing his favorite target (Green). In their first ever meeting, Hayden held Green to essentially 0 catches (Green did have 1 catch for 41 yards and a TD – but that was when the Bengals snapped the ball and no one was on Green). Since then, Green has gotten the best of Hayden (11/27/11 – 4 rec, 110 yards, 0 TDs, long of 51; 10/14/12 – 11 rec, 135 yards, 2 TDs, long of 57). In fact, the worst game Green had against the Browns (9/16/12 – 7 rec, 58 yards, 1 TD) came in a game Hayden missed with a suspension. Despite Green’s success against Hayden, Hayden must still be respected as one of the premier cover corners in the NFL and thrown at with caution. Green will have plenty of opportunities 1-on-1 against Hayden, as I would expect the Bengals to go with a lot of 2 TE sets. Going with the 2 TE sets accomplishes 3 things: 1) it neutralizes the Browns pass rush - either having 2 extra blockers and making the line wider and the path to the QB longer, or by taking away 1 or 2 rushers by forcing them to cover the TEs; 2) it creates matchup advantages for the Bengals – forcing at least 1 LB on TE matchup and probably creating more 1-on-1 opportunities for Green; and 3) it spreads out the Browns stout run defense and creates more room for BJGE and Bernard. Lastly, the Bengals have a huge size advantage in the passing game. Of the Browns 8 secondary players, only 1 (backup FS Johnson Bademosi) stands above 5’11”…and he is listed at 6’0”. The Bengals will attack this small secondary with Green (6’4”), Sanu (6’2”), Jones (6’2”), Gresham (6’5”) and Eifert (6’6”). When in trouble, a jump ball in this game may not be a bad option.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaches:

In my recap last week, I forgot to give Marvin credit for finally having a great challenge which lead to the game turning fumble returned for a TD. Now you will see another rarity….me giving Marvin the edge in coaching! Not really because of anything Marvin has done, but more so because what Chudzinski has not done – he has only 3 games of HC experience and I was not impressed with what he did in Carolina as the OC…plus, I can’t give a guy with the name “Chud” the advantage in anything really.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Key to the Game:

Turnovers. Seems like a cop out, but with the Bengals DL and weapons on offense, going against the Browns putrid OL and inexperienced QB, I believe the only way the Browns have a legitimate chance against the Bengals on Sunday is by forcing turnovers – lots of them - and either scoring on defense or giving their offense short fields to work with. Seems like an easy recipe for the Bengals, but this is a team that shot themselves in the foot in Chicago with 3 turnovers (leading to 14 points) and nearly choked away the game against GB with 4 turnovers leading to 16 GB points.

 

Prediction:

On paper, this is a lopsided matchup, but the Battle of Ohio seems to always see a competitive matchup. While I do not see a blowout, I don’t see a particularly close game either. I see Bengals shutting down the Browns “run game” and getting a lot of pressure on Hoyer and forcing him into mistakes.

Bengals 27, Browns 13

 

 

 

Position by Position Breakdown: Bengals v Browns

Quarterback:

Hoyer did much better than expected last week (321 yards and 3 TDs) and should be given credit. However, lets’ not get carried away. He was going up against the 29^th ranked defense (28^th against the pass) and he did have 3 INTs, a 55.6% completion and a 68.3 rating. Hoyer and his 150 career passes (54 last week) will be facing a much better defense this week. Dalton on the other hand is a grisly veteran compared to Hoyer. Dalton has been under intense scrutiny from Bengals fans, and while he has had some head scratching and frustrating moments, overall, he is having a very solid season. 67% completion, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 93.2 rating and nearly 260 ypg. What Dalton needs to work on is his starts. In all 3 games, Dalton has gotten off to a poor start. It won’t get easier in week 4 against a very good Browns defense (6^th). Dalton has a clear advantage here.

	Bengals	Browns
QB	ü
OL	ü
RB	ü
WR	ü
TE	ü
DL	ü
LB		ü
CB		ü
S	ü
K	ü
Coach	ü
Overall	ü

Advantage: Bengals

 

Offensive Line:

Coming into the season, I believed the Browns had arguably the best OL in the division and one of the better OL in the NFL (and I think most Browns fans would agree). After 3 games, I am wrong. The Browns have surrendered 14 sacks in just 3 games and spurred a running attack so bad, the term “non-existent” would be a compliment. The Bengals DL should be able to disrupt the passing and “running game” of the Browns. The Bengals OL will have a tough task in keeping the Browns defense (12.0 sacks) off Dalton, however, they have faced 3 good pass rushing teams and have yielded only 5 sacks so far (though 4 did come last week). The Bengals OL will have their hands full with this Browns defense, but they are good enough to do so. The Browns on the other hand may not be capable of keeping the Bengals DL off Hoyer.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Running Backs:

