Quarterback:
As much as it pains me to say it, the Steelers have a clear
edge with Roethlisberger. Dalton was better in week 1 of the 2013 season, but
Roethlisberger is 13-5 all-time against the Bengals (1-0 in the playoffs), 63%
completion, 22 TDs, 18 INTs and countless deflating defeats. He also seems to
have the ability to play better the bigger the game (see 2 Super Bowls for
proof). Dalton on the other hand is 1-3 all-time against the Steelers (and has
never scored more than 17 against the Steelers defense), 52% completion, 4 TDs,
5 INTs, and 172 y/g average. Dalton, unlike Roethlisberger, seems to shrink in
big games (0-2 in the playoffs with 0 TDs).
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RB
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WR
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TE
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DL
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LB
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CB
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Coach
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Overall
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Advantage:
Steelers
Offensive Line:
The Steelers gave up 36 sacks last year and their leading
rusher (Dwyer) had only 623 yards. If that wasn’t bad enough, they lost their
starting LT from the last 6 years (Max Starks) and replaced him with 2nd
year disappointment Mike Adams; they lost their starting G/RT from the last 6
years (Willie Colon) and replaced him with Ramon Foster, and now they lost their
Pro Bowl center (Maurkice Pouncey) and will try and replace him with their 3rd
string center Fernando Velasco. In 2012, the Bengals OL was not great, giving
up 46 sacks, but many of those were on Dalton. The Bengals did have a 1,000
back in BJGE and with the exception of Whitworth (out with injury), return the
same bunch. While Anthony Collins may not be the player or leader that
Whitworth is, he is a highly capable backup (faced Peppers in week 1 and
allowed 0 sacks).
Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs:
No matter which way you slice this one, the Bengals have a
clear advantage. BJGE is coming off a 1,000+ yard season and now they have
added the quick, explosive Giovanni Bernard who can be used as the lead back or
a WR. The Steelers were led by Dwyer’s pedestrian 623 yards in 2012. They
addressed the issue in 2013 by drafting Le’Veon Bell and picking up LaRod
Stephens-Howling, but Bell has yet to play with a foot injury, and Stephens-Howling
was lost for the year to a knee injury in week 1. That leaves the Steelers with
Redman as the starter (7 carries for 8 yards in week 1), the recently picked up
Dwyer, and the severely overrated Felix Jones (0 carries in week 1). Despite
the Bengals poor RB numbers in week 1 (19 for 63 and 1 TD), the Steelers were
worse (14 for 31 and 0 TDs)…and their leading rusher for the game
(Stephens-Howling and his whopping 6 for 19) was lost for the year. With these
RBs and this OL combined with the Bengals DL, it will be a tall task for the
Steelers to get the run game going on Monday Night.
Advantage:
Bengals
Wide Receivers:
Not surprising that the team with AJ Green would have the
advantage here as well. While Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones were disappointing
yet again in week 1, Green alone had the same yardage as all of the Steelers WRs
combined (162). While I like the quickness of Antonio Brown and Emmanuel
Sanders, they come in at 5’10” 186 lbs and 5’11” 180 lbs respectively (and
those are generous numbers). Cotchery is the Steelers biggest WR at 6’1” and
200 lbs, but he is their #3 and clearly the least talented of the bunch. None
of the Steelers WRs pose a deep threat and none cause matchup problems. AJ
Green does both.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
Another injury depleted area for the Steelers. While Heath
Miller could play on Monday Night (unlikely), he is coming off an ACL tear late
in 2012 and has yet to play a game since. That leaves the Steelers with 5th
year man David Johnson. Who, you ask? Exactly. He of 19 career catches in 3+
seasons. The Bengals on the other hand come with a 2 TE formation featuring
2-Time Pro Bowl Jermaine Gresham and 1st round pick Tyler Eifert.
Gresham and Eifert combined for 10 catches and 82 yards in week 1… more than
half of Johnson’ career totals (19 for 157)!
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
Though it may have been tough to tell in week 1 (0 sacks),
the DL is the strength of this Bengals team. They did get 4 QB hits on Cutler
and after a year with 51 sacks, I wouldn’t expect this unit to be shutout for a
second week in a row (especially not by this Steelers line). Despite 0 sacks in
week 1, they did hold Forte to just 50 yards on 19 carries. I would expect
something similar in week 2 being that Forte is 10 times better than any back
in Pittsburgh and the Bears line is better than that of the Steelers. The
Steelers DL did a pretty good job on Chris Johnson in week 1 (25 for 70), but
like the Bengals DL, they were also shut out in the sack category in week 1
(Polamalu got 1). With the loss of Casey Hampton, this 3-4 defense has lost
some of its effectiveness and Brett Kiesel will be 35 by week 3.
Advantage: Bengals
Linebackers:
With Foote, I don’t believe this is close. With their leader
in the middle (Foote) out for the year and Jarvis Jones’ health in question, I
have to give the Bengals the slightest edge simply because I believe Vontaze
Burfict and James Harrison offer more big play potential than the Steelers LBs.
Advantage: Bengals
Cornerbacks:
The Bengals have 4 CBs (Hall, Newman, Jones, Kirkpatrick)
that would likely all start above the 2 starters in Pittsburgh (Ike Taylor and
Cortez Allen) and all 4 should be able to cover Brown and Sanders with little
help. Taylor and Allen will need lots of help on Green, leaving the other
1-on-1 with Sanu or Jones, a matchup the Bengals should be able to exploit.
Advantage: Bengals
Safeties:
The Steelers have a clear edge at the safety position.
Polamalu and Clark make up the best safety duo in the league. While Reggie
Nelson is a good free safety and could be considered comparable to Ryan Clark,
whoever starts next to Nelson is a borderline NFL starter at best and certainly
can’t hold a candle to Polamalu.
Advantage: Steelers
Kicker:
If both are healthy, this is probably a push. With Suisham
nursing a hamstring injury, the Steelers will either play Suisham with an iffy
hamstring, or Cinnamon Shayne Graham. No matter which way the Steelers go, it
will give Nugent and the Bengals an edge in the kicking game.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaches:
After last week’s debacle, I may revert back to my default
rule…every team has the coaching advantage over the Bengals. The Steelers
especially. Steelers fans may be getting antsy with Tomlin, but Steelers fans
don’t have any clue what a “bad” coach is. Tomlin may be coming off a down year
and a disappointing week 1, but Lewis is coming off a disappointing career (at
least when it comes to big games). Tomlin has 1 Super Bowl ring and 1 Super
Bowl appearance. Lewis has 0 playoff wins in 4 tries, has been questioned for
years about his ability to prepare his players for big games, and seems to be
overwhelmed himself by the timeout and replay process.
Advantage:
Steelers
Overall:
Very few times in my life can I say the Bengals were the
better team and the team with more talent when they played the Steelers. This
year, the talent level between these two teams is not even close. On paper, the
Bengals talent overwhelms the Steelers, and on paper, this shouldn’t be a close
game. Unfortunately for Bengals fans, this game will be played on a football
field and in front of the the entire nation on MNF, not on paper. So, while the
Bengals have a clear edge at nearly every position on the field, the Steelers
have a clear edge at the 2 most important spots – quarterback and head coach –
and advantages at those two spots can (and have many of times) overcome any
talent differential (see the last 13 years of Brady and Belichick for a good
example). While the paper matchup says the Bengals should win comfortable, I
know better than to go by strictly paper – especially when it involves the
Bengals versus the Steelers. Therefore, I see this game closer than it should
be, but I still give the Bengals the advantage.
Overall Advantage:
Bengals
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