Possibly the weakest division in an overall weak AFC. The
Dolphins are a hot pick, I just don’t see it. Even the Patriots of 2013 are not
the Patriots of year’s past. In any other division, I would have the Patriots
finishing 2nd at best. There are a lot of question marks in the AFC
East: Can Brady and Belichick continue their dominance with an entirely new
group of receivers? Are the Dolphins actually contenders, or just big offseason
spenders? Can the Bills get anything from anyone not named Spiller? Can the
Jets win a game?
1)
New England
2012
Record: 12-4; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 12-4
Confidence
in Pick: 75%
Losses:
Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Loyd, Deion Branch
Pickups:
Adrian Wilson, Tim Tebow
Reasons
for Optimism:
Tom
Brady – I don’t have to explain anything here. Just enjoy the numbers:
3-Time Super Bowl winner, 5 Super Bowl appearances, 44,806 yards (9th all-time), 334
TDs (5th all-time), 96.6 passer rating (3rd all-time),
63.7% completion percentage (9th all-time), 26 4th
Quarter comebacks (T-9th all-time; 3 in the playoffs), 37 game
winning drives (5th all-time; 6 in the playoffs), single season TD
record holder (50), .777 career winning percentage (136-39), 0 losing seasons,
8 of 11 seasons of 11+ wins, 10 of 11 seasons with 10+ wins and 8 Pro Bowls…and
for most of his career, he never had a true #1 WR.
Bill
Belichick – Spy Gate or no Spy Gate, he is clearly the best coach of his
time, maybe of all-time. A career winning percentage of .649 and a .726 winning
percentage in NE. 5 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Super Bowl wins. With Brady and
Belichick, the Patriots enter every game with the advantage.
Revamped
Running Attack – Who would’ve thunk it, the Patriots had a running game in
2012 to complement the passing attack. The emergence of Steven Ridley (1,263
yards) in 2012 made the NE offense even more dangerous. With the losses in the
passing game, the Patriots run game will be very important in 2013.
Turnovers
– 1st in the NFL in Turnover Differential (+25) and 2nd
in the NFL with 41 turnovers.
They
Play in the AFC East – This division is bad and despite the Patriots losses
in 2012, I don’t see anyone even challenging them for the division. The
Patriots should have the division locked up by week 10.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Receiving
Options – I like Amendola, Edelman and the potential of Thompkins, but they
don’t make up for Welker and Hernandez. While Brady makes his receivers, make
no mistake about it, he is going to have some growing pains in 2013. The
Patriots lost 4 of their top 5 receivers from 2012 (Welker, Loyd, Hernandez,
Woodhead) and the only player that remains (Gronk), may not start the season
because of offseason surgeries.
Rob
Gronkowski – Their best weapons has had 4 surgeries on his forearm and 5
surgeries in the past year. If he isn’t healthy, that is big trouble for this
offense.
Danny
Amendola – People like to compare him to Wes Welker because he is small and
white – that is about where the comparison should end. In his 6 years in NE,
Welker averaged 112 catches per year,
1,243 yards, 6.17 TDs and 15.5 games. Speaking of injuries, Amendola has played
16 games once. In 4 years in the league, Amendola has averaged only 10.5 games
per year, has played 16 games just once and has never surpassed 85 catches nor
700 yards. For his career, Amendola
has 7 TDs, 196 catches and 1,726 yards....his career numbers are in line with
Welkers yearly averages! If he stays healthy, I think Amendola could have a big
year…IF he can stay healthy.
Defense
– Despite the impressive turnover numbers, this was a poor defense in 2012. 25th
overall and 29th against the pass. This defense has talent (Wilfolk,
Kelly, Jones, Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Talib, Dennard, etc), they just need to
play to their talent level.
Overall:
This is likely Belichick and Brady’s worst
offensive team in their NE tenure. Lucky for them, they play in a weak division
and an extremely weak AFC in 2013. I think they win the division easily, but
this is not a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
2)
Miami
2012
Record: 7-9; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 9-7
Confidence
in Pick: 20%
Losses:
Reggie Bush, Jake Long, Dustin Keller (ACL), Karlos Dansby, Davone Bess
Pickups:
Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, Philip Wheeler, Brent Grimes, Dion Jordan
Reasons
for Optimism:
Ryan
Tannehill – In only his 3rd year playing QB (he was a WR his
first two years in college), Tannehill had a respectable rookie campaign (3,294
yards, 13 TDs and 7 wins). If you believe in his potential, he has a lot of
room for growth and a lot of promise.
