The South could be an entertaining division, even if it is
not a great division (which it surely is not). Can Houston continue their
dominance in the AFC South? Was Indy’s playoff run of 2012 a fluke? Can the
Titans step out of mediocrity? Can the Blaine Gabbert resemble an NFL QB?
1)
Houston
2012
Record: 12-4; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 11-5
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Connor Barwin, Glover Quinn, James Casey, Shayne Graham
Pickups:
Ed Reed, Greg Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Swearinger, Matt Hasselbeck, Greg
Toler, Erik Walden, LaRon Landry
Reasons
for Optimism:
Defense
– Even with the losses of Connor Barwin and Glover Quinn, this Texans defense
should be better in 2013 than it was in 2012 – and that is a scary thought when
you figure they were 7th overall and 9th in ppg in 2012.
In 2013, the Texans picked up arguably the best FS (Ed Reed) and get arguably
the best LB back from injury (Brian Cushing). Assuming both are healthy (it
could be a big assumption) this is a top 5 defense again. The Texans possess
the most dominant DE (Watt), the best FS in recent memory (Reed) and one of/if
not the best MLB (Cushing). Oh, and they also have a very good CB in Jonathan
Joseph. The 11 guys on defense and Arian Foster alone should be able to finish
1st in this division by themselves.
Matt
Schaub – Schaub is an average QB, but with Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels,
Arian Foster, and this defense, an average QB is more than enough to win lots
of games and make a playoff run.
Receiving
Corps – At 31 years old, Johnson is not the player he once was…but he still
had 112 catches for 1,598 yards last year! One thing Johnson has never had is a
true #2. The Texans believe they have found that #2 in DeAndre Hopkins , the 1st
round rookie from Clemson. Johnson and Hopkins, combined with Owen Daniels and
Arian Foster, make up a potent offense that is difficult to stop.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Age
– Age is not a concern for the entire team, but it is for 3 of their biggest
offensive pieces who will all be 31+ by mid-season – Andre Johnson (32), Schaub
(32) and Daniels (31).
Overall:
The Texans are a very solid and
well-balanced team. A very good defense, a very good offense, but something
about them just gives me pause. I still believe the Texans are the class of
this division and should with the AFC South comfortably, but I don’t see them
making much noise in the playoffs.
2)
Indianapolis
2012
Record: 11-5; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 8-8
Confidence
in Pick: 40%
Losses:
Dwight Freeney, Bruce Arians
Pickups:
Chuck Pagano, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Thomas, Gosder Cherilus, Darrius
Heyward-Bey, LaRon Landry
Reasons
for Optimism:
Andrew
Luck – Luck will be a special QB in this league – if not this year, soon.
As a rookie, Luck took a 2-14 team - who lost their coach to cancer treatments
- and lead them to 11 wins and the playoffs. That is impressive. With 4,374
yards and 23 TDs, Luck had pretty impressive stats as well. With another year
of chemistry between Luck and his receivers, and the addition of Ahmad
Bradshaw, I look for Luck to improve on his rookie numbers (not in wins, but in
stats).
Return
of Pagano – This team really rallied around Pagano and his battle with
cancer and his presence all year should provide a boost.
Ahmad
Bradshaw – If healthy (a big if), Bradshaw can add a running dimension to
the this team, something they lacked in 2012. In 2012, the Colts were 22nd
in rushing offense and their leading rusher (Vick Ballard), had just 814 yards
and 2 TDs. Over the last 4 years, Bradshaw (in mostly a shared backfield),
averaged 7.5 TDs, has had two seasons of 1,000+ yards, and has a career average
of 4.6 ypc. With his injury history, he likely will not carry all of the load,
but he can add a punch to this offense that was sorely missing in 2012.
