I believe the AFC North is by far the best (and deepest)
division in the AFC. The AFC North is the home of the Super Bowl Champion
Ravens, the up and coming Bengals, the veteran Steelers and the improved
Browns. Can the Ravens defend their crown? Can the Bengals take the next step?
Can the Steelers keep their window open? And can the Browns turn potential into
victories?
1)
Bengals
2012
Record: 10-6; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 11-5
Confidence
in Pick: 40%
Losses:
Manny Lawson, Bruce Gradkowski, Thomas Howard, Pat Simms
Pickups:
James Harrison, Josh Johnson, Tyler Eifert, Giovanni Bernard
Reasons
for Optimism:
Andy
Dalton – Say what you want about Dalton, but only 3 QBs in the history of
the NFL have thrown for 20+ TDs in each of their first 2 seasons, Marino,
Peyton Manning, and Andy Dalton. That is amazing company. Dalton, in his first
two years has also done something no Bengals QB has done since Kenny Anderson,
and that is lead the Bengals to back-to-back playoff appearances. That’s not to
say I don’t have my concerns about Dalton (I most certainly do), but let those
facts sink in. With the exception of INTs, Dalton improved in every major
category in his second year, and did so without having a #2 receiver. If Dalton
threw for 27 TDs with no #2 and little from the run game in 2012, I don’t think
30+ TDs is out of the question given the weapons he will have in 2013.
Receivers
– AJ Green is hands down a top 5 WR and now he has some legit receivers to help
him out. Green, Sanu, Gresham and Eifert can cause matchup nightmares for any
defense, especially when you throw in the receiving threat out of the backfield
in Giovanni Bernard. This Bengals offense should be fun to watch and even
tougher to stop.
Improved
Running Game – BJGE was a solid back in 2012 (1,094 yards and 6 TDs), but
he offered little in the passing game (22 catches for 104 yards) and defenses
did not have to worry about the big play. Now, with the addition of Bernard,
the Bengals have a RB that can catch coming out of the backfield and can also
offer the proverbial “homerun threat” every time he touches the ball. BJGE and
Bernard should make up a very dynamic backfield in 2013 and make the Bengals
offense very difficult one to stop.
Defense
– The #6 defense in the NFL in 2012, the Bengals forced 30 turnovers and were 3rd
in the league with 51 sacks….and they should be better in 2013. In the
offseason, the Bengals added James Harrison to their already potent pass rush,
get a more experienced Vontaze Burfict, and get back a 1st round CB
(Kirkpatrick). This will be a top 5 defense and possibly the top overall
defense.
Experienced
Youth – The Bengals have the 12th youngest team in the NFL with
an average age of just under 26 (25.91), yet, with back-to-back playoff
appearances, almost all of their players have playoff experience. There are
only 3 teams younger than the Bengals with playoff experience (Seattle, GB,
NE).
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Andy
Dalton – Despite the impressive stats listed above, I do still have my concerns
with Dalton. Mainly his ability to win in the playoffs – now 0-2, 56.9%
completion, 384 yards,0 TDs and 4 INTs. Making the playoffs is one thing, but
eventually, you have to win.
Marvin
Lewis – Lewis deserves credit for what he has done to restore this
franchise, but that does not hide the fact that he is 0-2 in the playoffs and
has been thoroughly outcoached in those games by a less than impressive coach
(Kubiak). The worst thing you can say about a coach is that his team looked
unprepared, and in both playoff games, Lewis’s teams looked incredibly
unprepared and overwhelmed by the situation (as did Lewis).
History
– While history does not literally affect a team, it can weigh on a team
mentally. The Bengals franchise has not felt playoff success since 1990, and though
many of these players don’t remember the year 1990, they have heard the talk.
Overall:
This is not a “Homer” pick. This is a pick
based on talent and weaknesses. The Bengals are by far the most talented team
in this division (maybe in the AFC), they have the most balance, and they have
the least amount of weaknesses. If the Bengals have any Kool-Aid down at Paul
Brown Stadium, I am drinking it.
