Count this as my “Shocker” division. I really like 3 of the
4 teams (Arizona, Seattle, SF) and could see any of the 3 winning the division
and making noise in the playoffs. Can Palmer, Fitzgerald and Loyd bring back
memories of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin? Can Russell Wilson repeat his
impressive 2012 run? Can Kaepernick repeat his? And can the 49ers overcome the
“Runner-Up Curse?” Can Sam Bradford finally earn his contract?
1)
Arizona
2012
Record: 5-11; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 11-5
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses: Kevin Kolb, Beanie Wells, Kerry Rhodes, Adrian Wilson,
Early Doucet, John Skelton, William Gay, Quentin Groves, Greg Toler, Ken
Whisenhunt
Pickups: Carson Palmer, Rashard Mendenhall, Karlos Dansby, John
Abraham, Eric Winston, Levi Brown (back from injury), Matt Shaughnessy, Honey
Badger, Alex Okafor, Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor, Bruce Arians,
Reasons for Optimism:
Overall Talent – Laugh all you want, but the Cardinals have talent
(especially on offense). The offense has 4 top 5 picks (Brown, Cooper, Palmer,
Fitzgerald – 5 if you count Patrick Peterson playing on offense) and 6 top 23
(Floyd and Mendenhall) and this season they added one of the best RT’s in the
game, Eric Winston.
Carson Palmer – I can hear my fellow Bengals fans already, but,
like it or not, Palmer is still a good QB. Would I want him on my team? No. Do
I trust him to lead a team to a championship? No. Do I trust he won’t quit on
his teammates in AZ like he did in Oakland and Cincinnati? Again, no. However,
the guy can, and will, put up numbers. In 2012, throwing to a bunch of poor
excuses for NFL receivers, having no running game, and a lackluster OL, he
still had 4,000+ yards, 22 TDs, 61.1% CMP, and a 85.3 Rating. Yes he had 14
picks (and his staple of pick 6’s) and got a lot of garbage time numbers, but
he is now teamed up with an offensive minded coach and surrounded by the most
talented group of his career (yes, better than the 2005 Bengals weapons). Give
Palmer Fitzgerald (6’3” 218lbs), Floyd (6’2” 220lbs), Roberts (slot),
Mendenhall, Ellington (change of pace back) and Housler (6’5” 250lbs) and those
numbers likely translate to another 4,000+ yards and 25+ TDs. Palmer alone will
provide 3 additional wins to a team that went 5-11 last year.
Larry Fitzgerald – He may be the best WR in the game right now, he
just hasn’t had a QB since Kurt Warner retired. No position is sports is as
dependent upon someone else than WR. With Palmer, a legit #2 threat (Floyd),
and a running game (Mendenhall), Fitzgerald will be back to his old dominant
self.
Offensive Weapons – My personal thoughts of Mendenhall aside, the
guy is a solid RB and is an instant upgrade from Wells. Fitzgerald is
Fitzgerald. Floyd is a candidate for a breakout season and could be the best #2
WR in the NFL. Andre Roberts had a solid 2012 (considering his QBs) with 64
catches for 759 yds and 5 TDs. At 5’11” 195lbs, he will be a solid option in
the slot. Rob Housler (TE) has the ability to be a breakout player in 2013 and
has Fitzgerald comparing
him to the likes of Gates, Graham, and Vernon Davis. At 6’5”, 250 lbs, and apparently 4.4 speed,
Housler will get single covered and could be a great emergency option for
Palmer. Talk is that Peterson, one of the league’s most explosive players, will
also take snaps on offense in 2013 which would make this squad all the more
dynamic. The Cardinals simply have offensive weapons that the other NFC West
teams do not.
Improved OL – This was one of the worst O-lines for the first 8
games in 2012 (31 sacks, 17 hits, and 102 QB hurries). However, in the last 8,
they were one of the best (15 sacks, 18 hits, and 31 hurries). In 2013, they
picked up one of the best RT’s in the NFL (Winston), get back a former 1st
round pick at LT (Brown), and add the best LG in the draft (Cooper – though it
sounds like Cooper is now out for the year). Combined with a new zone blocking
scheme, this could be a solid group in 2013, meaning big holes for Mendenhall
and plenty of time for Palmer.