Lamar
Miller – He is a good and promising young back, and while Miller is a step
down from Reggie Bush, I like Miller and think he will have a good year.
Cameron
Wake – This guy is a stud. 15.0 sacks in 2012 and now he will be paired
with Dion Jordan. When these two are on the field together, it could be very
exciting to watch…unless you are the opposing QB.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Ryan
Tannehill – I don’t buy into Tannehill. Ask most people if he had a good
year, and they would say yes. I would say any time you throw more INTs than TDs
it was not a good year (13/12). In fact, Tannehill turned the ball over 22
times! To me, Tannehill is that QB that scouts tell themselves can be great
because he has “all the physical tools” and “can make all the throws.” At 6’4”
222 lbs with a good arm and good athleticism, it is easy to see why they like
him. However, I see a guy that lacks the years of experience which are so
valuable (3 years of QB experience) and has questionable accuracy 58.3% - he is
also missing 3 of his top 4 receivers from 2012 (Bess, Fasano, Bush). I didn’t
like this pick by the Dolphins and I believe the Dolphins will be looking for a
new QB within the next 3 years.
Offensive
Line – The line gave up 37 sacks last year…then lost a top LT (Jake Long)
via free agency and moved a poor RT (Jonathan Martin) to LT to replace him.
While Long had a down year, he is still a very good LT and Martin sucked on
Tannehill’s front side, now he guards his blind side. Tough to make any throws
from your back.
Mike
Wallace – Is there a more overrated and over paid WR? 64 catches and 836
yards gets you $60 million? Wow. Davone Bess (the guy he is essentially
replacing) had 61 catches for 778 yards and Cleveland got him for 3 years $11.5
million. I don’t like this signing for a lot of reasons: 1) He is being paid as
a top 5 WR but is not even a #1 – 6’0” 195 lbs and never had 75 catches – he
wasn’t even the top option on the Steelers last year (Brown); 2) He has speed,
but he has questionable hands – ask Steelers fans about this; 3) He had 836
yards with Roethlisberger as his QB – unless you think Tannehill is better than
Roethlisberger, how do these numbers improve?; 4) His best attribute is the
deep threat, yet, in order to throw the deep ball the QB has to have time in
the pocket and last year Miami gave up 37 sacks; 5) He has maturity issues and
is a questionable locker room guy – not a good thing for a young QB to have to
deal with.
Loss
of Leadership – The loss of Long, Bush and Karlos Dansby (leading tackler)
is big from a talent perspective, but huge from a leadership perspective.
Joe
Philbin – I am not impressed with him as a coach or a leader. If you saw
any of the 2012 Hard Knocks, you probably would agree.
The
Defense (not named Cameron Wake) – They were 21st overall and 27th
against the pass and they got rid of their leading tackler and leader in general.
I don’t like the signing or Ellerbe or Wheeler.
Management
– Ireland is trying to save his job by spending wildly. When has that ever
worked? Remember the Haynesworth Redskins team? Or Philadelphia’s “Dream Team?”
The team that “wins” the offseason rarely carries that success over to the
field. Ireland has gambled big time on this team and I believe gambled poorly.
He structured all the deals for low 2013 cap hits which balloon in the
following years – i.e. Wallace counts for just $3.25 million against the 2013
cap – that number is $17.25 million in 2014! Think about this: in 2013,
Wallace, Hartline, Moore, Ellerbe and Wheeler count just $12.725 million
against the cap (about 10%) – in2014, those 5 will count $43.275 million
against their cap (more than 33%).
Overall:
This team is a hot pick amongst “experts”
to have a good year and possibly even challenge for the AFC East title. If you
can’t tell, I am not buying in. I think 7 wins is the ceiling for this team. I
don’t like the QB, don’t like the O-Line, don’t like the coach, don’t like the
management or vision, and don’t like the defense. If not for the injuries to
the Bills QBs, the Bills might have a shot at 2nd in the East.