2)
Ravens
2012
Record: 10-6; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 9-7
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Darnelle Ellerbe, Anquan Boldin, Vontae Leach
Pickups:
Elvis Dumervil, Chris Canty, Michael Huff, Matt Elam
Reasons
for Optimism:
Defending
Super Bowl Champs – No matter what they lost or how good you thought they
were in 2012, they still are the Champs, and the Champs need to be respected. This
is not the 2012 Ravens, but they are no slouch either.
Ray
Rice – One of the best RBs in the NFL and most dynamic playmakers. If the
Ravens lean on him, he can carry them – for some odd reason, the Ravens have
seemed to not involve Rice as much as they should (1,143 yards is good, but for
a guy that averages 4.4 ypc and has no injury history, he should have more than
257 carries).
Defensive
Line – Though the Ravens lost a lot on offense and defense in the
offseason, one place they should be stronger is along the line. With Ngata,
Canty, Suggs, Dumervil and Upshaw the Ravens should still be able to get after
the QB, and any time you can get to the QB, your defense will look good.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Joe
Flacco – Flacco gambled big time and won. Baltimore now has a $20 million
QB that has never thrown for 4,000 yards or 25 TDS and has a career completion
percentage of just 60.5% - in fact, Flacco’s completion percentage has not been
over 60% since 2010. In his 5 years in the league, Flacco has averaged 20 TDs,
11 INTs, 3,625 yards and an 86.2 rating. Not exactly $20 million stats. Flacco
can look brilliant one series and clueless the next. While I do not understand
the QBR stat, I do know that 50.0 is deemed average, and in 2012, Flacco had 8
games under 50.0, 6 games under 25.1, 3 games under 8.0 and 2 games under 1.0!
Maybe he turned over a new leaf, I just don’t think he did.
Receivers
– Torrey Smith is a good deep threat, but he has yet to show that he is an
all-around WR. With the loss of Boldin (their best all-around WR) and Pitta
(Flacco’s safety blanket), the Ravens are left to lean on Jacoby Jones…he of
406 yards in 2012.
Loss
of Leadership – Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were no longer the players they once
were, but what they gave this team from a leadership standpoint cannot be
measured. Who picks that up? Flacco? Suggs? Not sure, but I know there will be
a drop from Lewis and Reed.
History
– No team has gone to, or won, back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2004 and 2005
Patriots.
Overall:
The Ravens were not a great team in 2012,
they just caught fire (and luck) at the right time. This is a team that wasn’t
far from not even making the 2012 playoffs: lost to the 4-12 Eagles, beat the
2-14 Chiefs 9-6, lost to the 7-9 Chargers and were beat by 30 by the Texans. To
top it off, they lost more in the offseason than they gained. The Ravens will
likely find themselves battling for 2nd place in the division and
for a playoff spot.
3)
Steelers
2012
Record: 8-8; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 9-7
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Mike Wallace, Max Starks, Rashard Mendenhall, James Harrison, Keenan Lewis,
Willie Colon, Casey Hampton
Pickups:
Jarvis Jones, Bruce Gradkowski, William Gay, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Felix
Jones, Leveon Bell
Reasons
for Optimism:
Ben
Roethlisberger – Like him or not, the guy wins (career .690 win percentage)
and can never be counted out. The most impressive part about Roethlisberger is
his ability to extend a play and kill teams when it looks like they have him
stopped. There is not a QB in the league that extends plays as well as
Roethlisberger or makes more out of broken plays. As long as he stays healthy
(a big if with Big Ben), the Steelers will have a shot at the division and the
playoffs.
Mike
Tomlin – I don’t think there is a coach in the NFL I would rather play for
than Mike Tomlin. His team just looks like they would run through walls for
him, and that makes his teams very difficult to beat.
Antonio
Brown – At 5’10” 186 lbs, he is not your average #1, but his speed and
elusiveness creates headaches for defenses. I like Brown, and without Wallace,
he should see plenty of touches.
Dick
LeBeau – Possibly the best Defensive Coordinator of all-time. As long as LeBeau
is on the sidelines, the Steelers will have a good defense (#1 in 2012).
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Age
– As a team, they are one of the 10 oldest. But, take a look at the starters
and big names: Roethlisberger (32), Miller (30), Redman (28), Foote (33),
Taylor (33), Polamalu (32), Clark (33) and Keisel (35). Just for good measure,
LeBeau will be 76 before the season is over! Age and injuries could cause a
problem for this team in the short and long term.
