Another stacked division in the NFC and very unpredictable. A
ton of offense and not much defense going on in the NFC South. Will the return
of Payton bring New Orleans back to prominence? Can the Falcons build on their
great 2012 run? Are the Bucs and/or Panthers ready to take the next step?
1)
New Orleans
2012
Record: 7-9; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 12-4 (Win division on tie-breaker)
Confidence
in Pick: 50%
Losses:
Jermon Bushrod, Devery Henderson, Chris Ivory, Will Smith (ACL)
Pickups:
Sean Payton, Kenny Vaccaro, Rob Ryan
Reasons
for Optimism:
Drew
Brees – Brees has lead the NFL in TDs 4 of the past 5 years and yards in 4
of the past 7 (including back-to-back 5,000+ yards seasons; and 3 5,000+ yard
seasons in the last 5 years). And, for what it is worth, he is 2nd
in passing yards amongst active QBs (P. Manning) and 10 TDs behind Brady for 2nd
on the active TDs leader board. Oh, and by the way, he has never had a top-tier
WR during his career. Colston, although not a dynamic WR by himself, does become
quite a weapon when combined with Graham at TE and Sproles out of the
backfield. I also really like Brees in 2013 because he is pissed about last
year’s suspensions and how he feels the NFL targeted the Saints unfairly. Don’t
think for a second that he and Payton won’t be looking to run up the score on
every team every week, just to shove it in the NFL’s face.
Sean
Payton – Regardless of what you think of him, he is an offensive genius and
his presence (or lack thereof) was a big reason for the Saints drop in 2012. As
I stated above, Payton and Brees are going to look to hang 50 points every game
in 2013. Give an offensive mind like Payton a QB like Brees and a one year
“sabbatical” to game plan his revenge on a league he believes has wronged him and
points will be put on the board at a historical pace. There won’t be white
mercy towels big enough for some of the Saints games this year.
Jimmy
Graham – With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham is the
biggest matchup problem in all of the NFL. LBs, safeties and average corners
can’t cover him. Teams can put their best CB on him, but then they expose
themselves to Colston. And, unless that CB is 6’4” or taller, it is almost like
taking candy from a baby in the redzone. Graham had 85 catches, 982 yards and 9
TDs in 2012 and that was considered a slight disappointment.
Darren Sproles – I believe Sproles to be matchup nightmare #2 in the NFL. He cannot be covered by one guy, especially if that guy is a LB. He doesn’t run much, but the short dump offs are just as/if not more effective than a run. Brees always has a man open – and that man is Sproles.
Rob
Ryan – I am no Rob Ryan fan. In fact, I think he is overrated as a
Defensive Coordinator. However, ‘overrated’ does not mean that he is not good.
He will improve this defense - how could he not, they gave up a staggering
7,042 yards (yes, you read that correct - I am pretty sure 11 drunk idiots from
the stands could mustard up that sort of a defensive performance). Though the
personnel is much the same, I like the addition of Kenny Vaccaro and Rob Ryan’s
aggressive play calling alone will make this defense better than in 2012. Oh
yeah, and Ryan is also angry regarding his Dallas dismissal. Bounty or no
bounty, this defense will be coming after people.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
The
Defense – 7,042 yards (440.1 per game)! That is simply embarrassing. Some
of that is a product of the talent in their division, but that talent hasn’t
gone down (in fact it has gone up). With Atlanta (Ryan, Jones, White, Gonzalez
and Jackson), Carolina (Newton, Smith, Stewart and Williams) and Tampa Bay
(Freeman, Jackson, Williams and Martin), this defense will have its’ work cut
out for it in 2013.
WRs
– Colston and Moore put up good numbers last year, but all WRs do that with
Brees. I still do not consider Colston to be a dominant WR. However, take this
with a grain of salt; Brees still threw for 5,000 plus yards and had 3
receivers (Colston, Moore, Graham) in the top 22 for yards (4 in the top 63 if
you count Sproles) and all 4 players ranked in the top 33 for receptions.
Running
Game – Mark Ingram has been a disappointment so far (602 yards in 2012),
however, he did average 3.9 ypc and I believe he will be the featured back in
2013 and finally have as much of a breakout type year (800-1,000 yards) as a RB
can have in this type of an offense. Also, the Saints basically use the dump
off to Sproles in place of a run game – and it worked to the tune of 75
catches, 667 yards (8.9 avg) and 7 TDs.
Overall:
I am going out on a huge limb on this one.
From strictly a talent standpoint, the Falcons are better. However, the Saints
have a decided advantage at the two most important spots – QB and Head Coach.
And, while Atlanta’s defense was better than NO’s in 2012, let’s not get
carried away, Atlanta owned the 24th ranked defense, surrendered
5,849 yards and were one boneheaded coaching decision away from continuing
their winless streak in the playoffs (I’m looking at you Pete Carroll). Given
the revenge I see Payton, Brees, Ryan, and all the Saints seeking, I see a huge
year from this team (remember, they were 13-3 the last time Brees and Payton
were together; 2-0 against Atlanta – outscoring Atlanta 71-40 in those games).
