Week 1 sees the Bengals visiting a good Bears team that went
10-6 in 2012 but went through a lot of offseason change. Gone is Lovie Smith
and his defense first approach. In is the Offensive guru Marc Trestman and his
2 Grey Cup trophies. Gone is the orange barrel known as J’Marcus Webb (yes, I
spelled that right), in is a solid LT in Jermon Bushrod. I think this will be a
good Bears team in 2013, but getting to play them in their first game under a
new coach (even if it is on the road) has to give the Bengals an advantage.
With that said Bengals fans, this is a very good Bears team, and a loss on the
road to the Bears would not be reason for panic.
When the Bears Run
the Ball:
The Bengals ranked 12th in 2012 against the rush
and should be as good or better in 2013 with the experience of Burfict and the
addition of Harrison. The Bears had the 10th ranked rushing attack
in 2012, but that is a meaningless stat since the Bears OL has 4 new starters
and the team has a new coach with an entirely different coaching philosophy. Trestman
is known for building high paced, exciting offenses and getting great play from
his quarterbacks. However, the “traditional” run game is not what he is known
for. In fact, in his 5 the CFL, his RBs ranked 9th, 1st,
6th, 6th and 3rd respectively. That actually
looks really good…until I tell you there are only 8 teams in the CFL - that’s
right, I just brought you research from the CFL (see if you can find that at
the world wide leader)! However, Trestman uses the short pass and screen pass
as an effective substitute to the run game (think New Orleans and Sproles), and
Forte can be very dangerous in the screen game. With an aggressive defensive
line like the Bengals have, look for Trestman to try and use their aggression
against them and litter the playbook with screens early and often. If the
Bengals defense stays disciplined and shows they can stop the screen, this will
take away a dangerous dimension of the Bears offense. However, if the Bengals aggression
catches them up field without accounting for Forte, it could be a long day for
the Stripes and a field day for Forte.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bears
Throw the Ball:
This is why Trestman was brought in. To bring his
fast-paced, high-powered passing offense to the Windy City, and he has the
weapons in Chicago to implement it: 2 big WRs (Marshall and Jeffrey), a dual threat
RB (Forte), a big pass catching TE (Bennett) and a big-armed “gun-slinging” QB
(Cutler). The problem with Cutler (and all QBs with that “gun-slinger”
mentality – see Favre), is he throws a lot of picks (63 in his 5 years with the
Bears). The Bears organization hopes Trestman can bring the ‘Trestman
Effect’ to Cutler, and teach him how to harness his arm and become a more
efficient QB. It starts with the Bears offensive line and their ability to
protect Cutler, something they were not able to do in year’s past. The Bears
will be starting 4 new players on the OL in 2013, and while I think this group
will be better than previous years, they still have to gel as a unit, and the
right side (RG Long and RT Mills), are both rookies. This presents a dangerous
situation for Cutler and the when your first game is against a defense that
tied for 3rd in the NFL with 51 sacks in 2012 and now has added
James Harrison. The Bengals secondary is good, but they have a big question
mark at strong safety and no single CB able to shut down Marshall, especially
if Cutler has a lot of time to throw the ball. The key will be the Bengals
ability to get to Cutler and make him uncomfortable. If the Bengals can’t get
to Cutler, he and Marshall could have a big game on Sunday.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
The Bears had the 8th ranked rushing defense in
2012, and though they lost the name Urlacher, they gained youth and athleticism
and should actually be better in 2013. The Bengals, under Gruden, have
struggled finding a consistent running attack (18th in 2012) and
will be missing their Pro Bowl LT. While Collins is a good backup, he is a
backup for a reason. BJGE provides a solid starter and a great short yard back,
but he doesn’t provide much in the passing game and has little big play
potential. That is why the Bengals took Giovanni Bernard high in the 2nd
round and so far, Bernard looks the part. Incredibly fast and quick, great
hands, great feet and extremely exciting to watch. However, he is still a
rookie and until I see Gruden show me that he knows how to use BJGE and Bernard,
I have to give the Bears the edge in this category.
Advantage: Bears
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
The Bears have quality CBs (Jennings and Tillman) and lead
the NFL with 24 INTs in 2012, however, AJ Green presents problems for any
secondary and Sanu, Gresham and Eifert should be able to exploit their
respective matchups. The concern I have is not the ability of the Bengals
receivers to get open, it is the ability of Anthony Collins to keep Julius
Peppers off Dalton and Dalton’s ability to limit his INTs against a good pass
rush and aggressive secondary. If the Bengals OL can’t protect Dalton, and if
Dalton can’t protect the football, it won’t matter how open the Bengals
receivers are. Look for the Bengals to also try a number of dump offs and
screens to the rookie Bernard to try and neutralize the Bears defense. I thinks
this is a very even matchup, but given Dalton’s penchant for untimely picks,
Collins playing LT, and the game being on the road, I have to lean towards the
Bears.
Advantage: Bears
Coaching:
This is more by default, because usually I wouldn’t give Lewis
and his career .485 winning percentage (79-84-1), conservative style and poor
game management the edge…especially over an aggressive “offensive guru,” but,
being that Trestman has been out of the NFL and never been a head coach in the NFL,
and likely will spend the 1st quarter trying to figure out why the
goal posts are in the back of the endzone, I give Lewis the edge. A very
unconvincing edge, but an edge nonetheless – and an edge I may take back by the
2nd quarter!
Advantage: Bengals
Key to the Game:
I believe the key to this game will be the Bengals DL versus
the Bears OL. If the star-studded Bengals DL can neutralize Forte and the
screen game, and get pressure on Cutler, I think they win. If the young Bears
OL can hold their own and provide Cutler time to find his receivers, I think the
Bears win. With 4 new starters and a rookie right side, the Bears OL has their
work cut out for them on Sunday. Long and Mills may one day be a great players,
but with Geno “The Tazmanian Duck” Atkins pulling double teams, it leaves the Bears
2 options: 1) go one-on-one with Peko, Dunlap, MJ and Harrison – 2 of which
will be working on rookies; or 2) leave a TE and RB in to help chip or double
team. If the Bears elect to go 1-on-1 with the Bengals, I favor the Bengals in
all of those matchups. If the Bears leave a RB and TE in to help, that takes
Forte and Bennett out of the play and leaves 7 defenders covering just 3
receivers. Again, advantage Bengals.
Prediction:
For me, it boils down to the Bengals DL vs the Bears OL. I
believe the Bengals have the best DL in the NFL and I think the Bengals DL will
prove to too much for a young and remade Bears OL.
Bengals 24, Bears 17
No comments:
Post a Comment