Respectable Defense – Not a defense that can carry a team, but this
was a top 12 defense in 2012 (5th vs the pass; 28th vs
the rush; and 17th in PPG) despite having an offense ranked last in
the NFC in yards (4,209), 2nd last in Pts/g (15.6), and 2nd
last in turnovers (34). This was a defense that was on the field, and in the
hole, a lot in 2012. All things considered, they held their own and then some.
This defense, led by Patrick Peterson’s 7 picks, was actually 4th in
the NFL with an impressive 33 turnovers. With Docket, Washington, Peterson, and
the addition of Dansby, this team has some play makers on a defense which
should be better simply based on being on the field less and having an offense capable
of putting up some points in 2013. Despite rarely having a lead in 2012, the
Cardinals still managed to finish 11th in team sacks as well.
Impact Rookies – The
Cardinals had a great draft. Cooper in Round 1 will start opening day. Honey
Badger was a steal and word out of camp is that he has looked like the best
player in camp. The Cardinals also picked up two potential impact RB’s in Andre
Ellington and Stepfan Taylor, and added a possible starter in Alex Okafor.
Reasons to be Cautious:
Palmer - As much as Palmer can be an improvement, he is also prone
to untimely picks, most notably, pick 6’s. That can be a recipe for disaster in
a division that San Fran and Seattle call home.
NFC West – The NFC West may be the best division in the NFL, so if
the Cardinals are going to go worst to first (as I am predicting), they will
need to earn it.
O-Line – As much as this line looks improved on paper, “on paper”
means nothing if they cannot gel as a unit. Plus, this prediction was made
prior to Cooper’s injury (but I am still sticking with my pick). If they cannot
gel, that could spell bad things for Palmer and the offense.
Potential – One of the most dangerous yet intoxicating words in all
of sports. Floyd, Housler, Palmer, Mendenhall, Honey Badger, etc. all have
potential to improve this team. However, every one of them must either prove
themselves for the first time, or reprove themselves in a new situation.
Home Field Advantage…or Lack Thereof – Phoenix is a large
transplant city and not exactly full of a lot of passionate fans. Therefore,
University of Phoenix Stadium can often be a home (or neutral site) game for
the Cardinals opponents.
Overall:
NFC West Champions – Call me crazy, but I
look at this team and see the most talented and complete team in the division.
Your 2013 shocker pick – Cardinals win the NFC West. You read it here first!
2)
Seattle
2012
Record: 11-5
2013
Prediction: 9-7
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Percy Harvin (lost before he even was technically there), Chris Clemons (torn
acl-may return), Defensive Coordinator (Gus Bradley – Jax)
Pickups:
Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams, Antoine Winfield,
Christine Michael
Reasons
for Optimism:
Russell
Wilson – I still think he takes a small step back in 2013, but I like this
kid. He is not your prototypical QB in terms of size, but what he lacks in
size, he makes up for in heart and determination. I am a big Wilson fan and
think he is a good QB and will be a good QB for a long time in this league, I
just think a ton of things seemed to break his way last year in order for him
to lead this team to 11-5 (see game vs GB) - things I don’t see being repeated
in 2013.
Marshawn Lynch – Beast Mode is a beast and the key
to keeping pressure off Wilson. If Lynch can put together a year in 2013 like
he did in 2012 (1,590 yards and 11 TDs), this offense should be just fine.
The
Defense – This was a smothering defense in2012. Top 10 in every significant
category: 4th in yards, 6th in Passing, 10th
in rushing, 1st in PPG and T-5th in takeaways (31) and
turnover differential (+13).