Experience
– This was a young and inexperienced team in 2012. They now have a season under
their belts and a playoff game to build on.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Defense
– Here is why I don’t like the Colts to return to the playoffs. In 2012, the
Colts defense was 26th overall, 21st against the pass, 29th
against the rush, gave up 24.2 ppg (21st), and only forced 15
takeaways. If that isn’t bad enough, they lost Freeney and really did nothing
to make this squad any better. The loss of Freeney devalues Mathis and even at
his age, I believe Freeney is better than the rookie Werner (who I am not high
on). Outside of Mathis, the only other name on this defense is LaRon Landry, a
guy that is on his 3rd team in 7 years and averages just 61 tackles,
less than 1 sack and 1 INT per year. The offense is not good enough to hide
this defense.
Return
of Pagano – Odd that I have this as a negative, but, this team has never
had Arians on the sideline. This is, for all intents and purposes, Pagano’s
rookie year as a head coach. Any other time a team loses a coach that took them
to 11 wins and replaces him with a rookie HC, that has to be a step back right?
Arians is an offensive mind that is now in Arizona. His loss could very well
result in a step back for the offense and the team.
Ahmad
Bradshaw – Injuries. As good as he is, he has only played 16 games once in
his 6 year career. What is most alarming about his injury history is that
Bradshaw has never even carried the ball 280 times in a season. Only twice has
he carried the ball 200+ times.
Reggie
Wayne’s Age – Like Andre Johnson, Wayne has not shown any sign of slowing
down (102 catches, 1,355 yards and 5 TDs in 2012), but he will be 35 by
mid-season and at some point, father time catches up with everyone. Wayne and
the Colts hope it doesn’t happen in 2012.
Andrew
Luck – Despite his impressive stats above (and 11 wins), Luck had some
areas of concern - 28 turnovers (18 INTs and 10 fumbles), 54.1% completion and
76.5 rating. Not terrible for a rookie, but numbers he has to improve on if
this team has hopes of making it back to the playoffs and advancing. He also
looked very overmatched against good teams – 59-24 loss to NE and 51.9%
completion, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble and a 59.6 Rating in the playoff loss to the
Ravens.
Schedule
– In 2012, the Colts wins came against teams with a combined 71-95 record
(.427). Thanks to a last week win against Houston (12-4 and who had nothing to
play for) and a late comeback against GB (11-5) that number is not as bad as it
may have been.
2012
Losses – While they only had 5 losses, 1 of those losses was a 35-9
drubbing by the Jets, 1 was to the 2-14 Jags, and 1 was a 59-24 beat down by
the Patriots. Those losses tell me this team walked a fine line between 11-5
and 5-11.
Overall:
I am not buying into the 2013 Colts and
think they had a perfect storm occur in 2012, combined with an incredibly
inspiring situation with their coach. It was a great story, I just don’t see it
happening in 2013. I see Luck (individually) taking a few steps forward, but I
see the Colts as a team taking a few steps back. I think 8-8 will be the
ceiling for this team in 2013.
3)
Tennessee
2012
Record: 6-10; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 8-8
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Jared Cook, Sen’Derrick Marks
Pickups:
Chance Warmack, Delanie Walker, Andy Levitre, Bernard Pollard, Gregg Williams,
Shonn Greene, Justin Hunter, Ryan Fitzpatrick
Reasons
for Optimism:
Improvements
Along the O-Line – As I stated above, CJ was not the problem in 2011 and
2012, his line was. His 1,000 yards in those years should be graded on a curve.
The addition of Warmack and Levitre should result in a much better year for CJ
in 2013 and should allow Locker enough time for us to truly evaluate his
talent.
WRs
– While they lack the big name, the Titans have talent at the WR position.
Kenny Britt can be a stud. Justin Hunter can be a future stud. Nate Washington
is a solid #2. And Kendall Wright has big play ability. If the Titans get the
running game established and protect Locker, this is a WR corps that can make
some noise.
