What to Look For: Bengals v Packers – Week 3

With the offensives both teams possess, this game could end up being the type of shootout determined by who has the ball last. If ever there was a team against which the Bengals could not afford turnovers and their 84 yards of penalties, the Packers would be that team. If the Bengals can play a pretty clean game, they have a good shot at the Packers.

 What to Look For….

 

When the Packers Run the Ball:

It sounds like Lacey will be down this week with a concussion meaning James Starks should be the guy. James Starks had 123 yards last week – the Packers 1^st 100 rusher in 40 games (January 9^th, 2010 – Starks) – but that was against the 32^nd ranked Redskins defense. Don’t expect the same against a Bengals team giving up less than 63 yards per game in the rush.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Packers Throw the Ball:

The Bengals should be able to shut down the Packers running attack and make the Packers one-dimensional…not necessarily a win against a guy like Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is averaging 400+ yards per game (leads NFL), 3.5 TD/g and a 127 rating. The Bengals have a good defense, but so do the 49ers and Rodgers lit them up for 333 yards and 3 TDs. Don’t expect the Bengals to stop Rodgers, the key will be slowing him down enough – a tough task for a secondary riddled with injuries (Kirkpatrick, Jones, Ghee) and needed to stop 3 top tier WRs (Nelson, Cobb and Jones) and a top TE (Finley). Key to slowing this passing attack will be tackling – a fundamental football skill but not an easy thing to do against the Packers. In week 2 Rodgers threw for 480 yards – 295 of which were YAC. Rodgers will complete the pass, the key will be can the Bengals get the receiver on the ground after the catch. Sunday the Bengals really will be looking at the DL for stopping Rodgers. The best way to stop Rodgers is not with secondary play, it is with getting him on the ground and knocking the ball out of his hands. If the DL can get to Rodgers, the Bengals have a good chance. If they can’t, they better be able to match the Packers point for point or it could get ugly quick.

*Quick Note: The Bengals have the longest active streak without allowing a 300 yard passer (16 games) – that streak will be challenged (and likely broken with Rodgers coming to town). BTW the answer to that trivia question….Ryan freakin Tannehill  - week 2 of 2012.

Advantage: Packers

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

GB does not have a particularly stout run defense. The Packers are 16^th against the rush after facing the T-17^th (SF) and 19^th (Wash) ranked rushing attacks. While the Bengals come in with just the T-17^th rushing attack, they feature something the 49ers or Redskins did not, a good 1-2 punch. BJGE and Giovani Bernard are a perfect complement of power (BJGE) and finesse (Bernard). Look for both to have big games running the ball and look for Bernard to take advantage in the passing game. The Bengals will use the running game to keep the Packers defense honest and to keep the ball away from Rodgers. The more they can control the ball, the better chance they have to win.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

The Packers have faced two teams whose QBs are known more for running than throwing, and whose top WRs are Anquan Boldin and Pierre Garcon and the Packers pass defense is still ranked 30^th. Now they get a guy by the name of AJ Green and the 14^th ranked passing attack despite facing two top defenses (Chicago and Pittsburgh). How bad is the GB pass defense? Colin Kaepernick averages 217 yards passing per game against teams not named the Packers and 336.5 ypg against teams named the Packers – so Dalton should be able to move the ball through the air. The 2 TE sets, along with Green, should cause issues for the Packers and the Bengals OL should be able to keep Dalton clean. As long as Dalton protects the ball, he should be able to have a big day and have a chance to hang with the NFL’s best QB.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Coaches:

If the goal of coaching is to be undisciplined, unprepared and manage the game (specifically TOs and ends of halves) the way a teenage girl manages her text messages, then Marvin Lewis has the advantage. If however, that is not the goal, Mike Sherman has the advantage. I believe the goal is not the former, therefore I give Sherman the nod – the very big nod here.

Advantage: Packers

 

Key to the Game:

The ability of the Bengals to pressure on – and more importantly sack - Rodgers. Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL, but all QBs struggle from their back. They have to actually sack him and most likely strip the ball a time or two. This is the classic strength vs weakness – the Bengals strength is their DL and the Packers weakness (biggest weakness) is their OL. So, the Bengals should be able to get to Rodgers, they just need to make the most of their time in his backfield.

 

Prediction:

Call me crazy, but I believe the Bengals match up well against the Packers. They can stop the run, they can get to the QB, they can run, they can put up points and they have a defense good enough to slow Rodgers a little (emphasis on a little). Rodgers will do what Rodgers does (put up a lot of points), but, I believe the Bengals are more balanced and have a big advantage in every other aspect of the game. It is the Bengals balance and ability to score with Rodgers that makes the difference. One thing is for sure, for the Bengals to win, they will have to put up a lot of points (the point total of the last 7 opponents to beat the Packers – 30, 14 (at Seattle), 30, 38, 37, 45 and 34) and I believe with this Bengals offense against this GB defense, they can do just that. I look for the Bengals to win an exciting high scoring game.

Bengals 42, Packers 38