The
12th Man – From all accounts, the loudest stadium in all of the
NFL is Seattle’s Century Link Field. And it seems to have an effect. In 2012,
the Seahawks were 8-0 at home including wins over Green Bay*, New England,
Dallas, Minnesota, a 58-0 win over the Cardinals and a 42-13 drubbing of the
NFC Champion 49ers.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Injuries
– As good as the Seahawks defense was in 2012, they will start the season
without Bruce Irvin (4 game substance abuse suspension) and who knows when
Chris Clemons will come back from a torn ACL in January, but it won’t be to
start the season. In all likelihood, the Seahawks will be without 19.5 of their
36.0 sacks from 2012 (11.5 Clemons, 8.0 Irvin) for the first 4 games. And while
the Seahawks were 11-5 without Harvin last year, they sure could use him. The
Seahawks have no timetable on his return, but hip surgery for a guy that relies
on speed and agility is a very bad thing. Whether Harvin plays or not in 2013,
it is safe to say he will not be effective in 2013.
Receivers
– Seattle did not have a single WR (or TE) with 750 yards. Hence why they
picked up Harvin, and hence why Harvin’s injury is so devastating.
Road
Record – As impressive as their home record was, the Seahawks were a woeful
2-6 on the road, including losses to 4 below .500 teams (4-12 Lions, 5-11
Cardinals, 7-9 Dolphins and 7-8-1 Rams).
Marshawn
Lynch’s Running Style – This is a love/hate relationship. I love his
violent running style, but at 27 years old, 7 years in the league, and running
in the physical NFC West, it is only a matter of time until he breaks down. I
hope he does not, but common sense says he will (at some point).
Pete
Carroll – See playoff loss vs Atlanta
Overall:
I think this is a good team, but I see them
taking a step back to 9-7. In reality, this is only 1 game because they were
really 10-6 last year if not for the replacement ref debacle in the GB game.
Given the injuries/suspensions (Clemons, Irvin, Harvin), what should be a
tougher division and tougher schedule, I think only dropping 1 game off 2012’s
pace is reasonable.
3)
San Francisco
2012
Record: 11-4-1; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 9-7
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Dashon Goldson, Michael Crabtree (injury), Micheal Jenkins, Brandon Jacobs,
Alex Smith, Chris Culliver (injury)
Pickups:
Anquan Boldin, Jon Baldwin, Phil Dawson, Nnamdi Asomugha, Glen Dorsey, Eric Reid
Reasons
for Optimism:
John
Harbaugh – Rarely do you see a coach come in and make such an immediate
impact in the NFL like Harbaugh has. Since taking over the 49ers in 2011 - in
what was thought to be a rebuilding project - Harbaugh has led the 49ers to a
24-7-1 record, 2 NFC Championship appearances and 1 Super Bowl appearance. Not
bad.
Colin
Kaepernick – Kaepernick, somewhat like his coach, took the NFL by storm.
When Smith went down in week 8, Kaepernick stepped in and stole the job, going
5-2-1, 1,814 yards, 10 TDs, 415 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs. His raw
athletic ability and passing effectiveness makes him a nightmare for defenses
to game plan against.
The
Defense – Even with the losses of Goldson, this is still a stout defense
that can get after the quarterback. Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks and
Patrick Willis make up one of the toughest front sevens in the league and their
ability to get to the QB should be able to hide some of the issues in the
secondary.
Frank
Gore – One of the most underrated RBs of the last 10 years. He is the
definition of a workhorse RB that just brings his lunch pale and goes to work.
He has had one hell of a career, made even more impressive by the fact that he
has had his knees reconstructed 3 times. Despite his age and workload, Gore has
not shown signs of slowing down.
Offensive
Line – Like most good O-Lines, they pretty much go unnoticed. However, this
dominant line is the reason Gore produces like he does and is the reason
Kaepernick can get outside of the pocket and run like he does.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Jim
Harbaugh – The 49ers quick and amazing turnaround are likely a direct
result of Harbaugh’s high intensity, but that sort of intensity can wear on
players in the long run (especially if the team is not winning). I am not
saying that has or will happen with this
team, but it does have the potential to happen if things don’t go as well as
they have in Harbaugh’s first 2 seasons.