Ryan
Fitzpatrick – Not many teams have a backup QB that was 13th in
the NFL the year before in TD passes, but the Titans do. In fact, if the Titans
want to win now, Fitzy gives them the better chance. 24/16 TD/INT ratio,
compared to Locker’s 10/11. This is a team, given this division, could make a
push at a wildcard spot. If Locker fails early, I would not be surprised to see
him pulled for Fitzpatrick. With Fitzpatrick, I see this as a 7-9 win team
(closer to 9). With Locker, I still see them as a 7-9 win team, but closer to 7
(hence my 8-8 prediction).
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Jake
Locker – 10 TDs and 11 INTs, and a 56.4% completion is not good. Locker is
getting the starters job because he offers more the possibility of a long term
solution (Fitzy is a better option for 2013). Locker is playing for his
starting life in 2013 and if the Titans come to the conclusion he is not their
long term QB, they won’t hesitate to insert Fitzy.
Chris
Johnson’ Contract – We have to bring it up because since he signed his
$53.5 million contract just before the 2011 season opener, CJ’s numbers have
been down. However, like I said before, I don’t blame CJ. Yes, the beginning of
2011 was on him because he wasn’t in shape due to his holdout, but he has been
running behind a terrible line (and had decent success).
Defense
– This defense is concerning to me, and should be a concern to Titans fans. 27th
overall, 26th against the pass, 24th against the rush,
and 32nd in ppg (29.4)! Worse yet, the only thing they did to
address the defense is picking up Bernard Pollard. His swagger will bring some
improvement, but not enough. The best thing this defense can hope for is for
the offense to establish the running game and control the clock. The less this
defense is on the field, the better.
Shonn
Greene – Greene will likely take some carries away from CJ, especially some
TDs. But, Greene is a bum. Any time they insert Greene, even if it is for a 1
yard dive, this offense becomes less explosive, less dynamic, and they run the
risk of frustrating their best player (CJ). The Titans shouldn’t have signed
him. But, since they did, they would be best served to only use him to give CJ
a breather or replace CJ in the situation of an injury.
The Titans are good enough to surprise
teams and make a run at a wildcard in a weak AFC, but inexperienced and
inconsistent enough to finish last and severely disappoint. I believe they will
be somewhere in the middle.
4)
Jacksonville
2012
Record: 2-14; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 4-12
Confidence
in Pick: 35%
Losses:
Greg Jones, Justin Blackmon (suspension)
Pickups:
Justin Forsett, Geno Hayes, Sen’Derrick Marks, Mohamed Massaquoi, Marcus
Trufant
Reasons
for Optimism:
WR
Duo – At the end of the year, Shorts and Blackmon made up a pretty
impressive WR duo. Shorts and Blackmon accounted for 1,844 yards and 12 TDs.
Pretty impressive numbers for 2 guys who had Gabbert and Henne throwing them
the ball and no run game to speak of. With MJD back, these two should account
for 1,000 yards each (so long as Blackmon can stay on the field and off of
suspension).
O-Line
– Usually 50 sacks is not the type of stat that gets your O-Line on the
“Reasons for Optimism” list, but with #1 overall pick Luke Joeckel at RT and
Eugene Monroe at LT, this should be a decent O-Line and one that can establish
the run. It is easy for a line to give up a lot of sacks when the team is
always behind (and on their way to a 2-14 record) because the defense can pin
their ears back and rush the passer. Plus, they weren’t exactly worried about
the Jags running attack - 414 yards from the leading rusher).
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Defense
– 2-14 teams rarely have good defenses. The 2012 Jags were no different. The
Jags were 30th overall (6,088 yards), 22nd against the
pass, 30th against the run, T-29th giving up 27.8 ppg and
had just 23 takeaways. I like the pick of John Cyprien, but I don’t see him
making a huge difference. Outside of Posluszny and Babin, this defense does not
have much.
Overall:
The Jags have some playmakers at the skill
positions (MJD, Shorts, Blackmon), but they are terrible at the QB position and
on defense. That is a recipe for disaster. Mark my word, the Jags will look
better in 2013 and win more than the 2 games they won in 2012, but it won’t be
many more.
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