3)
Buffalo Bills
2012
Record: 6-10; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 5-11
Confidence
in Pick: 35%
Losses:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Barnett, George Wilson, David Nelson, Donald Jones, Chan
Gailey
Pickups:
Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel, Manny Lawson, Alan Branch, Doug Marrone
Reasons
for Optimism:
CJ
Spiller – Spiller had one of the most under the radar seasons in 2012.
1,244 yards rushing and 43 catches for 459 yards. Spiller is true running back
with the hands and route running ability of a true receiver and he should see
the bulk of the Buffalo offense run through him.
EJ
Manuel – I don’t like the word “Potential,” but it is a reason for
optimism, and EJ Manuel has it. He is 6’4”, 237 lbs, has a career 66.8%
completion percentage, and while running is not a big part of his game (825
rushing yards in college), he is mobile enough to cause a defense problems.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
EJ
Manuel – Despite his potential, I did not like this pick and believe it was
one of the biggest 1st round reaches in recent memory. Add on top of
that a knee injury, and this just smells of bust.
A Guy
Named Jeff Tuel – There is a rule in the NFL: Any time you start a QB named
Jeff Tuel, you are in trouble. Especially if said QB is an undrafted rookie.
Doug
Marrone – I was not a fan of this
hire and am quite perplexed at how a guy with a .500 record (25-25), in one of
the weakest college football conferences (the conference formally known as the
Big East), off an 8-5 record and 1 year removed from a 5-7 record (1-6 in the
Big East; T-7th), manages to get an NFL job. Then, he ties his
coaching career to EJ Manuel? Facing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are a lot
different than facing the likes of UCF etc.
Receivers
– I don’t like Stevie Johnson, his hands, or his attitude (this week Johnson
said the Patriots can’t stop him – wow). They lost David Nelson and Donald
Jones. If starting EJ Manuel and Jeff Tuel isn’t bad enough, they are going to
be throwing a WR with a big mouth and bad hands (Johnson) and another WR that
is 5’11”, 188 lbs, and has a grand total of 31 total NFL catches.
Defense
– When you can’t stop the run (31st against rush) and you give up a
lot of points (26th in points - 27.2/g), that is a recipe for
disaster. It makes you wonder why 3 of their first 4 draft picks were offense.
I don’t see Lawson or Branch improving these numbers much.
Ralph
Wilson – Is there a worse owner in sports? A couple arguments could be
made, but the Bills have essentially been irrelevant for 20+ years (ever since
the 4 straight runner-ups).
Overall:
I love Spiller. I really don’t like much
else. If Manuel plays well (big if), the Bills could challenge make a run
toward 7 wins and challenge the Dolphins for 2nd place. However, I
don’t see any scenario that has this team as anything but fans come playoff
time.
4)
NY Jets
2012
Record: 6-10; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 3-13
Confidence
in Pick: 50%
Losses:
Tim Tebow, Darelle Revis, Calvin Pace, Bart Scott, Jason Smith, Eric Smith,
Mike Tannenbaum, Marty Mornhinweg
Pickups:
Geno Smith, Dee Milliner, Dawan Landry, Willie Colon, Mike Godson, Kellen
Winslow
Reasons
for Optimism:
They
Have Cool Uniforms - Really, that is it.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Everything
Else – Is there a bigger circus around? Honestly, it is like the Ringling
Brothers without the animals and clowns. If the Ringling Brothers started a
football team, they would wear Jets jerseys…and may have just as good of a
chance to compete. Rex Ryan is an entertaining, but is a caricature and a
terrible head coach. Mark Sanchez was always a poor QB with confidence. Now he
is a poor QB with no confidence and a dirty moustache. Geno Smith was a
terrible pick and is a QB that will set a franchise back. Santonio Holmes is
not a #1 WR and has a bad attitude on top of that. The defense may be
aggressive enough to keep them from being blown out, but Milliner and Landry
will not fill the holes left in the offseason.
Overall:
This is a really bad team that has no
leadership, no management, no ability to deal with adversity and works in the
biggest market in the world. Good luck. If it weren’t for the AFC being so bad
this year as a whole, I would struggle to give this team more than 2 wins. I
will be shocked if Rex Ryan ends the year with the Jets. He and his Sanchez
tattoo are likely to be in a TV studio next year, not on a sideline.
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