Injuries
– Roethlisberber plays hurt, but his style of play causes him to get injured.
At 32 and with a string of injuries, his health is always a question. With so
many players over 30, injuries have to be a concern.
Free
Agent Losses – No question the Steelers lost more in the offseason than they
gained. Most notably: Harrison, Wallace, Starks, Colon, Hampton and Mendenhall.
Some of these may be addition by subtraction (Wallace and Mendenhall), but
nonetheless, the guys that replaced these guys are not at the same level.
Running
Game – At one time, the Steelers were synonymous with running the football.
Not so in 2012 (26th in the NFL). In 2013, they drafted Le’Veon
Bell, but he is injured, forcing the Steelers to start Isaac Redman. This puts
a lot of pressure on the passing game.
O-Line
– While not all the sacks are the lines fault, this line did give up 37 sacks
in 2012 and oversaw the 26th ranked rushing attack – neither of
which are good. To make matters worse, the Steelers lost Colon and Starks –
again, not great players, but more experienced and skilled than their
replacements.
Overall:
The Steelers are one of those teams you
never count out, but the common sense football part of my brain does not see
how this team makes the playoff with such an old roster, a poor O-Line, poor
running game, 2 top WRs under 6’0” and a questionable secondary. I won’t say
they can’t make the playoffs, but I don’t see how they do.
4)
Browns
2012
Record: 5-11; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 6-10
Confidence
in Pick: 25%
Losses:
Phil Dawson, Ben Watson, Frostee Rucker, Josh Johnson, Kaluka Maiava
Pickups:
Paul Kruger, Desmond Bryant, Quentin Groves, Davone Bess, David Nelson, Jason
Campbell, Barkevious Mingo, Rod Chudzinski, Norv Turner, Mike Lombardi
Reasons
for Optimism:
Brandon
Weeden – Like Ryan Tannehill, Weeden was better than I thought he would be.
He had a respectable rookie year, 3,385 yards and 14 TDs. He should be better
in 2013.
Trent
Richardson – He only had 950 yards in 2012, but he had 11 rushing TDs and
has the ability to be a stud. He reminds me of Steven Jackson, a good strong
runner who can catch fairly well coming out of the backfield. Richardson has
the ability to carry this team at times and can take the pressure off Weeden.
Defense
– This is a very underrated defense. Joe Hayden is one of the best cover
corners and the addition of Krueger and Mingo should add some playmaking
ability to this defense. Combined with D’Qwell Jackson, Phil Taylor and TJ
Ward, this should be a top 10 defense in 2013.
O-Line
– Like the defense, this is a very underrated unit, and very well may be the
best O-Line in the division. They should be able to protect Weeden and open
holes for Richardson.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Weeden
– While he had some decent rookie numbers, the guy will be 30 a few weeks into
the season, had 17 picks to his 14 TDs, had 6 fumbles, and a 57.4% completion
percentage. By the time they develop him, it will be time for him to retire.
Management
– I don’t trust the vision of the franchise. They traded away the pick which could
have landed them Julio Jones and they pick up a 29 year old rookie? I am not a
big fan of their new coach (Chudzinski) or GM (Lombardi), and question the
money they gave Krueger based off a late season run. Oh yeah, and their owner
is being investigated by the Feds.
Potential
– This team does have potential - Weeden, Richardson, Gordon, Little, Cameron,
and the new additions on defense - and are a sleeper pick for many “experts.”
However, the reason they are a “sleeper” pick is because these guys have little
to no track record of success in the NFL. To expect all of them to break out at
the same time is a tall order.
Receivers
– Gordon could be good, but he is suspended for the first 2 games due to a
failed drug test….he also tested positive for marijuana 3 times in college!
This sounds like an ongoing problem and ticking time bomb. One more positive
test and he may face a 1 year suspension. Little also has potential, but he
hasn’t seen a ball he doesn’t want to drop.
Overall:
While I see the Browns being better in 2013
and entering the level of competiveness and respectability, I still don’t see
this team getting more than 6 wins. Still too many question marks and unknowns
to predict anything better.
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