This one is not even close…comical in fact. While BJGE has not had a great start, he and Bernard combine for a potent 1-2 punch. The Browns traded away their top RB (and best player) just last week and their leading rusher (Josh Aubrey) has 1 whole carry and 34 yards. They did pick up McGahee, and while I would expect him to be better with a full week of practice, McGahee is almost 32 and carried 8 times for just 9 yards (1.1 ypc) against the 21^st ranked run defense.  The Browns top 5 rushers have 16 carries and 0 TDs…combined, and 2 of those rushers (and 53% of the yards) are not even RBs (DB and WR). The Browns active RBs have 14 combined rushes for 49 yards compared to the Bengals 68 rushes, 239 yards and 4 TDs.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Wide Receivers:

With Gordon making a spectacular return (10 catches for 146 yards and 1 TD), the Browns certainly have a formidable trio of WRs (Gordon, Little and Bess) that can cause problems for any secondary, especially an injury depleted secondary like that of the Bengals. However, the Bengals clearly have the best WR on the field (Green) and with Green, Sanu and Jones, the Bengals still have the best trio as well.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Tight Ends:

Jordan Cameron is having one hell of a year (20 catches, 269 yards and 4 TDs) and may be the best TE on the field Sunday. However, the Bengals have and elite TE as well…in fact they have 2 elite TEs (Gresham and Eifert) whom they often use at the same time. While Cameron may be the best single TE on the field, and covering an elite TE is difficult, it is easier to cover 1 elite TE than it is to cover 2. Therefore, the Bengals have the edge at TE.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Defensive Line:

While the Browns have a good DL wit Bryant and Taylor, the Browns play the 3-4 and their strength is in the LB position. The Bengals on the other hand have what is arguably the best DL in the NFL with Atkins, Dunlap, MJ and Peko. The Browns porous OL will have issues keeping this DL off Hoyer and if the Browns are forced to keep Cameron in to block, that could really hurt the Browns and help the Bengals.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Line Backers:

While I believe the best LB on the field will be dawning stripes (Burfict), the Browns play 4 LBs, 3 of which (Kruger, Jackson and Mingo) have difference making ability. 3 difference making LBs to the Bengals 1 gives the Browns the edge at the LB position.

Advantage: Browns

 

Cornerbacks:

The Bengals have the better group of CBs with Newman, Hall, Jones and Kirkpatrick, however, all 4 are dealing with injuries and 1 or 2 may not even play (Hall and Kirkpatrick). The Browns clearly have the best CB overall with Hayden and with his success against Green, combined with the injury issues of the Bengals, the Browns have the CB advantage as well.

Advantage: Browns

 

Safeties:

Rarely do the Bengals have an advantage at safety, but this makes two weeks in a row. Reggie Nelson is a very good safety, Iloka is playing well, and the signing of Crocker gives them depth. However, this is not a group that gives the Bengals any difference making advantage. TJ Ward is a serviceable safety that has played well in the past against the Bengals, but not well enough to give the Browns an advantage.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Kicker:

It will be weird to see Billy Cundiff trot out onto the field Sunday rather than Phil Dawson, the Browns staple at kicker for seemingly forever. That is good news for the Bengals as Cundiff is not nearly the kicker Dawson is. Mike Nugent is a solid, not great kicker but has a career kicking percentage nearly 5 points better than Billy Cundiff (80.9 to 76.1).

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coach:

In my recap last week, I forgot to give Marvin credit for finally having a great challenge which lead to the game turning fumble returned for a TD. Now you will see another rarity….me giving Marvin the edge in coaching! Not really because of anything Marvin has done, but more so because what Chudzinski has not done – he has only 3 games of HC experience and I was not impressed with what he did in Carolina as the OC…plus, I can’t give a guy with the name “Chud” the advantage in anything really.

Advantage: Bengals

 

 

Week 4 Picks

If you went to Vegas and wanted my pick for the Thursday night game, you didn't get it in time. Too bad for you because it was right! After another respectable 10-6 week, I head into week 4 at 33-15. That is big money folks! Here are your week 4 Vegas winning tickets:

Week 4
49ers	49ers
@
Rams
Ravens	Ravens
@
Bills
Bengals	Bengals
@
Browns
Bears	Bears
@
Lions
Giants	Chiefs
@
Chiefs
Steelers	Vikings
@
Vikings
Cardinals	Cardinals
@
Buccaneers
Colts	Colts
@
Jaguars
Seahawks	Seahawks
@
Texans
Jets	Titans
@
Titans
Eagles	Broncos
@
Broncos
Redskins	Redskins
@
Raiders
Cowboys	Chargers
@
Chargers
Patriots	Falcons
@
Falcons
Dolphins	Saints
@
Saints
Record
Overall	33-15