2)
Atlanta
2012
Record: 13-3; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 12-4
Confidence
in Pick: 50%
Losses:
John Abraham, Michael Turner, Dunta Robinson, Tyson Clabo
Pickups:
Steven Jackson, Osi Umenyiora, Desmond Trufant
Reasons
for Optimism:
Julio
Jones – At 6’3” 220lbs, Jones is a big and physical receiver and one of the
top 5 WRs in the league. In his 2 years in the league, Jones has 133 catches,
2,157 yards and 18 TDs, yet, in terms of yards and catches, was only #2 on his
own team. Jones and White make up the most dynamic WR duo in the game right
now.
Tony
Gonzalez – If the most dynamic WR duo wasn’t enough, the Falcons also
feature the best TE in NFL history (yards, receptions and TDs). Tony Gonzalez
is the active leader in receptions, yards and receiving TDs…not for TEs, for
all players. The scary part is he doesn’t show any sign of slowing down. In
2012, at age 36, Gonzalez had 93 catches, 930 yards and 10 TDS. The guy is a
physical wonder.
The
Passing Attack as a Whole – I am not a huge Matt Ryan fan, but he is good
and when you give him Jones, White and Gonzalez, he is really good. With a
4,700+ yard QB, 3 players with 79+ catches and 930+ yards, this passing attack
is impossible to shut down. In 2013, they add a good receiving back in Jackson (407
career receptions) to make things even more difficult for defenses.
Steven
Jackson – In 2012 the Falcons had the #6 passing offense, but just the 29th
ranked rush offense. The Falcons as a team rushed for 1,397 yards. So, they
went out and added the active leader in rushing yards. Jackson, for his career,
averages 1,126 yards by himself. If
covering Jones, White and Gonzalez wasn’t enough, now teams have to worry about
Jackson.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Steven
Jackson – I love Steven Jackson and think he is (and has been), one of the
best “Pure RBs” ever. With that said, RBs seem to hit a wall at 30…which as of
July 22nd, is exactly Jackson’s age. To say he has some mileage on
his tires would be an understatement. Jackson is the NFL’s active leader in
rushing yards (10,135) and carries (2,395 – 400+ more than the next RB…Willis
McGahee) and also has 407 career receptions as well (3,324 yards). Most of
which was done on artificial surfaces. Jackson has averted the major injury in
his career and despite nagging injuries, has played at least 15 games in each
of the last 4 seasons. However, at some point, this workload will catch up with
him - Atlanta is hoping it is not 2013. History says they are flirting with
Father Time.
Mike
Smith – He is a great regular season coach, but for a guy with a .700
career winning percentage in the regular season, his 1-4 postseason record is
inexcusable (especially given the fact that he has been the #1 overall seed 2
times). His only win came thanks to a miraculous comeback (aided by an opposing
coach’s brain cramp – I’m looking at you Pete Carroll). Success is gauged by
postseason success, so by that standard, Smith’s teams have underperformed
greatly.
The
Defense – A half-way decent defense would make this team terrifying. They
don’t have it. In 2012, the Falcons visited stadiums around the NFL with the 24th
overall defense (in yards) and 23rd in passing. Not good when you
are in a division with Drew Brees, Sean Payton, Cam Newton, Doug Martin, etc. In
fact, the Falcons defense got weaker in 2013. They swapped a good veteran CB
(Dunta Robinson) for a rookie CB (Desmond Trufant), and they replaced Abraham
(10 sacks) and with Umenyiora (6 sacks).
Overall:
On paper, I love the Falcons. However, I
still do not trust Matt Ryan nor Mike Smith in big games. Ryan’s comeback
against Seattle in 2012 was amazing and maybe it will spark a change going
forward. But lest we not forget, going into that game, Ryan’s postseason record
was 0-3 with 3 TDs, 4 INTs and 0 playoff games with 200+ yards. If not for
Seattle’s brain cramp in the last 31 seconds of the Divisional round in 2012,
we would be discussing a Coach and QB with .700+ regular season winning
percentages and 0-4 playoff records (0-2 as the #1 overall seed)! As it stands,
they are 1-4 and 1-2 at home as the #1 seed.
3)
Tampa Bay
2012
Record: 7-9; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 8-8
Confidence
in Pick: 25%
Losses:
LeGarrette Blount,
Pickups:
Darrelle Revis, Dashon Goldson, Brian Leonard, Mike Glennon
Reasons
for Optimism:
Doug
Martin – With his running style and ability to catch out of the backfield,
I loved this guy coming out of Boise State (and really wanted the Bengals to
draft him). After his huge rookie season, it is easy to see why. With 1,454
rushing yards, 1,926 all-purpose yards, and 12 TDS, there is a lot to like
about this 2nd year player.
The
Offense – You would most likely be surprised to find out that the Bucs were
a top 10 offense (9th in total yards) and averaged 24.3 ppg (I was
as well). This is a team that in 2012 had a 4,000+ yard QB, a 1,400+ yard RB,
and was 4 yards shy of having two 1,000 yard WRs (Jackson 1,384; Williams 996).