Colin
Kaepernick – I love his athletic ability, but I still have questions about
his passing and leadership abilities (the 2 biggest questions you don’t want to
have about a QB). Also, the league was not prepared for Kaepernick in 2012. Now
with a year for defensive coordinators to evaluate tape, it will be interesting
to see if Kaepernick takes a step back (I think he will). My other concern with
Kaepernick are his fumbles (9 in 8 games!) and ability to stay healthy (because
of how much he runs). If Kaepernick goes down, the 49ers could be in trouble.
Receivers
– One of the reasons I believe Kaepernick will take a step back is because he
lost his #1 receiver. Kaepernick and Crabtree seemed to have great chemistry in
2012 and Crabtree finally looked like a legit #1 WR. Unfortunately for the
49ers, Kaepernick and Vernon Davis never did develop that chemistry, and while
Boldin and Baldwin can offset some of Crabtree’s loss, neither have spent much
time in this system and neither are a #1 WR.
Secondary
– The losses in the secondary (Goldson and Culliver), combined with what should
be improved passing attacks in Arizona, Saint Louis and Seattle, could be
troublesome. Especially for the 49ers weak safety unit (Donte Whitner and a
rookie).
Running
Back Situation – Despite the praise I heaped on Gore, he is 30 and sporting
knees which have been rebuilt 3 times. At some point, he is going to break
down, and while I like LaMichael James as a change of pace back, I don’t like
him as a lead back.
Super
Bowl Runner-Up Curse – Whether you buy into the “Curse” of the Super Bowl
runner-up or not, the fact remains that the team who loses the Super Bowl often
times follows up their Super Bowl loss with a very disappointing season. In
fact, 7 of the last 11 have missed the playoffs the following year, only 1
(2006 Seahawks) has won a playoff game the following year, and the last time a
Super Bowl runner-up won the Super Bowl the following year? The 1972 Dolphins.
Overall:
This pick is likely a shocker to most, but
I see the 49ers taking a step backwards and becoming the 8th Super
Bowl runner-up in the last 12 years not to make the playoffs the following
year. Here’s why: I believe that with a year to evaluate tape on Kaepernick,
defenses will adjust to him and cause at least a 1 game regression; the loss of
Crabtree will cost the team 1 win; the runner-up curse and tougher schedule
will account for .5-1 game. In 2012 the 49ers were 11-5-1; so by my math, this
puts them at 8-9 wins in 2013.
4) St. Louis
2012
Record: 7-8-1; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 5-11
Confidence
in Pick: 50%
Losses:
Steven Jackson, Danny Amendola
Pickups:
Jake Long, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, Alec Ogletree
Reasons
for Optimism:
Tavon
Austin – The Rams finally went and got Bradford a 1st round
talent at WR. Austin is a fast and exciting player that can definitely cause
some issues for opposing defenses.
Defense
– The Rams had a pretty solid defense in 2012 and now add Alec Ogletree. As
long as Ogletree stays out of trouble (a big if), this should be an even better
defense in 2013.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Sam
Bradford – He hasn’t been terrible, but, he also has not played up to his
#1 overall draft status (or his enormous contract). While he hasn’t had great
WRs throughout his career, he has had one of the best RBs in the past 10 years
(Steven Jackson) and his WRs have been good enough (Lloyd, Amendola, etc). We
keep waiting for Bradford to have a breakout year; I am just not sure it is
ever going to come.
Tavon
Austin – Sure, he has talent and is incredibly exciting to watch, but I
have a tough time betting on a 5’8” 174 lb WR – and those numbers may be
generous. He is difficult to hit, but if he does get hit, it could be ugly. I
just don’t see Austin and Cook providing a significant upgrade to an offense
that lost Jackson and Amendola.
No
More Steven Jackson – While he was no longer the player he once was, I have
a tough time believing the team won’t notice a fairly significant drop off
between Jackson and Darryl Richardson. I think Richardson will have a decent
season, but defenses won’t need to provide the same attention to Richardson as
they had to provide Stevens.
The
NFC West – This is a tough division with a lot of talent and I believe when
it comes to talent, the Rams are still at the bottom of the list.
Overall:
I see the Rams as a tough opponent and
quality team, but as I stated before, they are still the least talented team in
their division. No matter how you slice it, when every team in your division
has more talent and more experience, it will be an uphill battle.
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