With both the Steelers and the Bengals coming off
disappointing week 1 losses, both teams come into Monday night looking to avoid
the dreaded 0-2 start. According to NFL.com, since the playoffs expanded to 12
teams in 1990, only 11.6% of teams that have started 0-2 have gone on to make
the playoffs. After Monday night, one of these two teams will be fighting to
overcome that stat.
When the Steelers
Run the Ball:
Not much. In week 1, Steelers RBs with 2 ACLs ran 7 times
for 8 yards (Redman). While I don’t think they can possibly suck that bad in
week 2, the Bengals defense (especially the DL) is far better than the Titans
defense that shut the Steelers down in week 1.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Steelers
Throw the Ball:
Look for quick passes. With a non-existent running attack
and a line that gave up 5 sacks in week 1, Ben is not likely to have much time
to throw (the Steelers longest pass in week 1 went for just 22 yards). Combined
with the lack of a true #1, the Steelers are likely to try lots of short
patterns to try and get the ball out of Roethlisbergers hands quicker and
negate the Bengals pass rush. The problem is, the quick passes are not Ben’s
strength. Ben’s strength is extending the play and finding the weak spot in the
defense. Look for the Bengals to crowd the line of scrimmage and play tight on
the receivers to make the quick throws as tough as possible.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
The Steelers still have a respectable run defense, though
not as good as it was with Hampton, Harrison and Foote. The Titans gained 112
yards on the ground in week 1, but it took them 42 carries to get there (2.7
ypc). Not a great sign for a Bengals team that did not have much success on the
ground in week 1 (21 for 63). However, unlike the Titans, the Bengals have a
passing game that the Steelers must respect and should open holes for the run
game. The key will be more touches for Giovanni Bernard. Unlike BJGE, Bernard
had success against the Bears, 4 carries for 22 yards (5.5 ypc) and that didn’t
include his 14 yard run which was taken back. Look for the Bengals to use more
of an unconventional running game – short passes and draws to Bernard – along
with the passing game to soften the Steelers and then use BJGE to wear them
down and kill the clock.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
The Steelers lack the personnel to cover Green, Eifert and
Gresham and the Bengals know that. Expect to see a lot of 2 TE sets with
Bernard in the backfield – doing so will leave Green doubled, Gresham and
Eifert one-on-one with a safety or linebacker, and will allow Bernard to come
out of the backfield covered by a LB. Whoever is covered by a LB will be option
#1 and 1a. They can’t afford to take the safety help off Green, and if they do,
Green will be the option.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaches:
What Tomlin does, or does not do will likely have little
bearing on the game. My concern is Lewis in a Primetime game. Expect Lewis to
use his challenges early and in poor situations. Expect Lewis to enter halftime
with 2 timeouts which he will be shocked to find out cannot be carried over to
the second half. Every Bengals fan alive just hopes and prays these will not be
large enough gaffes to cost the Bengals the game.
Advantage: Steelers
Key to the Game:
The Steelers run game. They don’t need a 100 yard rusher,
but if they can be effective enough to make the Bengals respect the run, it
will negate some of the Bengals pass rush and aggressive CB play. As terrible
as the Steeler RB situation looks, just remember, the Steelers new pick up
(Jonathan Dwyer) rushed for 122 yards on just 17 carries on this same Bengals
team last year in week 7 – 1/5 of his total yards (623) in 2012. Again, on
paper the Bengals should be able to make the Steelers one dimensional, but that
was the case in 2012 as well and that did not happen. Monday, I think Zimmer
redeems himself and draws up a game plan that shuts down the Steelers and
creates advantageous field position for the offense.
Prediction:
History tells me this game will be close. But, history will
not be dressing for this game. I just don’t see two teams close enough in
talent for this game to be close. Call it a homer pick, call it wishful
thinking, call it what you want, but I think the Bengals finally become the “Embarrasser”
and not the “Embarrassee” on a national televised game – and finally deal the
Steelers an embarrassing nationally televised loss at the hands of the former
league laughing stock.
Bengals 31, Steelers 13
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