Add the “First Down Machine” (aka Brian Leonard) and this is a good offense.
Josh Freeman – Boy how the NFL has changed. The guy is 6’6”, 240lbs, mobile, and had 4,000+ yards and 27 TDs in 2012, yet the Bucs take a high round QB (Mike Glennon) and all anyone can talk about is how long can he keep his starting job. Apparently 4,000 yard 27 TD seasons don’t get you what they used to! Freeman has the tools to be a very good QB. Freeman’s issues are completion percentage (54.8% in 2012 – not acceptable in a league where 60% is the minimum) and INTs (17- manageable, but you would like to see less). If Freeman can raise his completion percentage a little and cut a few INTs out, this could be a very dangerous offense (and team).
The Addition of Darrelle Revis and Dashon
Goldson to the Bucs had the 32nd ranked pass defense should help,
even if Revis is not the same Revis of years past. He and Goldson (combined
with Mark Barron), should be a pretty solid secondary in a division where
secondary defense is a must.
Run
Defense – The Bucs were the #1 ranked rushing defense in 2012. That may be
a result of teams not feeling the need to run on a team that is ranked 32nd
in pass defense, but nonetheless, #1 is #1.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Greg
Schiano – I was not a huge fan of the hire in 2012 and am still a little
iffy on it. Until he proves otherwise, I have him as a negative for this team.
The
Drafting of Mike Glennon – What was the point? This team needed help on the
defense more than another QB.
2012
Pass Defense – Rarely do you see a team 1st in one defensive
category (rushing) and dead last in the other (passing), but that is exactly
what the Bucs were in 2012. However, they get Adrian Clayborn back from a knee
injury at RDE (7.5 sacks in 2011), and they added Revis and Goldson. This unit
is unproven, hence why they are in this category, but on paper, they look like
they could be good.
They
Play in the NFC South – Any other division and I may pick this team as a
wild card. I just don’t see them beating out the Falcons and Saints (but I
wouldn’t be one bit shocked if they did).
Overall:
High on talent, low on history of success.
Originally I had them at 6-10 and 4th place in this division until I
realized Josh Freeman threw for 27 TDs last year. That surprised me and cleared
up one of my initial concerns. The more and more I look at this team, the more
and more I like them. The biggest thing going against this team is the division
the play in.
4)
Carolina
2012
Record: 7-9; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 5-11
Confidence
in Pick: 20%
Losses:
Chris Gamble,
Pickups:
Star Lotulelei, Ted Ginn Jr., Domenik Henson
Reasons
for Optimism:
Cam
Newton’s “Potential” – If you were to design the perfect athlete, it would
look a lot like Cam Newton. 6’5”, 245 lbs, chiseled from stone and lightning
fast. He has had an amazing start to his NFL career, much better than anyone
(myself included) could have imagined. With 7,920 passing yards, 40 passing
TDs, 1,447 rushing yards, 22 running TDs, and a 85.3 rating in his 2 years in
the league, I believe he is the hardest player in the league to account for.
This team will go where Cam takes them.
Luke
Kuechly – The guy is a stud. He lead the NFL (as a rookie) with 164 tackles
and added 11 tackles for a loss. The second year player - from St. Xavier high
school btw - is the heart and soul of this defense.
Running
Attack – Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams each are top 10-15 RBs in
the NFL. Unfortunately for them, they both play for the Panthers and the
Panthers seem not to know how to use either, let alone both. With Newton and
these two, the Panthers could (and should), have the most unstoppable running
attack around. They don’t. If the Panthers can figure out how to use
both/either, I like this aspect of the team. **NOTE – the recent injury of
Stewart could actually help because it will force the Panthers to use a main
back.
Steve
Smith – He is small and 34, but he still puts up huge numbers and remains
one of the toughest guys to cover. My concern is his ability to keep it up
entering his 13 season.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Cam
Newton – Confused? Here is my deal with Newton: despite my praise above, I
still do not trust him. I don’t trust his accuracy (58.9%), I don’t trust his
decision making (37 turnovers in 2 years) and I don’t trust his leadership
ability (has been called into question multiple times). This is a quarterback
league, and to succeed, you need a QB that is accurate, smart, trustworthy and
team oriented. I have yet to see Newton display any of these characteristics.
Newton seems to care more about the spotlight (Superman) than the winning.
Despite his super hero like numbers, the only number that matters is his
record…13-19.
Defense
– I like Kuechly. I like the drafting of Lotulelei. And I like that they get
Jon Beason back. However, who knows what can be expected of Beason, and despite
a 10th ranked defense (in terms of yards), the Panthers gave up the
18th most points (22.7/game) and had only 23 takeaways (better than
only 13 teams).
Ron
Rivera – Not impressed with him yet. Given the talent he has (Newton,
Smith, Williams, Stewart), I am very unimpressed with a 13-19 record.
Overall:
The Panthers (mainly on the Newton potential)
are a hot pick in 2013, but I just don’t buy it. In a QB driven league, I
default to the better QBs: Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are better QBs than Cam
Newton. The Panthers are a 3rd place team (at best) in this
division.
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